Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

UK based EU citizens can live anywhere they like in the UK after Brexit.
EU based UK citizens can live anywhere they like in their EU country of residence after Brexit.

Looks pretty equitable to me.

No, it isn't.

After Brexit an EU citizen currently living in the UK can live in the UK or any EU country they wish.

But after Brexit a UK citizen currently living in say, Spain, can only live either in Spain or the UK.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

Fact check:

Did Barnier say 'give me 100 billion'? Did Barnier even mention 100 billion?

Answer : No
https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

Carry on.

Ah yes, because that is so much better isn't it?

EU: "Agree to pay the bill!"
UK: "How much is this bill?"
EU: "We're not telling you yet. You have to agree to pay it first."

:rotfl:

lisyloo

Rinoa wrote: »

No, it isn't.

After Brexit an EU citizen currently living in the UK can live in the UK or any EU country they wish.

But after Brexit a UK citizen currently living in say, Spain, can only live either in Spain or the UK.

err yes, but EU citizens are part of the EU and UK citizens are part of a country that democratically decided they didn't want to be part of the EU.
Why isn't that equitable?

Herzlos

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/27/uk-retail-sales-shoot-higher-in-july-boosted-by-clothing-sales-cbi

And the rest of the article doesn't seem so positive:

Expectations for August were the strongest since December last year, but the CBI warned it might not last. “While retailers expect a similar pace of growth next month, the factors underpinning their sales growth are more shaky,” said Anna Leach, head of the CBI’s economic intelligence. The Brexit vote in June 2016 led to a big fall in the value of sterling, which has pushed up inflation, gnawing at consumers’ disposable income this year.

So just as last time; retail sales are up slightly (in £ amounts? in volume?) but seems to be down to increased debt / reduced savings.

So it's still goods sales are up a bit, but it's bad that it looks to be short lived and unsustainable.

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

But after Brexit a UK citizen currently living in say, Spain, can only live either in Spain or the UK.

Well yes obviously.
A UK citizen after Brexit will have as much freedom of movement rights in the EU as a Botswanean or a Congolese.
No need to moan about it, it's what you lot voted for.

always_sunny

Rinoa wrote: »

No, it isn't.
After Brexit an EU citizen currently living in the UK can live in the UK or any EU country they wish.
But after Brexit a UK citizen currently living in say, Spain, can only live either in Spain or the UK.

Tit for tat really and both bound to lose the existing permanent residency right if they move away for 2+ years!
(EU nationals will retain they EU FoM, UK nationals won't have it, who knows, might get speedy visas for USA!)

setmefree2

Theresa May 2.0 and her cabinet have reset the government Premium

The UK prime minister has bounced backfrom her election humiltation , writes Sebastian Payne

Theresa May 1.0 has been shut down, and the fresh and improved version 2.0 is up and running. After the botched general election, senior Conservatives concluded that their best option was to reprogramme the UK prime minister instead of replacing her. With no obvious successor, the party has been focused on rebuilding her Downing Street team and shifting power towards the cabinet. They have been successful in both.

The forced departure of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, Mrs May’s co-chiefs of staff, following June’s election humiliation resulted in a power vacuum at the centre of government. Mrs May was floundering in the wake of the poll, until Gavin Barwell was appointed to run Downing Street. He has delivered order out of the chaos and allowed people to get on with their jobs. As a former MP, Mr Barwell is well-known in the House of Commons and has spent much time speaking to those shunned under the Mrs May 1.0 regime. That is precisely why the prime minister picked him and the positive reception she received at a recent drinks party with her MPs confirms they are content with her (for now).

The departure of Chris Wilkins, the prime minister’s head of strategy, represents the final break from the old regime. Mr Wilkins, who has worked with Mrs May since her “nasty party” speech to the Conservative party conference in 2002, was close to Mr Timothy and wrote several of her big speeches since entering Downing Street. Now that he has gone, the clean break from the administration of the last year — demanded by many Tory MPs — has been made. Although the No. 10 operation has largely been rebuilt, there are still many gaps for junior advisers that will be filled over the summer.

The media operation has improved too. The arrival of Robbie Gibb as director of communications, and the appointment of a new communications team with plenty of experience in Westminster, has also improved confidence. The policy announcements have been coming thick and fast recently: Michael Gove’s “green Brexit”, banning petrol and diesel cars by 2040, improving transgender rights, a positive start to US-UK trade talks and, on Thursday, a wide-ranging immigration consultation. The relentless attacks on Labour’s wobbly pledge on student tuition fees have kept the opposition on their toes.

Mrs May 2.0 is far from perfect. Her stiff personality remains unchanged, the government continues to tie itself in knots over Brexit and the unseemly row between Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, and environment secretary Michael Gove over chlorinated chicken highlighted the prime minister’s limited authority. Over the summer break, her best hope is to build on this gradual momentum and carry out a reshuffle later in the year. Without stamping her authority on the government, she will struggle to shape what it does.

The most significant change, however, is the empowerment of the cabinet. In particular, moderate Tories such as Philip Hammond, the chancellor, home secretary Amber Rudd and Damian Green, the de facto deputy prime minister, have shifted the government’s Brexit strategy to a softer position. These secretaries of state have persuaded the majority of their cabinet colleagues that a transition period out of the EU is necessary and that it should be years, not months. For those concerned that a sudden break would lead to economic and administrative chaos, their increased influence (a direct result of the election outcome) is welcome.

There are still some daunting challenges ahead for Mrs May 2.0. She is planning a major speech in September, which will give more details on what Brexit will look like. Then she has to survive her party’s conference at the start of October before addressing a crucial European summit in the same month, where the EU27 leaders will want to know more about Brexit and a transition deal. At any stage, Mrs May could encounter rough waters that will capsize her. But so far, the reboot has been more effective than most of her supporters and detractors predicted.

https://www.ft.com/content/2473c00e-72b6-11e7-93ff-99f383b09ff9

kabayiri

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Ah yes, because that is so much better isn't it?

EU: "Agree to pay the bill!"
UK: "How much is this bill?"
EU: "We're not telling you yet. You have to agree to pay it first."

:rotfl:

They all use the media to float out various outlandish figures, which they let hang there, without being fully confirmed or denied.

It's straight from the politician 101 handbook : let the media be your agent to flush out the other side's position.

If they focussed on the process at arriving at a bill, they would start with 'known facts'.

Well, a 'known fact' is that, legally, UK can walk away without paying any bill whatsoever. The EU rule books should have been tighter on this when drawn up, but they weren't.

So, any bill arrived at should clearly be labelled as "a good will payment" as part of the wider deal.

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

As a consequence the Cabinet is far more balanced, experienced and diverse. The EU wanted Mrs May to crush the internal opposition. As actually saw this as weakness to exploit to their advantage.

That's a rather optimistic view of the political situation in the UK at present Thrugelmir, no shortage of disagreement within both major parties on the type of Brexit deal we should be pursuing, personally I think the cabinet and shadow cabinet are about as weak as they have ever been.

It'll be interesting to see how much unanimity remains when the difficult and politically less popular decisions have to be made.

Obviously on the Labour benches Corbyn and McDonnell would love a hard Brexit, but its not popular with the members and its not popular with Labour voters, which is why even there we've seen a lot of rowing back, although that's shouldn't be news, we'll be waiting a long time before we see a consistent coherent Brexit position from Labour, although to an extent that is the benefit of opposition, you can at least try to be all things to all people.

mayonnaise

kabayiri wrote: »

Well, a 'known fact' is that, legally, UK can walk away without paying any bill whatsoever.

That would send a nice signal to the international community.
A country that can't be trusted to honour its obligations.
How much of a pariah state do you want us to become?