Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

ukcarper

gfplux wrote: »

This from Bloomberg Brexit email today.

"Bank of America strategists have been crunching the Brexit numbers and are warning the biggest risk for U.K. companies may be a decline in migration after March 2019.
They reckon if net migration fell by 1 million more over three years than currently forecast, there would need to be 400,000 fewer homes and that would have repercussions for the economy.
“Even in a mild environment we could have no house price inflation for a generation,” said analyst Andy Murphy."

That will be music to the ears of Brexiters as housing "might" become more affordable.

Don't understand figures net migration is about 250,000 a year so how can fall by 1 million over 3 years.

System

Conrad wrote: »

Naïve view. People like Rudd were passionate Remainers and deep down still are, agreeing a settled view is not going to possible unless the Remoaner din in the media quietens down

I wonder what Mrs May's username is on here because, despite the remoaner din, she seems to have taken my naive view on board and organised an unusual Thursday cabinet meeting.

Boris has been told he's travelling back from New York with miss on the same flight just in case he starts showing off and getting over excited again.

System

ukcarper wrote: »

Don't understand figures net migration is about 250,000 a year so how can fall by 1 million over 3 years.

It can go negative? There are about 2.5m EU workers in the UK.

Not sure how likely a possibility that would be.

ukcarper

ilovehouses wrote: »

It can go negative? There are about 2.5m EU workers in the UK.

Not sure how likely a possibility that would be.

Not very. .

posh*spice

ukcarper wrote: »

Don't understand figures net migration is about 250,000 a year so how can fall by 1 million over 3 years.

Net migration was 335,000 in 2016.

Zero_Gravitas

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

I'll accept criticism for derogatory terminology from you when you demonstrate to me that you are also pulling people up for using "remoaner" (clue: stator in post 124).

Or are terms only derogatory when they don't support your wold view? Now that's hypocrisy!

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I disagree with both as it happens, but "idiot" is IMHO far worse than "moan".
For example I admit that sometimes I moan; how about you?
:whistle:

Been away for a few days, and have come back to note that the medium-sized one has had a number of opportunities to take people to task for using the "remoaner" word both on this thread and on others to which he has contributed; and yet he has chosen not so to do.

So, not only attempting hypocrisy, but well and truly achieving it.

posh*spice

There are 3.6 million EU citizens in the UK not 2.5

System

posh*spice wrote: »

There are 3.6 million EU citizens in the UK not 2.5

Who said there were 2.5m EU citizens in the UK?

ukcarper

posh*spice wrote: »

Net migration was 335,000 in 2016.

Yes but it's down to 246,000 for the year to march 2017.

Thrugelmir

buglawton wrote: »

That would make direct trading by small companies to consumers across an EU-to-non-EU border totally unviable wouldn't it? And yet exactly that kind of trading goes on every day.

Short on detail.
Mmmm.

Isn't that inpart some of trade that some of the EU member states wish to tax? Which will result in increased prices for the consumer. Global corporates are the major players. Smaller companies aren't major exporters in the UK. Only 5% of UK companies even export.