Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

System

kabayiri wrote: »

If a country relies on year on year mass inward migration, in the order of hundreds of thousands, then I contend it is a *broken* economy.

It's just economics. 'Broken', 'reliant' are words to paint a picture that isn't the reality. How many hundreds of thousands of jobs has this 'broken' economy created? We had the vacancies when Europeans were late out of the recession. Everyone won.

kabayiri wrote: »

You can not guarantee that these people will come, and are therefore reliant on factors outside your control.

Not much in life is guaranteed. People, oil, food - we can't guarantee any of these things will come. The market sets a price - can't pay it? Can't have it.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

If a country relies on year on year mass inward migration, in the order of hundreds of thousands, then I contend it is a *broken* economy.

You can not guarantee that these people will come, and are therefore reliant on factors outside your control.

Well, yes, it would have been easier if we'd bred enough of our own people to replace ourselves with for the last 50 years.

But we didn't...

ukcarper

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well, yes, it would have been easier if we'd bred enough of our own people to replace ourselves with for the last 50 years.

But we didn't...

Isn't that a very simplistic view UK productivity is much lower than other developed countries an increase in that would reduce the number of workers needed.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ukcarper wrote: »

Isn't that a very simplistic view UK productivity is much lower than other developed countries an increase in that would reduce the number of workers needed.

Only if output remained flat...

The last 7 paragraphs of this article are interesting though.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/24/why-is-uks-productivity-still-behind-that-of-other-major-economies

ukcarper

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Only if output remained flat...

The last 7 paragraphs of this article are interesting though.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/24/why-is-uks-productivity-still-behind-that-of-other-major-economies

Surly if productivity improved you would need fewer worker to get the same output, it's a balancing act and we should not be relying solely on importing cheap labour to bridge gap. As for a reduction in exports we will have to see the opposite seems to be the case now but of course we haven't left yet.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

To return to the thread topic - an Australian take on the German election and its effect upon the EU:

Merkel may well be the chief agent of Europe’s demise.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/greg-sheridan/europe-is-committing-suicide-and-merkel-is-its-death-knell/news-story/d0ae5de900b838af45a8eadaf038f8f3


Meanwhile Thai fishermen learn that dealing with the EU is costing them dearly:

While the attempts to cope with the EU's concerns over illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing (IUU) were well intended, some of the legal measures introduced had a disastrous impact on the fishing...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general/1328535/fishermen-rise-against-eu-demands-for-tighter-controls

A_Medium_Size_Jock

posh*spice wrote: »

Conrad watch the panarama prog about the rise of the right in germany :eek:

I have been saying that for a while & yet been "pooh-pooh"-ed by the usual suspects for even suggesting it.
NOT suggesting they will be in a position of any great power BTW, but that support is more widespread than many are willing to accept.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/german-election-2017-polls-odds-tracker-merkel-seeks-fourth/

Neighbouring Austria has long had more far-right support with their candidate being only fairly narrowly beaten in presidential elections in December last year.
With parliamentary elections in October, Austria's politicians have as a result taken tougher stances:

Austria’s Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz said on Monday benefits for migrants should be cut and capped, tapping into concerns about immigrants among voters ahead of an Oct. 15 general election he is favorite to win.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-election-migrants/front-runner-in-austrian-election-proposes-cuts-to-migrant-benefits-idUSKCN1BF1QE

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ukcarper wrote: »

Surly if productivity improved you would need fewer worker to get the same output, it's a balancing act and we should not be relying solely on importing cheap labour to bridge gap. As for a reduction in exports we will have to see the opposite seems to be the case now but of course we haven't left yet.

Indeed.
And continuing to import over a quarter of a million workers each and every year must therefore equate to quarter of a million new jobs per year for these workers to fill.
Where are these jobs coming from?
:whistle:


BTW, don't let Hamish's "but births..." argument detract; at around 700,000 births per year in England & Wales that has been above the number of deaths for years.
http://visual.ons.gov.uk/birthsanddeaths/

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/birthsummarytables

A_Medium_Size_Jock

The EU is prepared to bend the rules on Russia – when it’s in Germany’s interests

http://www.cityam.com/272412/eu-prepared-bend-rules-russia-its-germanys-interests

(Text removed by MSE Forum Team)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

The Spain vs Catalonia independence saga rolls on:

From new tax office, Catalonia hopes to grab billions from Madrid

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-politics-catalonia-tax/from-new-tax-office-catalonia-hopes-to-grab-billions-from-madrid-idUKKCN1BW0ZK?il=0