Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Arklight

Herzlos wrote: »

He's pointing out that the unemployment figures are dodgy at best, and don't actually give a good impression of employment. That they are now so long they expose that by not correlating with any signs of low actual employment.

In short - unemployment (from a UK statistics POV) is people that have no job, are looking, and haven't been shoehorned into a scheme. Someone on a 0-hour contract getting 0 hours is employed. Someone who's given up looking has "left the workforce" so not unemployed. Someone working part-time but looking for full-time is not unemployed. And so on.

To get a better idea of employment, you need to look at mobility and wage growth - if unemployment is genuinely so low, people will be changing jobs a lot more, and being offered more money.

I think people that tend to believe these figures are either wealthy and are just oblivious to real life for many, or don't know any young people.

It's fine sitting in a paid off house in the home counties drawing a nice pension and reading some bollards about how well off everyone is, but this really isn't the experience of many working people in the UK.

Housing is bitterly unaffordable, and trying to find an actual permanent job which pays enough not to need to claim working poverty benefits at the same time is a pipe dream.


For many people the only way they actually can claim enough benefits to live on is if they are in some part time poverty wages job, because the Social now makes it so hard to claim if you are genuinely unemployed.


It's virtual slave labour for employers, with wages topped up by the taxpayer and billions of pounds given to private landlords in housing benefit.

Fella

fatbeetle wrote: »

Why do you add a smile after a report of potential increasing unemployment?

You really must be one of those sick puppies who get off on other people's suffering.

It's pretty sad but some Remainers are desperately hoping Brexit is a disaster as they are far more bothered about being "proved correct" than they actually are about good or bad Brexit outcomes.

always_sunny

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

Have you a source for that as fact? It's a claim I've seen repeated ad nauseum by brexiters trying to shut down a discussion they don't like, but the author of art. 50. said it can unilaterally be withdrawn.

Various EU figures have also said we would be welcomed back if changed our minds, although I fully appreciate they'll want their pound of flesh in return, likely in the form of the rebate ending. (Price worth paying in my book). I also think there's political capital for the EU in allowing us to return, tail between our legs... it's a good thing for the EU to be able to hold up and say "the British tried it, it was a disaster and they've returned... anyone else getting any ideas?".

European Commission - Fact Sheet:
Once triggered, can Article 50 be revoked?
It is up to the United Kingdom to trigger Article 50. But once triggered, it cannot be unilaterally reversed. Notification is a point of no return. Article 50 does not provide for the unilateral withdrawal of notification.

fenny

wow, I never met anyone who admitted to wanting the NHS privatised, more benefit sanctions for disabled people and for pensioners to have their homes taken off them, plus supporting tax evasion, Irish terrorist supporters, warmongers and sellers of arms to despots before.

michaels

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40949242

Oh - it turns out if you reduce the supply of unskilled labour suddenly you can see wage growth. Very bad news for those in London who like cheap lattes and cleaners based on labour from the EU and hpi based on population expansion; better news for those at the bottom who might start to see the wage gap shrink and housing affordability improve.

Herzlos

Fella wrote: »

It's pretty sad but some Remainers are desperately hoping Brexit is a disaster as they are far more bothered about being "proved correct" than they actually are about good or bad Brexit outcomes.

The only reason I've seen from Remainers for wanting Brexit to be a disaster is so that we fix it faster. If Brexit is lukewarm, with a gradual decline, we'll probably just plod along hoping it'll magically get better. If it's a total disaster we're much more likely to accept it was a bad idea and then start trying to rejoin the EU again.

I mean, I'd rather that either it actually worked (but none of the evidence is filling me with confidence) or we decided to cancel it. But once we've done it I'd rather it went wrong sooner rather than later, and we corrected course.

always_sunny

michaels wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40949242

Oh - it turns out if you reduce the supply of unskilled labour suddenly you can see wage growth. Very bad news for those in London who like cheap lattes and cleaners based on labour from the EU and hpi based on population expansion; better news for those at the bottom who might start to see the wage gap shrink and housing affordability improve.

But there's no reduction in the supplied of unskilled labour yet and wage growth (at least current) is still below inflation so there goes your squeeze.

The very bad news is for those at the bottom indeed, if those in London who like cheap lattes and cleaners can't afford it anymore they just stop consuming putting a lot of folks in dire situation.

I don't know if you believe that all EU nationals here (with FoM) are unskilled cheap labour but it's not really correct, however it sounds like you believe that in the near future we will see more Brits washing cars, picking veggies, cleaning, etc. because that is really what they want to do.

House affordability is another matter, the slump in the pound is making it extremely cheap for foreigners to buy.

Rusty_Shackleton

michaels wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40949242

Oh - it turns out if you reduce the supply of unskilled labour suddenly you can see wage growth. Very bad news for those in London who like cheap lattes and cleaners based on labour from the EU and hpi based on population expansion; better news for those at the bottom who might start to see the wage gap shrink and housing affordability improve.

It's not as clear cut as that and you do (or should) know that.

If we were to go an extreme route and deport EU nationals when we leave, you would cause a massive shortage of labour in a very short period of time. Any shock like that is bad for the economy. While I wholeheartedly agree we should lift the poorest in society out of poverty pay and exploitative employment, doing so in a sudden way would destroy some businesses and have other knock on effects.

A more sensible approach would be to prevent exploitation of migrant labour through enforcement of current laws, preventing businesses going abroad to advertise for labour they could source here (even if that means paying more money) etc.

A destructive attitude to parts of the economy won't solve anything and will cause other problems.

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

There seems to be a fear that democracy will be undone if we have any democracy. It seems to a standard response for anyone who "wins" in the most tenuous way and is worried any re-run will result in "losing" or having their democracy not doing what they want it to do.



There's currently millions of voters with a strong sense of betrayal in the Remain camp, and whatever Brexit plays out at least some of the Leavers will feel the same sense of betrayal. If we get a hard brexit, those voting for a soft brexit will feel betrayed. If we get a soft brexit, those voting for a hard brexit will feel betrayed. If we don't give the NHS £350m/week then those voters will feel betrayed. If we keep some FoM, those voters who wanted to stop migration will feel betrayed.

Going by the numbers before; if we decide to remain, somewhere around 50*% will feel betrayed.
If we take any other option, assuming a fairly even split between hard/sort Brexit (which showed from the polls) then something closer to 75% will feel betrayed.

Why would you shoot your economy in the foot to upset 75% of the electorate, when you could keep your economy strong and stable by only upsetting 50*% of the electorage?

This whole mess is still down to games in the Tory party and trying to placate the anti-EU backbench.



*52% minus a few that have changed their minds or died of old age since June last year.

Yes, but betrayed by who?
After the referendum I have to say that I probably said on this or the earlier thread. "At least when Britain has left the EU they will stop blaming the EU for all Britains problems"
I now realise that the the present Government are playing the exit game so they can blame the obvious (to me) economic and political difficulty Britain will suffer for the next decade on "the revenge of the EU"

Arklight

Fella wrote: »

It's pretty sad but some Remainers are desperately hoping Brexit is a disaster as they are far more bothered about being "proved correct" than they actually are about good or bad Brexit outcomes.

Brexit will be a disaster regarless of what Remainers want to happen because it is the most momentously stupid thing the UK has ever volunteered itself for.


Watching the stupid smirks wiped off the faces of Brexiteers, many of whom will number among the worst affected by their stupid decision, is about the only silver lining we have and we intend to enjoy it.