Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

So potentially the best solution to the Eire/NI border is to get within the single market with free movement.

The fact is that the UK as a whole is leaving. The EU have now decided to move the goalposts and make this a political issue. A concerning development.

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The fact is that the UK as a whole is leaving. The EU have now decided to move the goalposts and make this a political issue. A concerning development.

Only it seems to be driven by Ireland more than EU high command.

fatbeetle

We should cut Ireland as a whole loose, then see how much they like being in the disastrous EU experiment.,

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

But remaining in the Single Market means no Brexit so it's no solution at all.

We were told repeatedly that leaving the eu did mean leaving the single market. Single market wasn't mentioned on the balot.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The fact is that the UK as a whole is leaving. The EU have now decided to move the goalposts and make this a political issue. A concerning development.

What goal post has the eu moved? The Irish border is 100% consistent with their stance from the beginning

Moby

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The fact is that the UK as a whole is leaving. The EU have now decided to move the goalposts and make this a political issue. A concerning development.

It was inevitable and Irelands hardening position will be accompanied by a divorce bill I guess will be around 50 billion.

vivatifosi

cogito wrote: »

Not specifically Brexit related but not irrelevant either. In Germany, Merkel has failed to form a government despite the constitutional requirement that one must be formed within 30 days of an election or there has to be a rerun. AfD are screaming about why SPD, the official opposition are not doing anything about it. The president Steinmeier who is no friend of Merky is having an in camera meeting on Monday to try to move things forward.

It seems that Merky is on the ropes and unless she forms a coalition with SPD (which SPD are ruling out) she will either have to try to form a minority government or call another election as the Jamaica coalition seems dead in the water.

It will be interesting to see how the EU exploit the situation at their summit on the 18th December.

Despite Merky's teflon reputation, I suspect she's toast. And May has problems?

This is finally gaining traction as a story. Overnight, Merkel's attempts to build a coalition have failed as a junior coalition partner has pulled out, unable to bridge differences on immigration and climate. According to the commentators on Sky, Merkel now has three options:

1. Call another election, but if she does this AfD is likely to increase its share of the vote.
2. Try to form a minority government, but this has never been done before in Germany, so there are question marks as to its practicality and durability.
3. Try to involve their former centre left coalition partners SPD. As per Cogito's post above, they have already ruled out being in the coalition once.

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

If there is a way of making it work, it makes sense to continue with the land bridge. The situation reminds me a bit of American cruise ships and Cuba. For years, Americans were banned from going to Cuba, as were American parented cruise ships, even if they serve a British audience like P&O.

You therefore have this crazy situation where American cruises go all over the Caribbean but don't stop at the Caribbean's biggest island. However it is so big, you have no choice but to add another sea day as you chug past and don't stop. This makes no economic sense, it is just a political oddity.

It will be a crying shame for Ireland if they lose the use of the land bridge. It really is by far the cheapest, quickest and most logical route. Possibly good for air pollution in the UK, not so good for the seas. For the Irish, It will be like flying to Spain when the French ATCs are on strike. You get there, but it takes longer. However unlike French air traffic strikes, it will be a permanent solution if the land bridge is lost. That would be a very sad turn of events.

As you point out the strange can become the norm over time.
Everyone has got used to the land bridge. So much so I suspect hardly anyone unless directly involved new or thought about it.
Now it is coming to front of mind and in future a third country being involved in Ireland's livelihood the sea bridge could become the new "strange"
Perhaps you have read About the blockade between West Germany and West Berlin in 1948. Perhaps Irish politicians have been reading the history books?

With the possibility that talks on phase 2 will not go ahead before 2018 the land bridge is possibly in jeopardy.
With Britain "apparently" not closing the gap on the three key issues I will be surprised and disappointed if Phase 2 is triggered in December.
Everyone has their own agenda. Just like the Irish have woken up to the fact that if negotiations move on to everything else they will have lost any leverage they have I want citizens rights nailed down as well as this subject will also go on the back burner.

PS The overnight developments in Germany are likely to delay the Brexit talks which is NOT in Britains interests. Those Brits apparently enjoying Merkels discomfort don't seem to understand a stable German Government is in Britains and the Worlds interests.

vivatifosi

It's 1hr 49 minutes from Dublin to Holyhead. Compared to 19 hours Dublin to Cherbourg. If the same ferry was repositioned to handle the longer route, it would be able to handle significantly less freight. So you would need more ferries. Then you would need more truck drivers, because they would be inefficiently stuck on a ferry. Or to containerise the freight instead and use different logistical solutions, which means you need a different type of handling at your port. None of this is straightforward, all adds to time and cost to the Irish consumer.

This will be high on the Irish agenda but low on the British, as thrug points out. Fewer Irish trucks and trucks bound for Ireland would be seen more positively in most parts of the UK.

cogito

And of course, when gfplux refers to the situation in Berlin, that was dealt with by an airlift. You can't do that with truck type freight in the quatities involved.

Plus, if you want to circumvent the land bridge, the investment involved would be colossal and no one will do that until the border situation is resolved one way or the other.