Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

mayonnaise

Those unemployment figures are about to go negative any time now.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7

Rusty_Shackleton

Seabee42 wrote: »

I do not care whether we have any international power or sway as such quite frankly given our current crop of MPs talent on all sides seems lacking. Any we got for being in the EU was always shared so its a bit moot whether that made any difference. As for voting in UKIP that was really only at the end of our EU dream wasn't it?

Free movement of people has certainly made some people very rich and has allowed employer's to not have to train people (including the NHS) these issues are never just a straight win loose. I actually think that's part of the EU problem some have and do gain but clearly not all and the benefits of membership are mixed. I also think increasing the population with automation threatening many jobs seems very short sighted.

It is clear we will loose something's and maybe there is the opportunity to gain some things but either way we seem to have the same buffoons as MPs so I do not expect much.

I completely agree about poaching nurses and doctors from other countries, but this issue and many other (valid) criticisms that are leveraged against the EU are due to UK policy and could be changed without trashing the good things we get from EU membership.

This and your very valid comment about the lack of competence in our own politicians is exactly why I prefer to be in the EU - they (including some British MEPs and other reps) are far more competent than those in Westminster and Whitehall, this country was a joke before the vote, and we're quickly accelerating the process into outright farce. Aren't you worried that brexiters' votes have handed unprecedented power to people you shouldn't trust with anything, let alone the future of the country?

always_sunny

Tromking wrote: »

I was given to understand that any referendum on the negotiations will not include a fallback position of remaining in the EU.

That's correct, the UK is not in a position to unanimously to make that decision.
27 EU member states would need to agree so realistically now there is no fallback.

Rusty_Shackleton

Tromking wrote: »

I was given to understand that any referendum on the negotiations will not include a fallback position of remaining in the EU. Its agree with the result of the negotiations or its crash out time I thought.
On the two possible "sh*tstorms", one has political legitimacy and the other doesn't of course.

True, I was putting forward a hypothetical. Although when things get bad enough and particularly once more politicians lose their jobs, putting remain back on the table might not look like such a bad option. Politics has been nothing if not unpredictable of late.

Carl31 wrote: »

http://https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/16/uk-pay-growth-unemployment-earnings-inflation

Unemployment down, wages up, inflation steady at 2.6%

i bet it pained the Guardian to print that news

The Guardian report news that doesn't follow their opinion pieces' lines, and at any rate, wages up 2.1% with inflation at 2.6% is a real-terms pay cut. Not exactly cause for celebration. As for unemployment... yeah, sure, take a look a the link mayonnaise posted. The figures are BS and have been for quite some time.

fatbeetle wrote: »

Why do you add a smile after a report of potential increasing unemployment?

You really must be one of those sick puppies who get off on other people's suffering.

I think it's pretty clear that mayonnaise was saying the unemployment figure will be minus soon, i.e. the current, gerrymandered, way of reporting unemployment will, for example, end up with a rate of minus 1% unemployed., which is clearly absurd. The smile is about the gerrymandering being exposed.

Rusty_Shackleton

always_sunny wrote: »

That's correct, the UK is not in a position to unanimously to make that decision.
27 EU member states would need to agree so realistically now there is no fallback.

Have you a source for that as fact? It's a claim I've seen repeated ad nauseum by brexiters trying to shut down a discussion they don't like, but the author of art. 50. said it can unilaterally be withdrawn.

Various EU figures have also said we would be welcomed back if changed our minds, although I fully appreciate they'll want their pound of flesh in return, likely in the form of the rebate ending. (Price worth paying in my book). I also think there's political capital for the EU in allowing us to return, tail between our legs... it's a good thing for the EU to be able to hold up and say "the British tried it, it was a disaster and they've returned... anyone else getting any ideas?".

Mortgagefreeman

fatbeetle wrote: »

Why do you add a smile after a report of potential increasing unemployment?

You really must be one of those sick puppies who get off on other people's suffering.

That's what happens when you overdo the Pot Noddles whilst watching Jeremy Kyle.

Herzlos

fatbeetle wrote: »

Why do you add a smile after a report of potential increasing unemployment?

You really must be one of those sick puppies who get off on other people's suffering.

He's pointing out that the unemployment figures are dodgy at best, and don't actually give a good impression of employment. That they are now so long they expose that by not correlating with any signs of low actual employment.

In short - unemployment (from a UK statistics POV) is people that have no job, are looking, and haven't been shoehorned into a scheme. Someone on a 0-hour contract getting 0 hours is employed. Someone who's given up looking has "left the workforce" so not unemployed. Someone working part-time but looking for full-time is not unemployed. And so on.

To get a better idea of employment, you need to look at mobility and wage growth - if unemployment is genuinely so low, people will be changing jobs a lot more, and being offered more money.

Arklight

fatbeetle wrote: »

Why do you add a smile after a report of potential increasing unemployment?

You really must be one of those sick puppies who get off on other people's suffering.

He was pointing out the government's official figures bear little relation to many people's real world experience of work, pay, and employment.

kabayiri

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

I completely agree about poaching nurses and doctors from other countries, but this issue and many other (valid) criticisms that are leveraged against the EU are due to UK policy and could be changed without trashing the good things we get from EU membership.
...

Nurses are a valuable part of the Fillipino economy. They produce something like 40% more than they require for their own internal needs.

I don't see anything wrong in a world where different countries produce different exportable skills.

GreatApe

Herzlos wrote: »

He's pointing out that the unemployment figures are dodgy at best, and don't actually give a good impression of employment. That they are now so long they expose that by not correlating with any signs of low actual employment.

In short - unemployment (from a UK statistics POV) is people that have no job, are looking, and haven't been shoehorned into a scheme. Someone on a 0-hour contract getting 0 hours is employed. Someone who's given up looking has "left the workforce" so not unemployed. Someone working part-time but looking for full-time is not unemployed. And so on.

To get a better idea of employment, you need to look at mobility and wage growth - if unemployment is genuinely so low, people will be changing jobs a lot more, and being offered more money.

If you do not trust the unemployed figure why not look at the employed figure?

It is now 75.1% which is higher than it has ever been in the history of the uk

You could argue that show 24.9% unemployed, but that would be stupid as it would include people who do not want or can not work like mothers looking after babies or rich people who retire before the retirement age etc

Personally I think it is quite clear the employment picture in the uk is very good. Of course we are a country of 65 million people so you can find thousands of people in !!!! circumstances but that is true always