Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

System

David Davis will kick off a new round of withdrawal talks in Brussels today as Brexit divisions in London threaten the stability of Theresa May's government.

The Brexit Secretary has taken the unusual step of staying over in the Belgian capital with the UK desperate to ensure progress is made towards discussions on a future trade deal.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-talks-david-davis-negotiations-michel-barnier-tory-cabinet-ministers-london-brussels-a7965556.html

Shows how low down the Brexit Minister's priority list the negotiations have been. An overnight stay in Brussels? He'll be doing a full day before we know it!

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Research by an EU university shows that the effects on the EU of a "hard Brexit" will be far worse than on the UK:
"Hard Brexit will hurt EU more than Britain, warn university researchers as divorce talks begin in Brussels"

The return of tariffs to goods and services would cost 526,830 British jobs and 1.209 million jobs in the remaining 27 EU member states, according to researchers at Belgium’s University of Leuven, one of the top 50 global universities. The damage would lead to a 1.21% drop in UK GDP and 1.54% in EU GDP, researchers found.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/25/hard-brexit-will-hurt-eu-britain-warn-university-researchers/
Paywalled but those without access will get the idea.

Not just some in the UK who's research suggests the EU will suffer more then; remember the German Deloitte study?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Amnesty International on the EU's migrant handling:
"Most EU member states have fundamentally failed refugees and asylum-seekers, shirking their responsibilities and leaving thousands abandoned in Italy and Greece."

Spain has fulfilled just 13.7% of its quota, while Belgium has fulfilled 25.6%. The Netherlands has fulfilled 39.6% of the target it committed to, and Portugal 49.1%.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/09/eu-countries-have-fulfilled-less-than-a-third-of-their-asylum-relocation-promises/

A_Medium_Size_Jock

"5 fronts in the coming eurozone battle"

Politico recognising difficult times that lay ahead - without even mentioning Italy's forthcoming election.

... the French president’s speech this week will look like a red flag to quite a few of Merkel’s potential coalition partners. As if that wasn’t enough to throw a spanner in the works for Macron, there are several other areas of contention.

http://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-angela-merkel-eurozone-france-germany-5-fronts-in-the-coming-eurozone-battle/

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Research by an EU university shows that the effects on the EU of a "hard Brexit" will be far worse than on the UK:
"Hard Brexit will hurt EU more than Britain, warn university researchers as divorce talks begin in Brussels"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/25/hard-brexit-will-hurt-eu-britain-warn-university-researchers/
Paywalled but those without access will get the idea.

Not just some in the UK who's research suggests the EU will suffer more then; remember the German Deloitte study?

In your haste to demonstrate that things would be much worse for Johnny Foreigner in the event of a hard brexit you've linked to a study showing 525,000 jobs would be lost in the UK. You'd usually dismiss that sort of thing as project fear.

So 1.7m jobs to be lost across Europe (including the UK) in the event of a hard brexit. Good to know - hopefully the hard brexiters will pull their necks in.

Although more jobs will be lost in the EU I'm not sure about the conclusion that the effects would be felt more in the EU.

525,000 jobs in the UK is 1.6% of the workforce (roughly)

1.2m jobs in the EU is 0.5% of the workforce (roughly)

Thanks for highlighting just what a mess hard bexit will be - good to have you on board HMS reality.

Backs up what Paul Krugman reckons

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/brexit-paul-krugman-zero-chance-britain-better-off-eu-leave-single-market-custom-union-exports-trade-a7965871.html

“It’s essentially zero chance that it’ll be beneficial on the trade front,” Mr Krugman said.

“I don’t think there’s any plausible case that Brexit is a good thing for the British economy as a whole.”

cogito

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

"5 fronts in the coming eurozone battle"

Politico recognising difficult times that lay ahead - without even mentioning Italy's forthcoming election.

http://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-angela-merkel-eurozone-france-germany-5-fronts-in-the-coming-eurozone-battle/

An interesting read as much for what it doesn’t say as much as for what it does.

The article speaks of a possible coalition in Germany involving the FDP and the Greens who hate each other so that’s the first problem. The German press things it will be at least Christmas before a government is formed. Merkel says that she’s open to another coalition with the SPD but Schulz has already ruled it out. I heard a rumour that the SPD have declined to get involved in a new coalition not because a period in opposition would refresh them but because they’ve done a deal to prevent Afd becoming the main opposition party and thereby deny them opportunities in parliament to initiate debates and keep them off committees. That would be intended to give Merkel time to squash them, have another election in a couple of years and then reestablish their cosy alliance.

As far as Macron is concerned, he’s proving a useful idiot for Merkel who’s given him free rein to run off at the mouth, making himself unpopular at home and abroad, especially in Italy and eastern Europe. Merkel won’t allow any of the things he wants to happen. De Gaulle used to say that Europe was France and Germany and the rest was just trimmings. Now it’s just Germany.

The article doesn’t mention Italy, nor does it mention Czechia where the populists ANO have led in the polls for many months. the EU has been piling pressure on the Czechs to adopt the euro but the Czechs are happy as they are, thank you very much, and are resisting as are others in the east. I think that Bulgaria now meets the criteria for entry to the euro but are also resisting.

It doesn’t mention Holland either as Rutte has failed to form a government in six months and the Dutch Supreme court seem likely to order another election soon.

It’s all a bit messy.

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Amnesty International on the EU's migrant handling:
"Most EU member states have fundamentally failed refugees and asylum-seekers, shirking their responsibilities and leaving thousands abandoned in Italy and Greece."

Doesn't mention the UK. How many did we commit to taking under the scheme? I bet we met our promise in full.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

In your haste to demonstrate that things would be much worse for Johnny Foreigner in the event of a hard brexit you've linked to a study showing 525,000 jobs would be lost in the UK. You'd usually dismiss that sort of thing as project fear.

So 1.7m jobs to be lost across Europe (including the UK) in the event of a hard brexit. Good to know - hopefully the hard brexiters will pull their necks in.

Although more jobs will be lost in the EU I'm not sure about the conclusion that the effects would be felt more in the EU.

525,000 jobs in the UK is 1.6% of the workforce (roughly)

1.2m jobs in the EU is 0.5% of the workforce (roughly)

Thanks for highlighting just what a mess hard bexit will be - good to have you on board HMS reality.

Backs up what Paul Krugman reckons

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/brexit-paul-krugman-zero-chance-britain-better-off-eu-leave-single-market-custom-union-exports-trade-a7965871.html

Ah so you choose to ignore that the greater loss to GDP will be from the entire EU at 1.54% as opposed to a single country, the UK and 1.21% ?

As for Krugman; why don't you tell us how much he thinks the EU will suffer?
:whistle:

BTW, like many others I recognise the possibility of potential cost to the UK in the event of "no deal"; what a shame it is that in your haste you prefer to ignore what I have previously said and instead attempt derogation.

Still, since you are enjoying what economists are predicting let's see how you like this from another economist.
Yanis Varoufakis.
'German vote shows federalism has FAILED' Yanis Varoufakis warns of 4 years of EU collapse'

The celebrated economist, who quit the Greek government in 2015, said the rise of Germany’s right-wing FDP and Alternative for Germany (AfD) parties killed off hopes of a more united Europe promoted by leaders such as France’s Emmanuel Macron.
Mr Varoufakis tweeted: “The 20% plus rise of the FDP & AfD means one thing: Macron's strategy for a federation lite is dead.
“Four more years of EU disintegration ahead.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/858428/vanis-varoufakis-former-greek-finance-minister-german-election-2017-european-union
*I post this source although it has been tweeted apparently, if you would rather be a twit.

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Ah so you choose to ignore that the greater loss to GDP will be from the entire EU at 1.54% as opposed to a single country, the UK and 1.21% ?

As for Krugman; why don't you tell us how much he thinks the EU will suffer?
:whistle:

BTW, like many others I recognise the possibility of potential cost to the UK in the event of "no deal"; what a shame it is that in your haste you prefer to ignore what I have previously said and instead attempt derogation.
)

LOL. You do know that if the UK loses 525,000 jobs and 1.2% off GDP and the EU 1.2m jobs and 1,5% off GDP then everyone's a loser as a result of hard brexit?

The EU wouldn't actually fall into recession but the UK would based on current growth figures. That'll show 'em.

Only the hard brexit frothers would find consolation in the fact that it's worse for 'them' rather than 'us'. If they could take that, oh so difficult, step back they might conclude a hard brexit hasn't got a lot going for it. I won't hold my breath.

gfplux

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/24/immigration-fall-hundreds-thousands-uk-becomes-less-attractive/

Is this good news?