Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

Which one in particular?

For power (eletricity) UK peak usage used to be close to 65GW now its closer to 50GW that means despite the uk population booming by 7-8 million on the decade we need 15GW fewer power stations to meet peak uk winter demands.

If you recall almost every year in the 2000s and even many of the 2010s there were news stories of how the uk was going to suffer blackouts. It didnt come to pass primarily becuase of old lights being replaced by CFLs/LEDs

As for overall electricity usage in the uk.

2006 was 397.3 TWh
2016 was 338.6 TWh

So while the uk population went up by 4.8 million during that period (and millions of homes and businesses were built) electricity usage went down 15%. That 60TWh annual usage fall on the decade is MASSIVE. By comparison the huge new dual reactor nuclear plant being built by EDF is not even going to produce half of that.

As for Nat Gas. UK consumption is down from over 90BCM to closer to 70BCM on the decade

Data available from BP statistical analysis for all countries

Yes found interesting site, largest fall was industrial use and that seems to be only sector still falling.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Good news:

Boost for Hammond as UK posts smallest August budget deficit in 10 years

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-budget/boost-for-hammond-as-uk-posts-smallest-august-budget-deficit-in-10-years-idUKKCN1BW11Q

GreatApe

Herzlos wrote: »

Exactly - useage of electronics is up, but power consumption is down hugely (like 100w bulbs that now draw 2w, improved white goods, TVs, laptops, etc), partially due to EU regulations.

Yes electrical efficiency was pushed by the EU and it has benefited the whole world

If PV panels and wind farms become economic that will be thanks to the EU kick-starting the tech and industry in the 2000s

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

Yes found interesting site, largest fall was industrial use and that seems to be only sector still falling.

In electricity there are two factors, peak demand (number of power stations needed) and annual energy consumption (amount of fuel needed)

Peak demand is down big time, despite millions more buildings and people. Its mostly thanks to CFLs/LED lights in homes/shops and to a lessor extend offices and industrial buildings (although offices and industrial buildings used CFLs and Sodium Lamps etc for a lot longer)

Energy usage is down primarily to more efficient computers appliances and lights.

Industrial usage is more complicated, for instance if you close down a nuke and replace it with a CCGT that lowers industrial usage because a CCGT plant uses a lot less electricity than a nuclear plant to run. Also general industrial improvements I used to work in the steel industry and they had a big energy drive in the late 2000s when fuel got expensive lots of very inefficient practices like leaving huge propane burners on 24/7 being replaced by electric ones on for a fraction of the time

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

Yes found interesting site, largest fall was industrial use and that seems to be only sector still falling.

Tech also makes other infrastructure much more efficient

For instance, if you want to double train capacity you could build a new train line
Or you could build some software to allow digital signalling and location tracking allowing more trains to run on the same tracks. While building railways is dam expensive the digital infrastructure is much much cheaper

This is how the uk could pretty much double rail travil without anywhere near to doubling the number or mileage of tracks. Even now if i am not mistaken most uk train lines operate on analog signalling so a lot of room to improve there. Although I reckon self drive cars will decimate most intercity train-lines within 1-2 decades

A_Medium_Size_Jock

GreatApe wrote: »

Yes electrical efficiency was pushed by the EU and it has benefited the whole world

If PV panels and wind farms become economic that will be thanks to the EU kick-starting the tech and industry in the 2000s

I'm not decrying the EU's input but it's a bit "rich" to suggest that energy efficiency is down to the EU since it is part of a global plan, fostered for example by the International Energy Agency which has 29 member countries as well as the efforts of the European Commission.
https://www.iea.org/

The same goes for solar power BTW:
https://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/solar-panels/the-history-of-solar-energy-and-solar-panels.html
The EU have not "kick-started the tech", they have added to its use which in turn lowers the price. Of course, subsidies help too: http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/free-solar-panels

Did you know that the first known wind turbine to produce electricity was Scottish?
Or that the first USA wind farm was in 1975?
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ugc/articles/2014/11/history-of-wind-turbines.html
Again, not decrying EU efforts but trying to make it look like they were first or somehow were solely responsible for the technology is a little disingenuous.

Finally, a major factor in much of this for consumers is cost.
If two products cost the same and do the same but one will cost you less to run ........
If you can save money on your bill or even earn money from solar panels ..............

Conrad

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Good news:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-budget/boost-for-hammond-as-uk-posts-smallest-august-budget-deficit-in-10-years-idUKKCN1BW11Q

But, but Remainers endlessly promised me we're doomed, the recession is almost upon us (take your pick), consumer confidence in a death spiral


Once again fact replaces forecast

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Why seek to discredit the author; why not instead debate the content?

The author discredits herself with her final conclusion which is nothing more than you'd expect from an anti foreigner propagandist.

If you wanted to have a sensible discussion about Germany's gas imports (you don't) you wouldn't start with an opinion piece from the ex UKIP leader.

If you wanted to highlight how someone thinks Germany bends EU rules to suits (you do) then the ex UKIP is the perfect person to help confirm your bias.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Much speculation from Auntie Beeb about today's ministerial meeting, with (surprise) Laura Kuenssberg as usual trying to make something out of nothing. As such there would appear to be little factual content.

Mrs May briefed her top team on what she will say at a marathon two and a half hour Cabinet meeting.

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Chancellor Philip Hammond - seen as being at opposing ends of cabinet views on Brexit - emerged from the meeting together in a show of unity for waiting reporters.

Ministers were given copies of the draft speech to read for 30 minutes before the meeting got under way.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41342580

Most of the rest would seem to be speculation, besides which much of that speculation has already been rebutted one way or another by the EU.

Like the supposed transitional deal, which Barmier has just today said will not even be discussed until after other issues have been settled.

"These questions, as far as I see it, should not be controversial because this is about protecting our citizens, our businesses, our partners, and the credibility of our promises... Once we have clarity on these points, we should also define the precise conditions for a possible transition period, if the British government requests one."

http://www.cityam.com/272468/barnier-just-one-year-left-strike-brexit-deal

Or the alleged 20 billion "divorce bill"; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/20/eu-diplomats-warn20bn-transition-payments-pledge-wont-break/
(Paywalled but you get the idea.)

We will see tomorrow.
I suspect however that Eurocrats will not be satisfied with the contents.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

The author discredits herself with her final conclusion which is nothing more than you'd expect from an anti foreigner propagandist.

If you wanted to have a sensible discussion about Germany's gas imports (you don't) you wouldn't start with an opinion piece from the ex UKIP leader.

If you wanted to highlight how someone thinks Germany bends EU rules to suits (you do) then the ex UKIP is the perfect person to help confirm your bias.

Ignore Reuters then if you must, but again can you debate the contents rather than the author?
:whistle:
(Post # 2103 may help you there.)