Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

Maybe, the difficult bit might be convincing the population that things will be tough for a while, as in really tough.

Remember the financial crisis was less than 10 years ago, so after that decade, Brexi pops it again. It's a long time to endure, but at least there is pretty much the same sovereignty that was there before. Brexit will power ahead, whether it'll achieve anything it can only be seen.

We aren't clear of the last financial crisis yet. The BOE is still continuing providing support to mortgage lending until February of next year. RBS is still some 70% taxpayer owned. The list goes on. There's a whole generation that have zero experience of a real recession. Then you'll know what tough is.

Nor is Brexit going to power ahead the UK economy ahead unfortunately. There's something that's down to the people who live and work here.

CKhalvashi

Rinoa wrote: »

If they hadn't acknowledged EU trade you'd probably have suggested they had no grasp of reality.

No reason to mention Gibralter, but if they had made clear their determination to keep it British you'd have made a scathing attack on their 'Little Englander' mentality re-living a colonial past.

Easy to see why you're called remoaners.

The Customs Union plan has no grasp of reality at all. You know we cannot speak about trade deals while still inside the customs union with the furthest reaching trade tentacles in the world.

Also, unfairly leaving a region of Britain off the map is a deliberate attempt to mislead the public about the true situation. This is unacceptable to the people of Gibraltar, unfair to the people of the UK and unfair to the people of Spain. The situation needs to be clarified as soon as possibly to ensure that certain British citizens are not harmed by the plans more than others.

The only way not to harm the citizens of the UK is to remain in the European Union.

Can I just ask why Leavers are so adamant there will be no referendum on the final deal? I feel that it is only fair that the British people have the right to decide to remain in the EU if the deal negotiated by May and Co isn't acceptable to them. This is democracy.

What are you so scared of? Not winning again?

Tromking

CKhalvashi wrote: »

The only way not to harm the citizens of the UK is to remain in the European Union.

Can I just ask why Leavers are so adamant there will be no referendum on the final deal? I feel that it is only fair that the British people have the right to decide to remain in the EU if the deal negotiated by May and Co isn't acceptable to them. This is democracy.

What are you so scared of? Not winning again?

It's been won.
If Brexit is somehow fudged in the years ahead, I do genuinely fear for our democracy. Remainers in their haste to ignore the Brexit vote and re-impose their world view on the majority of us that voted out, are IMO playing with fire.The politicians at least know the ramifications of ignoring or messsing with the Brexit vote, hence
despite the rhetoric a fairly easy path so far through Parliament.
I think the UK is engaged in a tactic at the moment of suggesting 'positions' on trade that would possibly appeal to EU national governments but nevertheless are quickly shot down by the usual suspects in Brussels. Dublin for example will have to decide eventually if Verhofstadt and the rest have the best interests of Ireland at heart when seemingly sensible UK suggestions on trade are dismissed as fanciful within minutes.

mayonnaise

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Can I just ask why Leavers are so adamant there will be no referendum on the final deal? I feel that it is only fair that the British people have the right to decide to remain in the EU if the deal negotiated by May and Co isn't acceptable to them. This is democracy.

What are you so scared of? Not winning again?

No, please not another referendum.

As Tromking says, it's been won.
The way back in will be via Article 49, after brexit brings the UK to its knees.

cogito

Tromking wrote: »

Dublin for example will have to decide eventually if Verhofstadt and the rest have the best interests of Ireland at heart when seemingly sensible UK suggestions on trade are dismissed as fanciful within minutes.

The Ireland border sutuation is very interesting. The UK doesn't want a physical border. The EU seems to think that a hard border is unavoidable.

So after Brexit, the UK keep the border open, the EU erects a physical border and imposes checks. How will that play worldwide?

mayonnaise

cogito wrote: »

The Ireland border sutuation is very interesting. The UK doesn't want a physical border. The EU seems to think that a hard border is unavoidable.

So after Brexit, the UK keep the border open, the EU erects a physical border and imposes checks. How will that play worldwide?

Why would the EU want to erect a physical border?

cogito

mayonnaise wrote: »

Why would the EU want to erect a physical border?

Presumably it depends what deal is done and I don't have much confidence in the EU's willingness to show flexibility as they respond negatively to any suggestion that requires some sort of compromise on their part.

Rusty_Shackleton

It's been won.
If Brexit is somehow fudged in the years ahead, I do genuinely fear for our democracy. Remainers in their haste to ignore the Brexit vote and re-impose their world view on the majority of us that voted out, are IMO playing with fire.The politicians at least know the ramifications of ignoring or messsing with the Brexit vote,

Ignoring the division of the country at the moment, and ignoring the anger of the brexiters that persists (despite having 'won')... I don't think we have anything to lose by remaining:

Brexiters only agree consistently on one thing: that they voted leave. They don't agree on what that means and have no consistent vision for what comes next. Some want to stay in the SM and CU, others wanr freedom of movement, some won't be happy without an end to all immigration. Leave won because it was a panacea, representing a fix to whatever the individual voters problems were - IMO thats why the most reliable indicator of the vote was education, I would guess the same is true with susceptibility to any scam.

Do not underestimate just how unhappy a vast number of these people will be with their 'win' no matter what happens. If you want to make the most people happy, a large number of people voted remain, and many more will be happy with whatever protects their jobs.

There is going to be lasting anger and damage no matter the outcome, might as well protect the economy as much as possible.

Tromking

mayonnaise wrote: »

Why would the EU want to erect a physical border?

The EU of course would argue they've been forced into it by the Brexit vote, but when the EU says it wants "creative solutions" to a hard border between Ulster and Ireland, thats code for the status quo ain't happening.
Brexit and the EU's reaction to it, is forcing Ireland out of the UK internal market. Dublin can't have it both ways, Brussels won't let them.

buglawton

The risk of the inter-Irish border being used to smuggle has been highlighted in the media. The reason being there'd be profitable price differences between EU and non-EU parts. This does rather reveal how protectionist EU keeps prices high, eh?