Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

gfplux

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Neither does abject panic when nothing has changed yet.
It has already been pointed out that we already hold the information needed.

According to statistics many non-EU citizens arrive in the UK every year and these must complete the necessary processes; why should adding those from the EU make any real difference?
Or are EU citizens so precious that doing so will somehow be beyond their capabilities?

No, like I said before you (being so pro-EU) are doing no more than clutching at each and every available straw in an effort to further decry the UK but without any basis in fact.

Some good news today, I think!
From the Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/25/eu-citizens-will-not-be-fingerprinted-or-need-id-cards-say-officials?CMP=share_btn_tw
"The Home Office has sought to reassure EU citizens that they will not be fingerprinted or need ID cards after Brexit just weeks after a leaked immigration document suggested new registration rules would apply.
Senior officials also told activists who head the3million campaign group that EU citizens already in the UK will not have to meet a minimum income threshold or have private health insurance to stay in the country after Brexit."

But and a big BUT
"Nicolas Hatton, the chairman of the3million said it found it difficult to believe government promises given the “confusion at the top” over post-Brexit rights.
“On Friday we had Theresa May saying we would have the same rights as before, and on Sunday we have David Davis saying we won’t have reunification and we won’t have registration,” said Nicolas Hatton, co-founder of the3million.
He was referring to the Brexit secretary’s interview with the BBC’s Andrew Marr in which he said that in future EU citizens would not be allowed to have a spouse or other relative from a non-EU country join them in the UK, as is currently permitted under EU freedom of movement rules.
“In the long run that won’t happen and we have to get to a situation where British – British citizens and the 3 million or so Europeans who are here – are on a level standing,” Davis said. He told Marr this was currently one of the areas on which British and EU negotiators had clashed.

This was released by THE3MILLION
http://mailchi.mp/the3million/et4z0u9759-739761

Dear fellow EU citizen,

This sounds like a placard for the3million rally:

NO CSI
NO MINIMUM INCOME THRESHOLD
NO FINGER PRINTING
NO ID CARDS
But this is actually the Home Office meeting one of our key demands following a private meeting with senior officials.

We thought we ought to make it public as the news would bring some relief among you who couldn't qualify for Permanent Residence or IRL and it would bind the Home Office to the policy in the future.

They agreed we could issue this following statement:

“Some clarifications were made during a meeting between the Home Office and the3million regarding some false information circulating around the future criteria required for all of us after Brexit to obtain the documentation providing evidence of our rights.

The Home Office has confirmed in accordance with the Policy Paper (of 26th June 2017) and subsequent negotiations with the Commission on Citizens’ Rights its position that EU citizens:

Will not have to prove CSI
Will not have to meet an income threshold
Will not have to submit finger prints
Will not be issued with an ID card
The Home Office has repeated that they are focusing on designing a completely new system that will easily allow EU citizens currently living in the UK to obtain documentation.”

Please note that the new rules will not apply to the current PR application process and the3million is reserving judgement on any future process until we are satisfied by the outcome of the negotiations on #citizensrights.

Instead, the3million is asking the Government to urgently issue public anti-discrimination guidelines for employers, landlords, public services and industries considering the current level of discrimination we uncovered recently.

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

Doesn't mention the UK. How many did we commit to taking under the scheme? I bet we met our promise in full.

The UK has spent large amounts of money providing homes and shelter for Syrian refugees in Turkey and Jordan. That’s how it should be done.

Thrugelmir

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

"Juncker to Merkel - EU needs stable German government to shape Europe"

Both Macron and Merkel appear to be in the position of leading their countries because there's no one better. Is being a European now resulting in a loss of identity. Judging by the initial figures for voter turnout. Merkel only musters 25% of the entire electorate. Not dissimilar to Macron.

The real issue for Juncker and co. Is that Merkel will have to play to the domestic scene this time around. When making pronouncements at EU level. Her refugee policy cost her dearly. Despite a recovery of sorts. Was she really saved by the hard line taken by the countries to the east to erect borders.

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

LOL. You do know that if the UK loses 525,000 jobs and 1.2% off GDP and the EU 1.2m jobs and 1,5% off GDP then everyone's a loser as a result of hard brexit?

The EU wouldn't actually fall into recession but the UK would based on current growth figures. That'll show 'em.

Only the hard brexit frothers would find consolation in the fact that it's worse for 'them' rather than 'us'. If they could take that, oh so difficult, step back they might conclude a hard brexit hasn't got a lot going for it. I won't hold my breath.

As we've always said, Everyone will be harmed if tariffs and barriers go up, that's a key reason we have so much leveredge, but endlessly Remainers scoffed at this.

If we went into recession that could well put down the EU with us.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

It looks like my suggestions of May playing an absolute blinder were spot-on:

Britain will honour its financial commitments made during its membership of the European Union after it leaves the EU, but that deal must be linked to an agreement on future economic ties, Britain’s chief Brexit negotiator said.

Then:

The EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier made clear, however, he saw the sequence differently. Britain and the EU would first have to agree on citizens’ rights, a financial settlement and the relationship between Ireland and Northern Ireland before a future EU-UK relationship can be discussed.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/britain-links-eu-divorce-bill-to-deal-on-new-trading-relationship-idUKKCN1C02C8?il=0

Also Davis is reported as saying:

There were "no excuses for standing in the way of progress", he insisted.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41382332

So given the current and recent past attitudes of senior Eurocrats, who honestly sees the EU agreeing to the UK proposals?


Remember that "get us out now" parliamentary petition I posted yesterday?
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/200165
Loads more signatures since then - but it's starting to look like we won't need it.

ETA: David Davis's official statement:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/david-davis-opening-remarks-at-the-start-of-the-fourth-round-of-eu-exit-negotiations

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I had to smile at this - an example of unnecessary EU bureaucracy in action:
"Car insurance gender gap GROWS since EU equality directive"

... men are paying an average of £170 more for car insurance than women. In August 2017, the average male policy was 27 percent higher than for a woman – £821, compared to £649.
Before the EU Gender Directive came into force, the difference was 20 percent.

https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/car-insurance-gender-gap-grows/

System

cogito wrote: »

The UK has spent large amounts of money providing homes and shelter for Syrian refugees in Turkey and Jordan. That’s how it should be done.

Should salve our consciences I suppose.

System

Conrad wrote: »

As we've always said, Everyone will be harmed if tariffs and barriers go up, that's a key reason we have so much leveredge, but endlessly Remainers scoffed at this.

To be fair you probably have said that. You've also said things will be just spiffy if we go the WTO tariff route too.

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I had to smile at this - an example of unnecessary EU bureaucracy in action:
"Car insurance gender gap GROWS since EU equality directive"

https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/car-insurance-gender-gap-grows/

Do you ever read your own links?

Head of motor at comparethemarket.com, John Miles, said it “shows how little difference the EU Gender Directive has had on insurance premiums, with providers still giving big discounts to women”.

However, Miles added that there’s unlikely to be anything underhand at work here. The difference in premiums is likely for numerous reasons – such as statistically higher accident rates for men, and more men than women driving higher-risk business and commercial vehicles.

“The directive removed the ability of providers to give default discounts to women; however, the statistics and risk models used by insurers mean that the result is largely the same.”

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

It looks like my suggestions of May playing an absolute blinder were spot-on:

I think we vaguely agree May's speech will be helpful in moving negotiations along but for very different reasons.

If it's a masterstroke to link the 'divorce' payment to future economic ties it was rather remiss of Davis to agree to separate it - he agreed that on day one of the negotiations.

How much time has been wasted?