Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

An "in a nutshell" summary from Rees-Mogg:

“The difficulty is not that we don’t have a position, the difficulty is that the EU has failed to prove that we owe them any money at all.
“And under EU and international law, if we leave without a deal we owe them nothing, and that means that the EU needs a deal more than we do.

https://rtl77.com/2017/07/27/barniers-bluffing-rees-mogg-savages-eu-boss-over-bid-to-stall-brexit/

This is also being reported elsewhere.

setmefree2

Yawn.

Brussels can BLOCK Britain's trade deal with USA: EU trade minister in staggering threat

A FORMER European Union trade commissioner has warned Britain the bloc can thwart any potential trade deal with Donald Trump’s United States if a transitional Brexit is agreed

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/833600/Brexit-news-European-Union-can-block-US-UK-trade-deal-Karel-De-Gucht-video

setmefree2

Trade the immoral Customs Union for fruitful deals that benefit the developing world

It has been another good week for those people who are trying to make the best out of Brexit, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum.
There shall, of course, always be bad news stories that Brexit will be blamed for – just like back in the eighties when Thatcher used to be blamed for everything from mouldy British Rail sandwiches to Britain’s inclement weather.
The truth will out, however, and when we look back we will see how today’s feint hearts or mendacious minds either threw in the towel or worked against the nation’s best commercial interests.

Why has Labour become such a strong advocate of leaving the Customs Union?
First, both millennial liberal progressives and out-and-out lefties are at last awakening to the fact that the Customs Union exports poverty to Africa and the rest of the developing world. It does this by erecting punitive tariff barriers that discourage trade and ensure penury for agricultural workers, from South Africa to Morocco.

The EU has increased its number of Customs Union tariffs by 1,494, to 12,691 since 2009, and last year raised its tariff on importing oranges fivefold from 3.2 per cent to 16 per cent – specifically to protect Spanish fruit by pricing out of the market South African oranges, first taken to the Cape by the Dutch back in 1654.
Likewise, the EU’s tariffs on importing raw products such as coffee beans are kept intentionally low so that they can easily enter our market, but tariffs on roasted coffee are set punitively higher so that the added value is achieved in the EU. This is how Germany makes more money from coffee processing than the whole of Africa makes from exporting its beans.
Beyond this growing Western guilt for how we suppress life-supporting trade with the poorest countries, the Labour party has also recognised that the only way we can create “a Brexit for jobs” is to establish free trade deals. This is what Liam Fox and Boris Johnson are so busy working on, sweet-talking with 37 countries to put us to the front of their trade negotiation queues. Those deals would be illegal under Customs Union arrangements, as we need the flexibility to reduce or abolish our tariffs.

High spirits

Take the sale of whisky and other spirits. They are not especially labour intensive – but the packaging, marketing and distribution is. India is the largest market in the world for whisky, drinking almost half of the world’s consumption, a staggering 1.5bn litres compared to second placed US with 462m litres. Yet our Scotch has only a two per cent share of Indian volume.
A target for a UK-Indian trade deal will be to reduce or abolish the eye-watering 150 per cent Indian import tariff on whisky, probably in return for easing access for Indian doctors and engineers to come to Britain. Surely a win-win for the UK?
Not only will mothballed distilleries be brought back to life – the spin-off employment and accompanying tax revenues will benefit the UK exchequer.
Trade works two ways, and we would also be able to abolish our tariffs on importing sports footwear (16.9 per cent) or tomato ketchup (10.2 per cent), helping British companies and lowering our bills.
Instead of trying to stay in the Single Market and its Customs Union, people in the City need to ask these questions: what do we want from Brexit that will give us a competitive advantage, and how do we get it?
We also need to ask who is undermining our negotiating position and weakening our case – and how can we stop their pointless self-harm, and get them to join us in getting the best deal – so we all benefit.

http://www.cityam.com/269211/trade-immoral-customs-union-fruitful-deals-benefit

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Quite correct. If ever there were a big, big RED LINE the fate of over 3 million EU national is it.
There is no way the EU can allow itself to cut adrift so many people. Wether it be principle or just weight of numbers.
If Britain condemns those 3 million to limbo there is no way Britain will be able to trade with the 27.
Others have suggested that there are problems that might tear the EU apart. Well this is one issue that could end the EU in a blink of an eye if they were to abandon their own citizens to the mercy of the British Government.

This isn't WW2 so no need to be so over dramatic. The UK is a responsible caring nation that will meet it's obligations to those already here. However it won't leave itself open to unreasonable demands.

setmefree2

If Barnier is warning of poor progress - I'd say most of that was down to him....he's useless...and the EU are greedy....it's no wonder it takes the EU decades to sign trade deals...

setmefree2

UK retail sales shoot higher in July, boosted by clothing sales - CBI

British retail sales growth hit a three-month high in July, boosted by groceries and summer clothing, according to a survey on Thursday that bucked other signs of a consumer slowdown.

http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/27/uk-retail-sales-shoot-higher-in-july-boosted-by-clothing-sales-cbi

setmefree2

The EU is struggling to compromise over Brexit as it doesn't actually know what it wants out of it

• Stephen Booth Director of Policy and Research at Open Europe

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/27/eu-struggling-compromise-brexit-doesnt-actually-know-wants/

setmefree2

It looks like the Dutch won't be able to have dual nationality.

Netherlands holds firm on opposition to dual nationality post-Brexit

Dutch PM responds to petition on passports as 100,000 citizens in UK face uncertainty

The Dutch government has issued an uncompromising warning to its nationals living in Britain that if they take UK citizenship as a means of circumventing the uncertainty about their future residency posed by Brexit, they will lose their Dutch passports.
There has been growing pressure on caretaker prime minister, Mark Rutte, to abandon the country’s opposition to dual nationality for its 17 million citizens, around a million of whom live abroad – and some 100,000 of whom live and work in the UK.
However, responding to a petition of more than 22,000 signatures demanding that the law be changed to allow Dutch citizens hold two passports, Mr Rutte said his opposition to dual nationality would not change – and would continue in any new cabinet.
“Having a nationality is about having an actual link to a certain country,” Mr Rutte contended. “It’s my view that if one’s link to the Netherlands ends, or if the link to another country becomes stronger, then Dutch nationality should end too.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/netherlands-holds-firm-on-opposition-to-dual-nationality-post-brexit-1.3168892

setmefree2

Amazon Says Brexit Is Not Majorly Impacting Hiring Processes

Despite the many implications and uncertainties surrounding various markets after last year’s “Brexit” decision, Amazon appears to be having no real trouble hiring people and expanding its business in the U.K. In fact, the retail shipping giant has revealed plans to double the current task force at the company, in high-tech positions in the research and development sector, from 450 to 900. To accommodate all of the extra employees, Amazon has acquired an entire building in Shoreditch. That’s a change from when, in 2014, Amazon had only planned to occupy 11 floors of the 15-floor structure. That increase in R&D workers is also on top of the already announced pledge to take the number of full-time permanent employees in the U.K. up by 5,000. Amazon has already made significant gains on that front, with approximately 2,000 employees left to go. It also follows several other plans the company has for both the U.K. and E.U. countries, including plans to open up an online car dealership serving both regions.

https://www.androidheadlines.com/2017/07/amazon-says-brexit-not-majorly-impacting-hiring-processes.html

setmefree2

The divorce of Britain and the EU’s bank may get messy

Calculating the UK’s ‘share’ of the EIB is likely to prove difficult and contentious

But the UK is leaving the EU, and so is legally required to leave the EIB. The bank has said it will consider changing its rules to allow the UK to stay, but the latter has shown no inclination to do so, and there is one powerful political reason to leave that will probably trump all others – in the calculation of the huge and controversial UK “financial settlement” or divorce bill, the EIB represents by far the largest shared asset to counterbalance against liabilities.

Of the €243 billion of subscribed EIB capital, only €21 billion is paid in. The rest, specific pledges to stand by the bank from national capitals including London, would only be forthcoming if necessary. But the UK’s share of the paid-in capital is 16 per cent, or €3.4 billion. That, the Barnier paper on the financial settlement endorsed by the 27 suggests, would be an acceptable rebate, paid down gradually as the bank recovered loans.
No way, says London, albeit so far unofficially. A committee of the House of Lords argues that a “a more useful measure” would be the UK’s share of the bank’s equity, reserves and profits (known as the bank’s “own funds”). According to its latest accounts the EIB had net worth of €66.2 billion at end 2016 and it has been posting annual profits of about €2.7 billion. By Brexit Day (March 29th, 2019) the UK’s share of net worth or “own funds” should be at least a whopping €11 billion.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/the-divorce-of-britain-and-the-eu-s-bank-may-get-messy-1.3167805