Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

Thrugelmir

Fella wrote: »

Automation, both the software kind and the robotic kind are going to make huge swathes of jobs obsolete in the relatively near future. In my own industry (IT) SDN is making it simple to automate standard repeatable configuration jobs that would previously have required an entry-level or mid-level Cisco guy to configure. The blue-chip I work for is literally doing this currently and people are being laid off directly because of it. This is going to happen across the board. The problem that will face developed countries much sooner than people may realise is NOT shortage of Labour. It's going to be the complete opposite. Shortage of jobs that require human intervention.

The UK currently lags well behind the rest of the developed world in terms of investment in technology.

gfplux

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And yet UK unemployment is at near record lows while UK employment is at record highs.

A surplus of Labour in Peru doesn't help the shortage of labour here.



Employers need labour today otherwise their businesses fail.

The longer term direction is that the UK economy is getting starved of labour and needs more people.

Largely because we failed to breed at the replacement rate for the last 50 years.



And you know as well as I do that large segments of Little Britain howl in outrage about the UK 'losing it's culture' and becoming a 'mini United Nations' when we import Europeans who are nearly culturally identical to us but they then they hear a handful of foreign sounding accents on their high street...

I can only imagine how outraged they'd be if we imported genuinely cheap labour en-masse from Asia or Africa instead.... And the good residents of Whinging-On-Thames then had to immerse themselves in actual, honest-to-god, proper cultural diversity instead of just hearing a few foreign accents from people that otherwise look and act just like them.

Like it or not there is precisely ZERO political will to do that.

Absolutely none whatsoever.....

We'll keep importing people en-masse from the EU because it's right next door, it's culturally near identical, and the well trained and motivated workers coming from workplaces with pretty much the same standards and systems can immediately fit in.

If, post Brexit Britain wants low cost labour how is that to be controlled?
Will a person be allowed in to the country for a limited time. How, given Britains past inability to control immigrants, will the authorities stop that immigrant disappearing into the black economy.
With no ID cards there is little if any control of any one in Britain.
I wonder when the new system of control and registration will come on line.

While posters debate immigrants and immigration everyone ignores the lack of systems to control all these people.

There are over three million EU citizens presently in Britain that the U.K. Government have suggested are to be (at some time in the future) registered and given OR NOT special resident status. Is that system being built, secretly, I think not as it will take a huge budget and probably hundreds of programmers. Will that system be on line before March 2019 or even March 2021??

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

If, post Brexit Britain wants low cost labour how is that to be controlled?

Like any other vocation.

The UK will be able to bring in any system it wishes. Technology of course makes this far easier than in the past.

Currently there is a purge on bank accounts. Many ways to find illegal immigrants.

gfplux

Fella wrote: »

Automation, both the software kind and the robotic kind are going to make huge swathes of jobs obsolete in the relatively near future. In my own industry (IT) SDN is making it simple to automate standard repeatable configuration jobs that would previously have required an entry-level or mid-level Cisco guy to configure. The blue-chip I work for is literally doing this currently and people are being laid off directly because of it. This is going to happen across the board. The problem that will face developed countries much sooner than people may realise is NOT shortage of Labour. It's going to be the complete opposite. Shortage of jobs that require human intervention.

Fella, as it's your field perhaps you could comment on having a system up, tested and running to register all the EU citizens already in the UK and to register and monitor all those that will arrive after/during Brexit.

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Like any other vocation.

The UK will be able to bring in any system it wishes. Technology of course makes this far easier than in the past.

Currently there is a purge on bank accounts. Many ways to find illegal immigrants.

I think you are a little optimistic about how quickly large IT projects are delivered, if ever. Just think NHS connecting for health that cost £10 billion and have been virtually given up on.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Connecting_for_Health

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

If, post Brexit Britain wants low cost labour how is that to be controlled?
Will a person be allowed in to the country for a limited time. How, given Britains past inability to control immigrants, will the authorities stop that immigrant disappearing into the black economy.
With no ID cards there is little if any control of any one in Britain.
I wonder when the new system of control and registration will come on line.

While posters debate immigrants and immigration everyone ignores the lack of systems to control all these people.

There are over three million EU citizens presently in Britain that the U.K. Government have suggested are to be (at some time in the future) registered and given OR NOT special resident status. Is that system being built, secretly, I think not as it will take a huge budget and probably hundreds of programmers. Will that system be on line before March 2019 or even March 2021??

I understand your concern but TBH this is more making mountains out of molehills.
Regarding migration - well, only following negotiation will we have an idea of how this will work. So far Eurocrats seem resistant to UK proposals, despite their own experiences and difficulties such as those with internal borders & migration issues.

Every person working legally in the UK normally has both an NI number and a tax number do they not?
Every person legally in the UK has what you might like to call a "paper trail"; a huge amount of information is already held - and not just by our government.
Not only the NI number and tax number spoken of above but for example an NHS number; a bank account; an energy/water provider; even the census, the next of which is due 2021.

Given that so much data is already available it should not be difficult for any government to introduce whatever system it feels is required, as Thrugelmir suggests above.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

I think you are a little optimistic about how quickly large IT projects are delivered, if ever. Just think NHS connecting for health that cost £10 billion and have been virtually given up on.

I'm aware that IT projects take time. There's already huge inconnectivity and access between different databases now within Government departments. The NHS project by it's very nature is extremely complex. Somewhat different to a register database.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

I think you are a little optimistic about how quickly large IT projects are delivered, if ever. Just think NHS connecting for health that cost £10 billion and have been virtually given up on.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Connecting_for_Health

That was four years ago now, quite a time away in IT; things have moved on.
Our NHS survives.
https://digital.nhs.uk/PC
In those four years we have seen continued advances in technology.

phillw

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Every person working legally in the UK has both an NI number and a tax number do they not?

No. You don't need a NI number and tax number to legally work in the UK.

If you want to be employed and be paid through PAYE & be tax resident in the UK then you will eventually need them. Most people want them, because they want the pension & other benefits.

This is one of the major problems with stopping free movement of people, because you won't be able to hop on a plane and work anywhere in the EU as a contractor. Leave voters have stolen the future prosperity of the children of the UK.

But if we stay in the single market then free movement of workers will continue anyway & that currently seems to be today's fairy story that theresa may believes.

kabayiri wrote: »

It is not written in stone that you need to import people on a permanent basis.

I guess if you can find a large untapped group of people to exploit and then send away to die when you no longer have use for them, then yeah you don't need to let them stay to build a life.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

phillw wrote: »

No. You don't need a NI number and tax number to legally work in the UK.

If you want to be employed and be paid through PAYE & be tax resident in the UK then you will eventually need them. Most people want them, because they want the pension & other benefits.

This is one of the major problems with stopping free movement of people, because you won't be able to hop on a plane and work anywhere in the EU as a contractor. Leave voters have stolen the future prosperity of the children of the UK.

I did perhaps word that a little poorly.
https://www.gov.uk/tax-come-to-uk
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-employee-coming-to-work-from-abroad

There is however a statutory requirement upon UK employers to ensure that employees are legally allowed to work in the UK.

" because you won't be able to hop on a plane and work anywhere in the EU as a contractor. Leave voters have stolen the future prosperity of the children of the UK."
You're a bit premature there; Brexit has not yet had any conditions agreed and finalised.
Plus how on earth did we manage before the EU - AND how come more Brits live in Australia alone than in the entire EU?