Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

System

More evidence of May taking a direct hands-on approach in negotiations.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-donald-tusk-brexit-talks-eu-council-uk-london-prime-minister-michel-barnier-david-davis-a7967201.html

Theresa May is to hold talks with European Council President Donald Tusk as she tries to break the deadlock in Brexit talks.

Mr Tusk will head to London for a meeting with the Prime Minister on Tuesday after having a pre-briefing with the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.

It comes further Brexit talks in Brussels saw little progress, with Mr Barnier saying the UK had to settle its obligations to the EU before talks of a transition of future relationship but Brexit Secretary David Davis insisting there are "no excuses" for moving forward.

It's about time we saw the organ grinders getting involved. The monkeys (Davis and Barnier) are getting nowhere - I suspect they loathe each other.

Still the Telegraph haven't managed to tempt one of the big boys in cabinet to spill their guts since the Florence speech

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Do you ever truly read the posts before trying to quibble about them?

And yet you yourself quote:
:rotfl:

I read the article you linked. Then I looked up the EU Gender Directive. It's about much more than car insurance - it's about the equal treatment of men and women accessing goods and services.

It's from 2004 but there were dergoations for life insurance, car insurance, critical illness etc etc but these were overturned by the ECJ in 2011.

But, yes, the gap between yours and Mrs Jock's car insurance premium has increased so it is 'obviously an example of unnecessary EU bureaucracy in action'. Superficial or what.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

It looks like my suggestions of May playing an absolute blinder were spot-on:

I wouldn't call it a blinder, that was Davis' opening gambit which he conceded on day 1. We already know the EU hasn't agreed to it and we'll just look foolish trying to press the point.

The split is to be treated independently of any future arrangements. It's one of the only things we've agreed on so far.

Crashy_Time

gfplux wrote: »

We can all agree that there are over 3 million EU citizens presently in the UK who are contributing to the economy in a number of different ways.
At the end of the Brexit process 2021? the Government say that they will have in place a system that will allow in to the Country people (with trailing spouse and children?) to work in industries that need specialist workers such as engineers or fruit pickers.
I assume I understand that correctly?
What I don't see or understand how Britain will get from where it is to where it wants to be.
Can we agree that during this Brexit process/Crisis Britain need to retain those people needed by the economy and seamlessly arriving at the destination of "special type" work permits.
Again all I see is breaking the old to rebuild the new which is much more difficult than re-engineering the present system.
All I see, granted from outside, is no planning for that future.
Perhaps Brexiters prefer to break and rebuild but remainers should and are concerned at this lack of planning.

There are systems in place at present for non EU citizens/workers to come to Britain to work. This could be the model that could be worked on now without effecting the Brexit talks. This present model only has critics and appears not fit for purpose.
Example the well publicised shortage of curry chefs and the qualifying minimum wage that can only be earned in the South East.

Britain was critisized for being under prepared for the Brexit talks (yes I understand it was a cunning plan) it "appears" to me Britain is not preparing for the post Brexit world.
Britain should not be broken on the wheel of Tory infighting. The Government needs to get on with its day job much of which is preparation of which I see non.

Prime Minister May has asked for time until end of March 2021 that time is slipping away.

The key thing IMO is that the politicians making the decisions on numbers and type of required workers are accountable to the British people at election time.

Crashy_Time

Tromking wrote: »

A big speech from Macron today on the future direction of the EU, concerns in France already that Merkel's weakened domestic position will render the speech meaningless.
The post Brexit Franco/German strategy of 'More Europe' looks to be in trouble.

The speech should make good viewing then.....:)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Things are not quite going the way Macron would like in France.
On Sunday his party got fewer seats than he had hoped for in the French Senate and today's speech at the Sorbonne where he will ask for EU reforms has already had the wind knocked out of it's sails due to the results of the German election.

President Emmanuel Macron suffered his first electoral setback on Sunday when his Republic on the Move (LREM) party won fewer seats than expected in elections for the French Senate. What was at stake was whether Macron’s LREM and allies would win enough seats to give him a three-fifths majority vote in both houses of parliament, which he needs for constitutional reforms, including plans to overhaul parliament.
The vote, in which about 171 of the Senate’s 348 seats were up for grabs, consolidated the Senate’s existing conservative majority.

LREM, which hoped to win 40-50 Senators, ended up securing 23, and will be counting on alliances with lawmakers from other parties to back the government on a case by case basis.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-senate-election/french-senate-vote-is-blow-to-macron-conservatives-keep-majority-idUKKCN1BZ07C?il=0

French President Emmanuel Macron will push on with his speech at the Sorbonne today detailing a major overhaul of the European Union's single currency zone, even as he knows that Angela Merkel might not be in a position to help him deliver on it. Her conservatives were already resistant to some aspects, notably an idea to give the euro zone a multi-billion-euro budget of its own, administered by Brussels; her likely new coalition partners the FDP are even more hostile to that.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-view-tuesday/daily-briefing-macron-at-the-sorbonne-eu-vision-idUKKCN1C10PP

Relevant here why?
Because Macron has been the one pushing for a more-integrated Europe - which is instead looking in many ways less likely.

Conrad

Voted for Merkel: 15,461,932
Voted for Brexit: 17,410,742

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Because Macron has been the one pushing for a more-integrated Europe - which is instead looking in many ways less likely.

Does a bit doesn't it? I'll add it to the list of things the leave campaign predicted for the future of the EU which never came to pass.

Can I put Turkey joining the EU on the list too?

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

The WTO route will damage the economy for some years to come as we adjust (and negotiate to remove tariffs). Even if you're super optimistic about brexit it should be obvious that a hard brexit, at best, pushes out the breakeven point.

We're hampered economically by being in the EU. We'll do better out for sure.

I'll take my chances with WTO - genuine business owner entrepreneurs are confident.
Greasy pole climbing business Directors (not entrepreneurs) are more cautious. I find most of them pretty inept - my dealings with BT tell me it's run by people out of touch with the shop floor. These people have poor instincts and far too much reliance on committees and 'experts' economists.


Jump in the icy brook sink or swim, we'll obviously swim, we would have no choice. As I say remaining in the EU is a risk in itself. Remainers never seem bothered at the spectrum of risks of Remaining in.

System

Conrad wrote: »

We're hampered economically by being in the EU. We'll do better out for sure.

I'll take my chances with WTO - genuine business owner entrepreneurs are confident.
Greasy pole climbing business Directors (not entrepreneurs) are more cautious.

Jump in the icy brook sink or swim, we'll obviously swim, we would have no choice. As I say remaining in the EU is a risk in itself.

The argument that hard brexit is best is being lost. The cabinet seem to be making their way slowly to that POV. There are some people like John Redwood and the economists for brexit (Minford et al) who persist but their views are becoming ever more fringe. We've been in the EU a long time - it won't hurt to spend a couple of years or three working out just how the UK does approach life outside the single market and customs union.

I like the analogy that brexit is like jumping into an icy brook (not something you'd choose to do) and that not drowning is a measure of success.

A bit of anecdotal for you. I know someone who manufactures food products and their export business is booming - not in volumes but in margin. They bunced up their prices and pocketed the currency difference. Selling less stuff but making more money. Good for them but it would explain why the J curve is so long and, of course, you need fewer people when you make less stuff.

Had a bit of a google and came up with this..

Britain’s manufacturing exporters have “hoarded” the gains from last year’s fall in sterling by putting up prices rather than increasing output and sales.

The Office for National Statistics said exporters could have allowed their prices to decline in line with the fall in the pound, making their products more attractive to foreign buyers, but chose to boost their profits instead.

Illustrating the uncertainty following the Brexit vote, which has made exporters nervous about expanding production, analysis by the ONS shows that UK companies increased export prices by 12.7% year on year in the months after the referendum in response to a 16.9% fall in the exchange rate.

The figures will disappoint Brexit campaigners who have urged exporters to make the most of the fall in sterling by expanding production and increasing employment.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/15/uk-exporters-have-hoarded-gains-from-fall-in-sterling-says-ons