Talking down the market

Jason74

The "crash" obsession from some on here does seem a bit much on here at the mo. That said, prices are (imho) MUCH too high from a social benefit point of view (and I speak as someone who from some peoples perspective has "done well" out of the property market), and for the first time in a long time, there is some (albeit patchy) evidence that there might be price falls on the way.

Given the above, is it surprising that people who are priced out of the market are getting excited about the situation. If I was in their shoes I may well be thinking the same way (although of course a major HPC would probably only happen in the context of the kind of economic mayhem that makes house prices the least of many people's worries!), although would perhaps not be shouting quite so loudly about it !

mr.broderick

Jason74 wrote: »

The "crash" obsession from some on here does seem a bit much on here at the mo. That said, prices are (imho) MUCH too high from a social benefit point of view (and I speak as someone who from some peoples perspective has "done well" out of the property market), and for the first time in a long time, there is some (albeit patchy) evidence that there might be price falls on the way.

Given the above, is it surprising that people who are priced out of the market are getting excited about the situation. If I was in their shoes I may well be thinking the same way (although of course a major HPC would probably only happen in the context of the kind of economic mayhem that makes house prices the least of many people's worries!), although would perhaps not be shouting quite so loudly about it !

I agree with that post

ManAtHome

That's one of the problems - looking up a chimney is very much like wearing blinkers, but I'm sure nothing could possibly de-rail our "miracle economy".

PROFESSIONAL_LANDLORD

Let me say something about estate agents. You can bet that predatory estate agents will be lying to young first time buyers all over the country this weekend. They will be telling naieve people that properties are flying off the shelf,

Yeah ! but estate agents won't be able to talk the market up for ever If there was a crash. macaque I was wondering what drop (in percentage terms)would enable you to purchase your 'ideal home'

franklee

mr.broderick wrote: »

but i dont continually post the tiniest bits of evidence i can find to suppport these wishes unlike you and your kind, dont take it personally im just bored with you but who am i?

I never understand why people complain of being bored with posts on here. It's not as if reading them all is mandatory. The trick is to avoid the threads whose subject matter doesn't interest you and let those who are interested get on with it.

So you could skip this [boring] thread. Except is was you started it :rotfl:

PS Dearie me, forgot to say, I think prices are going down. Gotta go, I'm probably boring you :eek:

$$$_12

Hardly seems necessary to talk down the market as the media are doing it anyway:

BBC - Subprime victims
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7030723.stm

Guardian - Houseprices 5X FTB income
http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/story/0,,2184607,00.html

Torygraph - Houseprices on the edge
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/07/cmhouse07.xml

The Times - The pressure's on
http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/buying_and_selling/article2587795.ece

Daily Mail - Credit Crunch, House prices fall 0.6%, 1/4 of young people can't afford home
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/money/money.html?in_page_id=1804

The Sun - Homes in high risk loan fear
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article310869.ece

macaque_2

$$$ wrote: »

Hardly seems necessary to talk down the market as the media are doing it anyway:

BBC - Subprime victims
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7030723.stm

Guardian - Houseprices 5X FTB income
http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/story/0,,2184607,00.html

Torygraph - Houseprices on the edge
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/07/cmhouse07.xml

The Times - The pressure's on
http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/buying_and_selling/article2587795.ece

Daily Mail - Credit Crunch, House prices fall 0.6%, 1/4 of young people can't afford home
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/money/money.html?in_page_id=1804

The Sun - Homes in high risk loan fear
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article310869.ece

They have left it somewhat late in the day to come clean. Until very recently, the BBC have been little more than the mouth piece of lenders and estate agents. If someone like Foxtons said that 80 buyers were chasing each house in London, the BBC would report it faithfully even though 10 minutes of research would show the number had to be nonsense. Many BBC and newspaper reports on property have just been recycled press releases from lenders and estate agents.

The nation has been on a 10 year greed fest and anyone who spoke against the popular view has been vilified. Websites like channel 4 would even bar people for reporting unfavourable property news. The upshot of this mass self delusion is that a bubble was sustained way beyond its safe life. The result is that a lot of lives are going to be ruined.

Despite being in their late 50s, on benefits and in poor health, David and Maureen Bradbury were given a 25-year mortgage worth £55,000 by London and Scottish Bank.
With their interest rate currently over 11%, the couple have struggled to make repayments. In June they faced a repossession hearing. The couple say they bought their council house under the right-to-buy scheme so they could pass it on to their children.

Isn't it ironic that in his 1997 budget speech, Gordon Brown declared:

I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the recovery.

He clearly knew what damage a house bubble could do to the economy and how it could ruin people's lives.

firsttimetom

For me a 20% drop would be lovely, anything above this would be great.

I assume macaque is a first time buyer like me, and not being able to get on the property ladder is frustrating.

Nothing is selling in my area and we have 2 developments finishing, 1 of which is already knocking £10,000 off the starting houses (originally 190k, so about a 5% drop) and they are vastly over priced.

I would love to see a major correction and I beleive we are about to see it.

Romani_Ite_Domum

I have stopped joining in the "crash" posts so much as with so much bearish news in the media of late, there is less of a need to present the non VI Bull side of the coin (and so many others do it so well).

I have noticed that many of the "crash" threads have actually been started by the more bullish posters trying to talk the market up.

IMHO the dowturn has already started. Unlike stock markets, housing markets do not crash overnight as they are far to illiquid. We are starting to see MOM falls in many ares and I would expect to see YOY falls by this time next year. It could be 2-3 years until we see 20% nominal falls and be able call to the "crash" that we like to debate so much.

The question is: would you buy a car from Mr B?;)

m00m00

The extremes of both camps, bear and bull are tedious in the extreme. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, and my own inclination is more towards the bearish, based purely on current evidence available to anyone with google.