Talking down the market

Rover

I've read most of this thread and some people may think it boils down to chatter between the haves and have nots.
This would do some people a dis-service. Information, sentiment and statement of fundamentals have all been on display here. This provides the Great British public with a basis to MAKE THEIR OWN DECISIONS.

You can be assured when the main stream press mute ideas, the insiders, the institutional investors and the owner of London's biggest EA have already made their moves. That just leaves 90% of the population.

As has been mentioned before, check the last 6 monthly share performance of any builder. How can this be in a vibrant, ever increasing housing market?

WTF?_2

mr.broderick wrote: »

In light of the recent "crash" threads which have had more emphasis due to the recent Northern Rock Debacle, can I just say i hope the people currently locked in rented accommodation due to the high prices ie macaque,carolt etc the best of luck with a downturn. I know you are desperate to buy a home and hopefully with the constant crash threads a change in sentiment might occur triggering a price crash then we can all live happily ever after and buy a home. Amen.

Any first time buyer thinking of buying a house at this time really needs to consider all the evidence before deciding whether or not it's a good move for them. Likewise anyone thinking of making an 'investment' in property.

The mainstream thinking has been for a long time that 'you can't lose out on property' and this has been the line very much pushed by the mass media - so those posting dissenting opinions pointing out what is really going on in the market are doing potential buyers a favour by at least drawing attention to the risks.

I'm at a loss to see why you are so perturbed by this. If you don't like reading opinions you don't agree with then either debate them or ignore them. Starting thread to whine about other people's views doesn't exactly give you credibility.

BobProperty

Quote: Despite being in their late 50s, on benefits and in poor health, David and Maureen Bradbury were given a 25-year mortgage worth £55,000 by London and Scottish Bank.
With their interest rate currently over 11%, the couple have struggled to make repayments. In June they faced a repossession hearing. The couple say they bought their council house under the right-to-buy scheme so they could pass it on to their children.
Interesting sideline, this would be acceptable in the US as it is discriminatory to restrict mortgages on the basis of age.

Conrad

BEWARE THE HAPPY - CLAPPY:

The happy - clappy is a person who is incapable of recognising a downturn until the very last. They will forever tell us "I'm snowed under with new biz". They exist in every business sector.

I recall many a happy - clappy in the last crash. One in particular stands out:
He had a few EA offices in South Herts. He used to say he was so busy that he was "having to do deals down the pub in his own time".
He lead a lavish lifestyle.

The bearish EA down the road who I also knew was the complete opposite. Very cautious and aware something was'nt right with the market. He could never understand how Mr Happy - Clappy was in a perma - boom, whilst he was finding the market so tough. He drove a basic car and was never flash.

Anyway a little way into the crash the happy clappy went bankcrupt. Now lives in a room above a pub. Lost his wife etc.

Mr bearish on the other hand was able to weather the downturn as he had 'margin' - dosh in the Bank and low debts. He is now retired and living the highlife, much to Mr Happy - Clappys surprise.

Many B2Lers fit the H C profile. Perhaps thier most infuriating argument is the "properdee only goes up, init".

Are they thick? Do they not talk to people who had negative equity for 10 years last time round?
Sure thier glass is half full, but the question remains; Half full of what?

Rover

A more pertinent point would be if the OP thinks the sentiment of this board has influenced HPI, a village somewhere is being deprived of an idiot.

For the benefit of everyone, Billions in one way or another has left or is leaving the bricks and mortar equity. Work it out for yourselves.

BobProperty

Interesting point Conrad. I am predicting that between 1 and 3 estate agents with offices in this postcode, will lose that office in 3-5 years and at least one other shop, which is property related, will also fold.

macaque_2

Some contributers are getting quite aggressive and denouncing anything remotely negative as a 'crash post'. This is ridiculous.

Good information is the key sound investment and purchasing decisions. People for example are open to criticism for posting articles which reveal disparities between open market prices and auction prices. For heaven's sake, the very name of this website is MoneySavingExpert.

Speaking of my own contributions I am not predicting where the market will end up but common sense tells me we are in dangerous waters. If someone asks a technical question I answer question, I don't volunteer my views about whether to buy or not. In the case of people buying a home to live in, the question of a crash is more or less irrelevant anyway.

In this whole debate, it is interesting that it is the messengers who are being attacked rather than the message. If a person posts an article which talks about big house house price falls, the poster is labelled an extremist. There is more than a whiff of witch hunt in this whole business.

This website provides home owners, renters, BTLs with information and an opportunity to debate. It also provides would be home owners with valuable information (both positive and negative) and as I said before, good information is the key.

SquatNow

House prices rise and fall in a regular 18 year pattern.

Tip: They've been rising for 10+ years. Guess what happens next?

twhurl

SquatNow wrote: »

House prices rise and fall in a regular 18 year pattern.

Tip: They've been rising for 10+ years. Guess what happens next?

They rise another 7+ years ???

RabbitMad

macaque wrote: »

Good information is the key sound investment and purchasing decisions. People for example are open to criticism for posting articles which reveal disparities between open market prices and auction prices. For heaven's sake, the very name of this website is MoneySavingExpert.

Good post, however - surely an auction is an open market so these people are just revealing that a particular property's value has dropped. Because person A was willing to pay X, but at the auction person B was only willing to pay Y.

I totally agree I think we are in very interesting times but I haven't a clue where we'll go from here. Another 10 years of double digit hpi? a 50% crash? If only I had a crystal ball or a time machine ...:think: