Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
But it doesn't take priority for a lot of people. I presume you don't live anywhere near the border in question?


Given that we're leaving and need to do something though; I'd also be in favour of either tearing up the GFA and sending the army back in, or giving NI a referendum on whether they want to have a hard border between Eire or what's left of the UK.

No I don't live close. I don't expect NI people to care for my region either. There will be more compromises affecting different parts of the UK than just NI. It's a shame Cameron didn't spell this out in his leaflet.

Filo25

Herzlos wrote: »

Even you must be able to admit that nothing he said is close to brexiteer warcry that Cameron promised Brexit would result in WW3.






In what was is it currently broken?
The practical approach to trade is open borders - staying in the customs union. Everything else is a less efficient compromise.


But it doesn't take priority for a lot of people. I presume you don't live anywhere near the border in question?


Given that we're leaving and need to do something though; I'd also be in favour of either tearing up the GFA and sending the army back in, or giving NI a referendum on whether they want to have a hard border between Eire or what's left of the UK.

Well the Army didn't manage to keep the peace in NI before the GFA so I'm not sure why it would change now, if the UK did unilaterally tear up the GFA that really would be the ultimate kck in the teeth for the Nationalist community in NI, and a return to violence would be certain.

I say that as someone who grew up in NI and comes from a unionist background.

Mind you, there do seem to be a few nutters on the right of the Tory party who view the GFA as a sellout and think the conflict in NI could have been won on military terms.

Filo25

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's not an either/ or.

We can have a Good Friday Agreement and a decent EU trade deal.

Eventually the government will agree what it is they want, what the priorities are and what they're willing to compromise. The cycle of having a team building day at Chequers, having a few photos of them smiling and then going back to briefing against each other needs to stop - it's creating a vacuum where the Rees-Moggs can breed.

If the GFA gets torn up, and the UK chooses to throw relations with Ireland back in time a few decades, good luck getting any meaningful trade deal with the EU past the Irish veto

Herzlos

I hadn't even considered the Irish veto. So you need to satisfy all of these contradictory requirements, whilst doing it in a way that satisfies Eire (who have no reason to concede anything). It's completely impossible.

Violating the GFA would be an absolute mess, and I doubt the army would do any better this time round. It might be enough for people to realise how high risk and insane the whole thing is.


For the record, my preferred approaches would be: Staying in the CU (it's best for everyone), Irish unification (it's best for the Irish and almost politically palatable), Telling the DUP to get stuffed and trigger another election, and finally giving up the pretense of trying to honour the GFA and either come up with some viable alternative.

kabayiri wrote: »

No I don't live close. I don't expect NI people to care for my region either. There will be more compromises affecting different parts of the UK than just NI. It's a shame Cameron didn't spell this out in his leaflet.

I honestly can't think of any other regions in the UK with anything like the potential consequences as around the NI border. Both in the logistical impositions of a border (those that cross it multiple times a day), and the potential violence that's been bubbling under the surface and never really gone away, that may be re-ignited by any border or construed violation of the GFA.


Lots of people risk losing jobs because of Brexit, but I don't think anyone outside of NI needs to worry about violent conflict.

Rinoa

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

They were however clearly explained in the official UK government White Paper published in March 2016, which was clear as to what would happen if the UK voted to leave.

Cameron/Osborne made it abundantly clear what would happen if we voted Leave.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ncvLcOECd8

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
I honestly can't think of any other regions in the UK with anything like the potential consequences as around the NI border. Both in the logistical impositions of a border (those that cross it multiple times a day), and the potential violence that's been bubbling under the surface and never really gone away, that may be re-ignited by any border or construed violation of the GFA.


Lots of people risk losing jobs because of Brexit, but I don't think anyone outside of NI needs to worry about violent conflict.

You asked me an open question. I gave a honest answer.

I'm not going to pretend that this is a priority issue for me. Only politics and religion make soluble problems seemingly intractable.

kabayiri

Rinoa wrote: »

Cameron/Osborne made it abundantly clear what would happen if we voted Leave.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ncvLcOECd8

It's basically what the leaflet said. I know Hamish keeps quoting a white paper....what percentage of voters read a white paper? It's why they sent out the leaflet.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

You asked me an open question. I gave a honest answer.

I'm not going to pretend that this is a priority issue for me.

And I've got no problem with that, it's an honest answer as you say. I still maintain it's a much more serious issue than a lot consider, because it's not on their doorstep.

Only politics and religion make soluble problems seemingly intractable.

Yup. It's a shame this is all about politics though. How do you propose they move forward? Which of the requirements do we drop?

Theophile

kabayiri wrote: »

It's basically what the leaflet said. I know Hamish keeps quoting a white paper....what percentage of voters read a white paper? It's why they sent out the leaflet.

The leaflet didn't say that leaving the EU meant leaving the SM either.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf

Tromking

Herzlos wrote: »

For the record, my preferred approaches would be: Staying in the CU (it's best for everyone), Irish unification (it's best for the Irish and almost politically palatable).......

Define “almost politically palatable” in this case.
It may be “best for the Irish” , but what about the British majority in NI?