Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

Rather catches the reality of the situation.

A polite riposte to Mr Juncker perhaps.

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't think I've ever seen anyone say a no (Remain) vote would result in a decline.

A yes (Leave) vote was meant to take us from strength to strength, free of the shackles of that pesky parasitic EU.

I agree though, we won't see any actual growth (be it +ve or -ve) until we actually leave. But I'm seeing almost no potential growth on the horizon. A few posts about businesses investing in London, but nothing about where all this mythical growth is going to come from.

I pushed for a few pages on what benefits we're expecting to get from the US trade deal, and I've asked a few times about the benefits of Brexit and got nothing, so I gave up. There seems to be nothing to say about what a future Brexit will exceed at.

So we're doing to 43 groups of posts:
* Any shred of evidence that people have confidence in London
* Any threat of things being worse after Brexit
* Lots of asking about what's going on.
* Lots of EU bashing.

We've got a unique opportunity to reinvent stuff and lead the world in something for a change, but there's absolutely no appetite to discuss what that is. Where's the vast improvements to green energy? The vast infrastructure improvements? The new research? New university projects? Anything that's not just "more of the same"?

The only concrete thing that we can point to is the devaluation of the pound after the Brexit vote.
We have now had that devaluation (getting on for 20%) helping exports by making them cheaper and hindering imports by making them more expensive for 14 months.
Do we have any evidence that Exports are increasing? Britain is still held back by its membership of the EU (or so we are told) but what exporter would not be jumping for joy if their products became cheaper giving them a huge competitive advantage.

If Britains exporters can not take advantage of this I doubt they will triumph when all the new trade deals are signed with Country's thousands and thousands of mile away.

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

Oh that's hilarious:rotfl:

In case anyone hasn't heard the other news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40922169

The joke making the rounds

"Britain thinks it can negotiate withdrawal from the EU in 18 months but it take them four years to fix a clock."

mayonnaise

gfplux wrote: »

Do we have any evidence that Exports are increasing?

Erm......nope.

A fall in export volumes and climbing imports pushed up Britain’s trade balance with the rest of the world in June, in another sign of the still elusive rebalancing within the UK economy a year after the Brexit vote. Figures from the Office for National Statistics show the UK’s trade deficit in goods and services climbed by £2bn between May and June to £4.56bn – the widest since September 2016. The rise was driven by a 4.9 per cent slump in goods export volumes in the month – the worst performance since the Brexit vote last year

https://www.ft.com/content/406f2a9d-6da6-3b19-b26e-1de82d86f66e

buglawton

mayonnaise wrote: »

Erm......nope.

https://www.ft.com/content/406f2a9d-6da6-3b19-b26e-1de82d86f66e

Bremoaners please look away now as the following image is liable to offend.

The export situation is entirely respectable. It's stopped accelerating but that last drop-back is hardly worth seizing upon as proof positive that the entire idea of Brexit is a disaster as some would have the gullible believe.

Not only that, but the £ should stay around it's current value. We need to earn our way out, not expect benifcience from heaven.

If anything starts to cause the £ to revalue, I am sure that the disaster-touting journos will be along to correct the situation.



Source:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports, last updated Aug 2017.

always_sunny

buglawton wrote: »

Not only that, but the £ should stay around it's current value. We need to earn our way out, not expect benifcience from heaven.

If anything starts to cause the £ to revalue, I am sure that the disaster-touting journos will be along to correct the situation.

There's a possibility that the pound may drop even further and be at parity of below EUR.
It depends what markets the UK is eyeing - a weak pound against the EUR may mean no much if the target export market is USD or AUD.

The problem with needing to earn your way out is that it needs cohesion from the population to be willing to endure 'difficult times' ahead and adapt to new lower quality of life; it's always easier to upgrade than downgrade.

i.e. those JAM families to be told that it's going to get tougher for the next 5/10 years won't be uberly ecstatic.

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

...
That's before the irony of trying to negotiate a fee to stay in the customs union i.e. negotiating to stay in something we're already part of and pay a fee for. What a visionary.

I'm afraid we have to trust them to do the job they have been paid to do.

If we don't like the results we can at least vote them out.

Rusty_Shackleton

buglawton wrote: »

Bremoaners please look away now as the following image is liable to offend.

The export situation is entirely respectable. It's stopped accelerating but that last drop-back is hardly worth seizing upon as proof positive that the entire idea of Brexit is a disaster as some would have the gullible believe.

Not only that, but the £ should stay around it's current value. We need to earn our way out, not expect benifcience from heaven.

If anything starts to cause the £ to revalue, I am sure that the disaster-touting journos will be along to correct the situation.



Source:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports, last updated Aug 2017.

The problem with talking about the UKs exports is that our economy, in terms of exported goods, is largely assembly and late stage manufacturing - there's little resource extraction or heavy industry. This means that while our exports are cheaper, many of the things we use to make the goods go up in price at the same time, as many are imported (due to no domestic alternative, would be different if by choice due to price).

With regards to your graph, there is a lag between when a manufacturer agrees prices with suppliers and when those goods are delivered. Products being exported now will have largely been made with material and parts where the price was agreed at a time when Sterling was stronger. As these contracts expire and prices are renegotiated, the parts will increase in cost, the finished price will increase, and exports will decrease. I should know, I'm a buyer for a high tech manufacturer that exports most of it's output - fortunately for us, we have very comfortable profit margins and will be able to maintain sales by taking the hit if needed... many manufacturers don't have that luxury!

Of course, how this actually plays out will vary - suppliers and manufacturers will try to absorb price increases (or at least smooth them out) to avoid buyers jumping to a competitor. But overall, to consider the increase in exports since last year in isolation would be a big mistake.

gfplux

Here is the first of (many we are promised)
The Temporary customs arrangements.
All 16 glorious pages, a bit too complicated to understand on the beach.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/637748/Future_customs_arrangements_-_a_future_partnership_paper.pdf

Looking forward to the early responses from the EU side, if any.

Arklight

Little Englanders on course for a spanking from Brussels:


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-trade-deals-leave-eu-customs-union-european-union-brussels-uk-government-a7893756.html

David Davis has put Britain on a collision course with Brussels by insisting on the right to sign other trade deals from day one after Brexit – while remaining in a customs union.
The Brexit Secretary insisted the Government would “negotiate and sign” agreements once EU withdrawal is completed, whatever the nature of any transitional period after 2019.
Earlier, a former EU trade commissioner warned Brussels was likely to block Britain’s customs proposal on those terms, describing it as “very problematic”.