Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Nor is Brexit going to power ahead the UK economy ahead unfortunately. There's something that's down to the people who live and work here.

These people who live and work here are the very same people who were complaining about the economy before.

As I said, what will be it is to be seen, neither you or anyone else is in a position to provide a future vision with certainty, you can definitely stay positive but that alone will not put food on anyone's table.

I am not complaining, my industry is actually benefiting greatly, as you know well someone’s misfortune is someone else’s opportunity.

Tromking

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

If you want to make the most people happy, a large number of people voted remain, and many more will be happy with whatever protects their jobs

That'll be the gamble if Brexit is fudged I guess.
Even if you are right there will still be millions of voters with a strong sense of betrayal. For the record, for such a major change in the UK's direction I personally don't think enough people voted for Brexit for it to work. As long as remain voters are cognisant of the possible decades long political sh*tstorm that could occur if their view on Brexit prevails then I'm happy.

always_sunny

mrginge wrote: »

Gideon told us we'd all be massively poorer despite the fact that he also continued to forecast economic growth.

So in your opinion, how tough is really tough?

And you are.
Before Brexit someone earning £26k was the equivalent of EUR34k and now is EUR28k.
You could say, who cares, I don't go to Europe and get plastered in Magaluf (neither do I) but unless you're the most selective person on the country, you buy foreign goods so you will feel it in your pockets.

How tough is really tough depends on the individual.
Some folks might be happy to live with no heating and say everything is fine and some others are not. What is tough for you?

Herzlos

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Can I just ask why Leavers are so adamant there will be no referendum on the final deal? I feel that it is only fair that the British people have the right to decide to remain in the EU if the deal negotiated by May and Co isn't acceptable to them. This is democracy.

What are you so scared of? Not winning again?

There seems to be a fear that democracy will be undone if we have any democracy. It seems to a standard response for anyone who "wins" in the most tenuous way and is worried any re-run will result in "losing" or having their democracy not doing what they want it to do.

Tromking wrote: »

Even if you are right there will still be millions of voters with a strong sense of betrayal.

There's currently millions of voters with a strong sense of betrayal in the Remain camp, and whatever Brexit plays out at least some of the Leavers will feel the same sense of betrayal. If we get a hard brexit, those voting for a soft brexit will feel betrayed. If we get a soft brexit, those voting for a hard brexit will feel betrayed. If we don't give the NHS £350m/week then those voters will feel betrayed. If we keep some FoM, those voters who wanted to stop migration will feel betrayed.

Going by the numbers before; if we decide to remain, somewhere around 50*% will feel betrayed.
If we take any other option, assuming a fairly even split between hard/sort Brexit (which showed from the polls) then something closer to 75% will feel betrayed.

Why would you shoot your economy in the foot to upset 75% of the electorate, when you could keep your economy strong and stable by only upsetting 50*% of the electorage?

This whole mess is still down to games in the Tory party and trying to placate the anti-EU backbench.



*52% minus a few that have changed their minds or died of old age since June last year.

Rusty_Shackleton

Tromking wrote: »

That'll be the gamble if Brexit is fudged I guess.
Even if you are right there will still be millions of voters with a strong sense of betrayal. For the record, for such a major change in the UK's direction I personally don't think enough people voted for Brexit for it to work. As long as remain voters are cognisant of the possible decades long political sh*tstorm that could occur if their view on Brexit prevails then I'm happy.

The only certainty is decades of a political sh*tstorm no matter what we do. I prefer betraying the brexiters because their ideas are half baked, an awful lot of them will be dead sooner rather than later, and there should never have been a vote where an option was against something rather than for an opposing idea. The question on the referendum was like if a general election was reduced to the choice of 'Conservative' or 'Not Conservative'. How happy would everyone be if Labour won by that question?!

Brexiters are so against a referendum on the outcome of negotiations because they know as soon as the electorate is given the option of remain in the EU or a specific destination outside of it, that specific destination will fracture the leavers into the diverse groups they actually are - what we have now is tyranny of the minorities.

What do you think will happen when diverse and rabid groups with competing interests, high on their 'win' over the establishment, realise other groups in their coalition have got more of what they wanted than others? Actually I've just found a silver lining to all of this... they'll attack each other.

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

So in your opinion, how tough is really tough?

As tough as the last recession (which we still haven't entirely shaken off); it'll drive a huge amount of the JAM population from "managing" to "not managing" with all of the various repercussions due to spending falling off a cliff.

I'm confident I'll be alright, though I plan for a fair bit of belt tightening.

cogito

Oh dear. Haven't we already discussed to death the question of why people voted for Brexit?

We're leaving and that's it.

Some people think that leaving is going to be a disaster. Many think that it will be a great opportunity for the UK outside the sclerotic, undemocratic, protectionist club that is the EU.

mayonnaise

Herzlos wrote: »

There seems to be a fear that democracy will be undone if we have any democracy. It seems to a standard response for anyone who "wins" in the most tenuous way and is worried any re-run will result in "losing" or having their democracy not doing what they want it to do.

“If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy”

David Davis, 2012.

http://www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-mp-delivers-speech-on-the-opportunities-for-a-referendum-on-europe/

Seabee42

Brexit could be an opportunity (not sure it will be, we are mainly a consumer nation), which at the same point should not make brexit a disaster either. It is not like we have ever done well out of the EU and politically never seemed to be driving anything there.


I cannot see the point of voting after the deal is on offer that just says to the EU if we give them a crap deal they will not vote to leave. That seems like an own goal.


As for recession, well however anaemic the growth has been it has already been a long growth cycle and a recession is due it may not be over due yet but heh!

StevieJ

;

always_sunny wrote: »

And you are.
Before Brexit someone earning £26k was the equivalent of EUR34k and now is EUR28k.
You could say, who cares, I don't go to Europe and get plastered in Magaluf (neither do I) but unless you're the most selective person on the country, you buy foreign goods so you will feel it in your pockets.

How tough is really tough depends on the individual.
Some folks might be happy to live with no heating and say everything is fine and some others are not. What is tough for you?

I am a remainer but so far I have done ok out of Brexit, portfolio up 20-30%, inflation only 2-3% . Should be enough to cover the extra cost of foreign holidays. It is those poor misled suckers in places like Sunderland that I feel sorry for :-(