Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

AFF8879

You'd have thought the large-scale stemming of the migrant tide in recent months would have been enough to suppress the AfD from making such significant gains.

I think the issue is, once again, the rhetoric. People generally don't like being insulted, so labelling them as racist / facist etc when they have genuine concerns is a) unlikely to make them support you in an election, and b) makes them more likely to be susceptible to messages such as that promoted by AfD.

Yet the mainstream politicians still don't seem to get that point.

It's such a sad state of affairs when we all lose the art of intelligent debate and have to resort to name-calling, and where "protesting" has become so commonplace that it's lost all impact.

Herzlos

gfplux wrote: »

Fella, as it's your field perhaps you could comment on having a system up, tested and running to register all the EU citizens already in the UK and to register and monitor all those that will arrive after/during Brexit.

A system by March 2019 would be impossible , with March 2021 just being unlikely.

Big government it projects are almost always years late and millions over budget.

Same would apply to a new customs system.

fatbeetle

AFF8879 wrote: »

You'd have thought the large-scale stemming of the migrant tide in recent months would have been enough to suppress the AfD from making such significant gains.

Slamming the stable door after the horse has bolted impresses no one.

mayonnaise

posh*spice wrote: »

AFD third largest party with nearly 14%.

That's a whole % more than UKIP got here in 2010.

There has been a far-right element in European politics for a while now. See Wilders in The Netherlands, Vlams Belang in Belgium, AFD in Germany, UKIP in the UK, 5star in Italy...etc...Nothing new here.

So....what's the next election we have to look forward to that will signal the end of the EU?

gfplux

mrginge wrote: »

So the incumbent scrapes back in with a vastly reduced vote share and needs to rely on coalition partners.

In some countries that would be seen as a humiliation.

Being the leader of your country for so long should be seen as a triumph, for her.
During her terms as Chancelor she has seen....

5 leaders of the SPD
3 American Presidents
4 French Presidents
4 British Prime Ministers
5 Greek Prime Ministers
6 Italian Prime Ministers

She has just been reelected to serve for another 4 years.

Tromking

mayonnaise wrote: »

That's a whole % more than UKIP got here in 2010.

There has been a far-right element in European politics for a while now. See Wilders in The Netherlands, Vlams Belang in Belgium, AFD in Germany, UKIP in the UK, 5star in Italy...etc...Nothing new here.

So....what's the next election we have to look forward to that will signal the end of the EU?

Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey?
A tad complacent to think that the Eurozone's lurch toward fascism is merely something to be weathered. Merkel's weakened position blows a rather big hole in the German/Franco plan for 'more Europe'.
BTW, is it Italy or Austria next?

ukcarper

gfplux wrote: »

Being the leader of your country for so long should be seen as a triumph, for her.
During her terms as Chancelor she has seen....

5 leaders of the SPD
3 American Presidents
4 French Presidents
4 British Prime Ministers
5 Greek Prime Ministers
6 Italian Prime Ministers

She has just been reelected to serve for another 4 years.

May got 45.6% of votes Mercel got 33% who has most support.

gfplux

ukcarper wrote: »

May got 45.6% of votes Mercel got 33% who has most support.

I don't know.

ukcarper

gfplux wrote: »

I don't know.

I would have thought that was obvious, I'm not Tory supporter but it's obvious that a larger proportion of voters voter for May. May also increased the Torys share of vote in 2017.

gfplux

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I understand your concern but TBH this is more making mountains out of molehills.
Regarding migration - well, only following negotiation will we have an idea of how this will work. So far Eurocrats seem resistant to UK proposals, despite their own experiences and difficulties such as those with internal borders & migration issues.

Every person working legally in the UK normally has both an NI number and a tax number do they not?
Every person legally in the UK has what you might like to call a "paper trail"; a huge amount of information is already held - and not just by our government.
Not only the NI number and tax number spoken of above but for example an NHS number; a bank account; an energy/water provider; even the census, the next of which is due 2021.

Given that so much data is already available it should not be difficult for any government to introduce whatever system it feels is required, as Thrugelmir suggests above.

This is from the British paper on safeguarding EU and British citizens rights.

"17) All EU citizens (and their families) in the UK, regardless of when they arrived, will, on the UK’s exit, need to obtain an immigration status in UK law. They will need to apply to the Home Office for permission to stay, which will be evidenced through a residence document. This will be a legal requirement but there is also an important practical reason for this. The residence document will enable EU citizens (and their families) living in the UK to demonstrate to third parties (such as employers or providers of public services) that they have permission to continue to live and work legally in the UK. Following the UK’s exit from the EU, the Government may wish to introduce controls which limit the ability of EU citizens (and their families) who arrive in the UK after exit to live and work here. As such, without a residence document, current residents may find it difficult to access the labour market and services."


Those who have a personal interest in this do worry that Britain will not be able to process over 3 million applications for "settled status" and that during that process traveling through British ports of entry will become difficult.
In addition Any and all EU citizen presenting themselves at that port of entry will have to be counted in and counted out if they are on holiday. Does anyone think that this can all be put in place by March 2019 or 2021.
"It will be alright" does not cut it for those who are actually effected.