Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

buglawton

Thrugelmir wrote: »

WTO isn't so bad as a starting point. At least the UK generates some considerable revenues that can reinvested back into the economy. Free trade is of major benefit to major corporations. Not the consumer.

Could you back the ‘not the consumer’ bit up with some evidence?

sevenhills

Filo25 wrote: »

Some of the more hardcore Leavers seem to have got a bit carried away with just how much of a mandate they have to pursue a deeply damaging cliff edge Brexit based on a 52:48 win in a pretty vague defined referendum.

I wonder if our Governemnt feel the same way? As it was a 52/48 vote, the majority want a soft Brexit, free trade rules is the extreme result.
I do feel many people want immigration largely reduced, but I dont feel that is practical.
100 years ago, people did not travel miles to work to find work, but these days work and holidays is international.
Wanting to turn back time is akin to being a luddite.

phillw

sevenhills wrote: »

As it was a 52/48 vote, the majority want a soft Brexit,

The majority of those who were allowed to vote in the referendum and actually did so. It's a clear minority in terms of the will of the people that want any kind of brexit.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

At least the UK generates some considerable revenues that can reinvested back into the economy.

Trading on WTO terms will give us less money than when we trade with the rest of the world through the EU. It's a pretty terrible starting point, one that led us being forced to join the EC.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Free trade is of major benefit to major corporations. Not the consumer.

How can you separate the two? By definition major corporations sell to a lot of consumers, or they aren't major corporations. If you expect that they'll just have to tighten their belts and absorb any extra costs, because of the will of the people should be respected, then I think you may have issues understanding cause and effect.

If anything the problems of major corporations hits consumers harder.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

But the UK is leaving. Not an option to remain in.

So an end to democracy then.

cogito wrote: »

Quite. Any deal has to get past 27 EU parliaments, our own, MEPS and the European Commission. What are the chances of that?

Absolutely none. EU membership was our best option, everything else is going to be bureaucratic and painful. Just because of a minority of people (the 52%) in the UK want to self halm should not be an indication that it's a good idea. It's a lesson that they will have to learn the hard way as they are convinced it's what they want and what should happen.

Ballard

This’ll be dismissed as a new project fear by the Leavers.

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/04/brexit-greatest-negative-impact-regions-outside-london

gfplux

May continues to argue with her cabinet trying to negotiate a deal that is probably not exceptable to the EU.
Surely a modified freedom of movement would never be given to the UK

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Andrew Neil - Verified account @afneil

The May line is becoming clearer by the hour:
There is no majority in Parliament for no deal.
My deal is only one with a chance in Brussels.
If you reject it, Parliament will vote for EEA status, the EU will accept; and Brexit will be in indefinite limbo.

Things are looking up....

Carl31

Ballard wrote: »

This’ll be dismissed as a new project fear by the Leavers.

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/04/brexit-greatest-negative-impact-regions-outside-london

anything reported by the guardian is bound to have some degree of PF within it if its Brexit related

Filo25

gfplux wrote: »

May continues to argue with her cabinet trying to negotiate a deal that is probably not exceptable to the EU.
Surely a modified freedom of movement would never be given to the UK

Agreed.

Is it fair to say that we are ultimately looking at the following options being the only possible outcomes for the final deal based on the current EU position?

1. Hard Brexit, trading on WTO terms.

2. Canada style FTA deal with an effective economic border between NI and rUK and no economic border between NI and RoI

3. EEA Membership

4. Not leaving the EU in the first place

Good luck getting any of that through the current Parliament at present, option 2 would probably have been doable if May hadn't messed up the last election so badly.

Another GE could perhaps unblock the logjam, but the polls are too close for the Tories to want to call one, and Parliament may well look the same afterwards anyway, given current polling.

Matt_L

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Things are looking up....

Indeed they are and i much prefer to believe what TM herself actually says as she did at PMs questions today when she restated we will be leaving the CU, leaving the SM, striking new global trade deals, taking control of our own borders and so on..

But if it makes you happy, you continue to believe what you want...

Thrugelmir

Matt_L wrote: »

Indeed they are and i much prefer to believe what TM herself actually says as she did at PMs questions today when she restated we will be leaving the CU, leaving the SM, striking new global trade deals, taking control of our own borders and so on..

Mrs May strikes you as somebody who simply gets on with the job. Rather than looking to make news headlines.