Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Arklight

Basically we are crashing out of EU with no trade deal in place and visa restricted travel to all EU countries.


Unless the EU do us a massive favour, our government has neither the inclination nor the wherwithal to negotiate anything else.


This is obvious now. It's a flipping nightmare but at least we can start planning for it.

StevieJ

Seabee42 wrote: »

Brexit could be an opportunity (not sure it will be, we are mainly a consumer nation), which at the same point should not make brexit a disaster either. It is not like we have ever done well out of the EU and politically never seemed to be driving anything there.


I cannot see the point of voting after the deal is on offer that just says to the EU if we give them a crap deal they will not vote to leave. That seems like an own goal.


As for recession, well however anaemic the growth has been it has already been a long growth cycle and a recession is due it may not be over due yet but heh!

Obviously the Govt can't show their hand in negotiations. I am confident, however that once the talks are complete it will be put to the country. A sort of Cover My !!!! 2nd referendum :-)

Fella

Meanwhile:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/britain-to-enter-recession-with-500000-uk-jobs-lost-if-it-left-eu-new-treasury-analysis-shows

Britain’s economy would be tipped into a year-long recession, with at least 500,000 jobs lost and GDP around 3.6% lower, following a vote to leave the EU, new Treasury analysis launched today by the Prime Minister and Chancellor shows.

And yet:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40947087

Unemployment in the UK fell by 57,000 in the three months to June, official figures show, bringing the jobless rate down from 4.5% to 4.4% - its lowest since 1975.

And 157,000 lower than a year ago.

Arklight

Fella wrote: »

Meanwhile:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/britain-to-enter-recession-with-500000-uk-jobs-lost-if-it-left-eu-new-treasury-analysis-shows

Britain’s economy would be tipped into a year-long recession, with at least 500,000 jobs lost and GDP around 3.6% lower, following a vote to leave the EU, new Treasury analysis launched today by the Prime Minister and Chancellor shows.

And yet:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40947087

Unemployment in the UK fell by 57,000 in the three months to June, official figures show, bringing the jobless rate down from 4.5% to 4.4% - its lowest since 1975.

And 157,000 lower than a year ago.

And tractor production is up 48%...

Rusty_Shackleton

Seabee42 wrote: »

It is not like we have ever done well out of the EU and politically never seemed to be driving anything there.

We were the poor man of Europe before we joined. The single market has reduced the cost and bureaucracy of imports and exports, incredibly important for modern supply chains. The EU has driven standardisation and reduced protectionism, both benefiting British businesses. It's made flights and holidays cheaper and easier. It's reduced operating costs to individual states by combining key functions - for example what's the point in having our own UK medicines regulator when we can work together with our neighbours on a pan-European regulator, pay a fraction of the cost, access more world class expertise and so on (apply this to the dozens of regulatory agencies that are EU wide). Brexit is a drive for inefficiency. Most of all, by giving our neighbours a say on our decisions, we gained a say in theirs. That's not a loss of sovereignty, that's gaining influence by working cooperatively - Compromise is how you achieve things in the real world, surely you don't believe we can get what we want on every issue, to hell with what others want?

As part of the EU we're also more powerful on the international stage, we are not a superpower anymore. We're a relatively small country with high GDP but average (for first world) GDP per capita... Hell, India and Australia are already signalling about their demands of the UK for any sort of trade deal. Do you think those countries issue demands when negotiating for access to the largest market on the planet?! We're about to be shown up internationally in a way not seen since Suez.

The problem is that people don't recognise the benefits the EU brings because it's largely invisible, because it's the status quo - most people have no idea what the necessary alternatives will look like and cost, and it's likely to be a lot less desirable than the status quo. Yes, we might save some money from not paying membership, but that's meaningless if more than that is spent on replacing functions currently performed by the EU.

As for not politically driving anything in the EU? Perhaps part of the problem was people voting in UKIP tos**rs who didn't bother turning up, let alone debating. It's all very well not wanting to be part of the EU, but UKIP MEPs abdicated their duty to represent the interests of the people that elected them. You can't act surprised when lack of participation hurts your chances of getting the outcomes you want. Even so, the UK secured numerous opt outs and rebates, gaining a very favourable position compared to other members.

Seabee42

Well its funny that we are a poor manufacturer (90% of manufactured goods are free trade in the EU) supposedly we are good at services (city etc) and yet only 50% of services are free trade in the EU and it has been blocked by Germany and Italy both.













So cheap trade just means others can sell more here great!

Rusty_Shackleton

Seabee42 wrote: »

Well its funny that we are a poor manufacturer (90% of manufactured goods are free trade in the EU) supposedly we are good at services (city etc) and yet only 50% of services are free trade in the EU and it has been blocked by Germany and Italy both.

So cheap trade just means others can sell more here great!

We are good at some manufacturing, overall our biggest problem is crap productivity. Which, guess what, won't be addressed by leaving the EU! If anything, putting off hard working EU labour might worsen then situation.

It is certainly good for consumers though.

You ignored my other points, presumably you agree that there have been substantial benefits and we have had influence then?

Seabee42

I do not care whether we have any international power or sway as such quite frankly given our current crop of MPs talent on all sides seems lacking. Any we got for being in the EU was always shared so its a bit moot whether that made any difference. As for voting in UKIP that was really only at the end of our EU dream wasn't it?


Free movement of people has certainly made some people very rich and has allowed employer's to not have to train people (including the NHS) these issues are never just a straight win loose. I actually think that's part of the EU problem some have and do gain but clearly not all and the benefits of membership are mixed. I also think increasing the population with automation threatening many jobs seems very short sighted.


It is clear we will loose something's and maybe there is the opportunity to gain some things but either way we seem to have the same buffoons as MPs so I do not expect much.

Tromking

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

The only certainty is decades of a political sh*tstorm no matter what we do. I prefer betraying the brexiters because their ideas are half baked, an awful lot of them will be dead sooner rather than later, and there should never have been a vote where an option was against something rather than for an opposing idea. The question on the referendum was like if a general election was reduced to the choice of 'Conservative' or 'Not Conservative'. How happy would everyone be if Labour won by that question?!

Brexiters are so against a referendum on the outcome of negotiations because they know as soon as the electorate is given the option of remain in the EU or a specific destination outside of it, that specific destination will fracture the leavers into the diverse groups they actually are - what we have now is tyranny of the minorities.

I was given to understand that any referendum on the negotiations will not include a fallback position of remaining in the EU. Its agree with the result of the negotiations or its crash out time I thought.
On the two possible "sh*tstorms", one has political legitimacy and the other doesn't of course.

Carl31

http://https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/16/uk-pay-growth-unemployment-earnings-inflation

Unemployment down, wages up, inflation steady at 2.6%

i bet it pained the Guardian to print that news