Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Filo25

cogito wrote: »

To suggest that there is any possibility of a return to violence in Ireland whatever the outcome of Brexit negotiations is beyond ridiculous.

Apart from a few nutters known to the security services, there is no interest in kicking things off.

If people are talking about ripping up the GFA then I would say yes in that eventuality there is every prospect of a return to violence.

Filo25

Tromking wrote: »

According to Andrew Neill’s twitter account, TM’s Government are now telling Brexiteers that no deal is not an option and any rejection of the deal they get will result in the U.K. probably remaining in the EU.
Make of that what you will.

May belatedly trying to put some pressure on the ERG.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Tromking wrote: »

According to Andrew Neill’s twitter account, TM’s Government are now telling Brexiteers that no deal is not an option and any rejection of the deal they get will result in the U.K. probably remaining in the EU.
Make of that what you will.

Well it seems that reality is finally starting to set in.

Long may it continue.:beer:

fewgroats

"Any time the Remain side has to remind..."

It seems that you're going "La la la not listening." Remember the Brexiters are reminding the Leavers of stuff all the time. It's freedom of speech, or it should be.

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

May belatedly trying to put some pressure on the ERG.

But the UK is leaving. Not an option to remain in. Rejoining will likewise have to be negotiated. That's why a deal will be struck. Whether it's viewed good, bad or indifferent. From that point forward a new relationship will be forged.

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

But the UK is leaving. Not an option to remain in. Rejoining will likewise have to be negotiated. That's why a deal will be struck. Whether it's viewed good, bad or indifferent. From that point forward a new relationship will be forged.

May has got next to no chance of getting a no deal option through parliament, even the sane leavers who aren't posturing for political effect know it is a major act of economic self harm.

Purely on a technicality as it won't happen but from what I have read we wouldn't have to renegotiate anything if we withdrew our Article 50 notification before it expired.

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

Purely on a technicality as it won't happen but from what I have read we wouldn't have to renegotiate anything if we withdrew our Article 50 notification before it expired.

No one considered such an event. You could give notification after 23 months that you wish to remain. Hold a referendum , vote out again. Then give 24 months notice again. Right up Nicola Sturgeons street. Should ask her to be campaign manager. UKIP as a party would be here to stay.

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No one considered such an event. You could give notification after 23 months that you wish to remain. Hold a referendum , vote out again. Then give 24 months notice again. Right up Nicola Sturgeons street. Should ask her to be campaign manager. UKIP as a party would be here to stay.

Fair enough if the ERG want to try their luck let's push for a no deal on WTO terms and go to the country again with that or Remain as an option and see what happens, plenty of time for that to happen, before Article 50 expires.

Or maybe some people in the room could start acting like adults, and actually try to pull the country back together again.

Some of the more hardcore Leavers seem to have got a bit carried away with just how much of a mandate they have to pursue a deeply damaging cliff edge Brexit based on a 52:48 win in a pretty vague defined referendum.

Maybe the plan is to convince the rest of the EU that our political establishment is now so dysfunctional that WTO is actually a credible threat, good luck to the British politician who actually carries through on that particular threat though, they can reap the consequences at their leisure.

Thrugelmir

WTO isn't so bad as a starting point. At least the UK generates some considerable revenues that can reinvested back into the economy. Free trade is of major benefit to major corporations. Not the consumer.

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

WTO isn't so bad as a starting point. At least the UK generates some considerable revenues that can reinvested back into the economy. Free trade is of major benefit to major corporations. Not the consumer.

If you think the UK is ready for WTO terms of trading to kick in next March then I suppose if nothing else I should respect your optimism.

In these days of rising trade tensions it really does seem like an ideal time to try our luck on our own outside all of the major trading groups........

You can find plenty of committed Leavers around who think it is a suicidal option as well, largely because it is. Still I suppose if you want us to be rejoining the EU on worse terms in 5 years time then it is probably a great idea.