Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

What has the EU done to pu ish us exactly? Beyond not letting us having our cake and eating it?

Thrugelmir

wunferall wrote: »

The EU's response will, I suspect, prove their intent to do no more than try and punish the UK for daring to leave.

How much can they force the UK to pay perhaps.

Norway contributes over £400 million per annum, and that's for a population only of 5 million or so.

Zero_Gravitas

PDQ wrote: »

According to the wording of Article 50 it is the EU's responsibility to negotiate an agreement. Read it. It says so very clearly.

Not this again. What is it about brexit supporters that they do not understand how negotiation works?

Once again: if, in a negotiation, you do not need to make concessions to achieve your negotiating objects, then you don’t do so. This is where the EU are at the moment. Just because they are not rolling over and letting us have our cake and eat it doesn’t mean they are not negotiating - they are just better at negotiating than the U.K.

You may not like it, but that’s the reality of the situation. And until we make a proposal to the EU that they believe is worth making a concession for, that’s how it’s going to stay.

The ball has been very firmly in the U.K’s court, and will be interesting to see how TM’s latest proposal is received.

Herzlos

All of the non-EU countries trade under some commonish agreement for a less closely coupled trade for relatively smaller numbers of trade.

We're perfectly entitled to chose one of those agreements and potentially try and modify it. We can't, however, cherry pick the bits of the EU we want.

The EU is negotiating with us as required. They aren't obliged to concede any of our demands. With the UK leaving, the EU doesn't need to consider the UKs needs.

Shoe on the other foot; what would you do if you were the EU?

vivatifosi

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Only afterwards will the full story be known. Like an iceberg. Very little is above water. Whatever ones view. The UK has to formulate a starting position. The opposition parties aren't offering any constructive imput either preferring to snipe and play their own power games.

I agree with what you are saying, but it's a great shame we have taken two years to decide our starting position.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

PDQ wrote: »

Hthe UK wants to leave the EU but continue trading etc. Why shouldn't we?

- The EU has said we're welcome to withdraw and trade with it on WTO terms.

However the UK govt has decided that would be pretty disastrous for the UK economy.

- The EU has said we're very welcome to trade with it and has offered us a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement along the lines of Canada.

The UK government has said that is not good enough.

- The EU has also said we're very welcome to join EFTA or stay in the EEA or Customs Union and therefore continue to enjoy frictionless trade and full access to the single market.

The UK govt has so far not accepted that offer.

- The EU has only ever said we can't leave the club but continue to enjoy all the club benefits, access to all theclub facilities, and not pay for it nor follow the rules....

But some in the UK still delusionally seem to think we should be able to.

.None of the countries the EU trades with is forced to accept EU jurisdiction, EU migration and so on.

None of the countries the EU trades with are asking for the same level of access we are... If we want to keep the same access we do today, which is far greater than any other third country, then we need to accept the rules that make that access possible.

Thrugelmir

vivatifosi wrote: »

I agree with what you are saying, but it's a great shame we have taken two years to decide our starting position.

There's been hours of discussion with the EU team since. The UK now has to decide what's acceptable and what isn't. Which red lines can be redrawn a little. The EU on certain topics has been intransigent. Time for them to either give a little as well. Unlike a couple divorcing. All parties need to maintain a relationship afterwards. Barnier cannot negotiate on his poltical principles alone.

Herzlos

What has the EU needed to change their stance on yet? They are playing by the book we helped right; we pretty much know how they'll react because we know how the EU works.

And why do remainers keep using the word intransigent? To make them sound intelligent and imply the EU is just being difficult? Because it's not quite accurate.

The EU are hard negotiations, which is why we did so well with them negotiating for us rather than against.

This all just smacks of brexiteers not u understanding how negotiations work.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The UK now has to decide what's acceptable and what isn't.

It appears nothing is acceptable to both the quitters and remainers in the UK government.

Not that it matters, because having our cake and eating it isn't going to be acceptable to the EU and all proposals so far have been cake.

You can't blame the EU or expect them to bend over backwards to accommodate the quitters.

All we know is that whatever deal we get, it will be worse than EU membership.

vivatifosi wrote: »

I agree with what you are saying, but it's a great shame we have taken two years to decide our starting position.

This was May's poker hand that she said she couldn't tell us about 2 years ago as it would spoil the impact it has on the negotiations. I don't know why anyone expects the EU to blink first, or to offer concessions. It would be like walking into tescos and standing around expecting them to start offering you a discount.

PDQ wrote: »

Why shouldn't we?

As a third country we can trade with them under horrendously bureaucratic WTO rules, which have tariffs and quotas. The reason we begged to join the EC in the first place was because trading under WTO rules is not good for us.

If we want the same access as we currently have, and most people who ask that question believe they have some weird right to, then no it's not possible.

Freedom of movement is necessary because otherwise governments will use work permits as ways of preventing companies doing business. Oh dear sorry, we've had to decline all the work permits for your drivers, so you can't deliver the goods into the UK. No you can't go to the ECJ anymore, soz.

And yeah, governments pull that all of the time. But in the EU they created a level playing field.

PDQ wrote: »

None of the countries the EU trades with is forced to accept EU jurisdiction, EU migration and so on.

Norway and Switzerland disagree with you. They both have to accept free movement.

Norway has to accept rulings of the EFTA court, which is pretty similar to the ECJ in a lot of respects.

Switzerland is more complex.

I'm not sure why people are so upset about the ECJ, it's actually been very good for us. I will mourn it's loss, as will a lot of people who will lose it's protection.

PDQ wrote: »

What have the EU done? Well for a start try not let us leave (as we want to) without causing ill-feeling.

A minority of people in the UK want to leave. Go look at the figures of the people who voted to leave and the total population. The EU hasn't actually tried to stop us from leaving, it's the government who realises that leaving will be such a disaster that they'll never get re-elected.
.

PDQ wrote: »

Listen to the tone of Barnier & co. Demanding, dismissive, denigrating and derisive just for a start.

He sounds more reasonable than Reese Mogg and Bojo.

PDQ wrote: »

According to the wording of Article 50 it is the EU's responsibility to negotiate an agreement. Read it. It says so very clearly.

They've tried, the UK is as ever a petulant child.

Witless

phillw wrote: »

I
A minority of people in the UK want to leave. Go look at the figures of the people who voted to leave and the total population.

Thanks for that. :beer:

I hadn't realised that 100% of those who couldn't be bothered to vote really wanted to 'remain'.