Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Even the EU's senior politico's themselves acknowledge the threats to the EU's existence - but you will not?

Oh there are threats and we're aware of them. Will they dissolve the EU? I doubt it.

What about the threats to the UK's existance? They've also been acknowledged and we're as divided as I think we've ever been.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

Definitely. No EU member (except UK, who has always been a reluctant member) has come as close to leaving the EU as Scotland has the UK - the SNP have a majority in both houses, and we've had a referendum which was nearly as close as Brexit. Whilst there are anti-EU parties in the EU, none of them have any majority or forced a referendum yet.

Oh - are you ignoring what is ongoing with Catalonia and Spain then?
:whistle:

Starting with the town of Arenys de Munt, over 550 municipalities in Catalonia held symbolic referendums on independence between 2009 and 2011, all of them returning a high "yes" vote, with a turnout of around 30% of those eligible to vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence


You do know there are others though, right?
Here's another one:

Would Germany be Germany without Bavaria? The wealthy southern state comprises roughly one-fifth of Germany’s landmass. It is the country’s second-most populous state. Oktoberfest, lederhosen, sauerkraut? All Bavarian in origin.
Yet some Bavarians want nothing to do with Germany. The state is home to a pro-independence Bavaria Party, and one Bavarian man even filed a court case last year in an attempt to force a referendum on whether the state could vote to leave Germany.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/04/a-german-court-has-shut-down-hopes-for-a-breakaway-bavaria/?utm_term=.c87ad2edb556

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

Oh there are threats and we're aware of them. Will they dissolve the EU? I doubt it.
...

I wish the EU were a reformist organisation, but I just can't see it, not in it's current incarnation.

I don't like so called red lines like FOM. I think there's a time and a place for policy to bend, to reflect the changing demands on individual states.

The EU clearly knew how large scale migration change had created tensions within parts of the UK, yet they didn't see it as significant enough to meet Camerons pretty moderate requests.

They are always behind the curve, responding to events too late.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Oh - are you ignoring what is ongoing with Catalonia and Spain then?

Not at all, it's covered by my point. Catalonia has not had an official referendum to leave Spain (though the unoffial ones point to it doing so if it came up). I don't recall Catalonia or Spain having a referendum to leave the EU either.

Here's another one:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/04/a-german-court-has-shut-down-hopes-for-a-breakaway-bavaria/?utm_term=.c87ad2edb556

Did the anti-EU party win a majority and get a referendum to leave the EU? I didn't think so. Anyone in the Western world can file a court case for anything, I could file one for a referendum about Glasgow leaving the UK but it wouldn't be representative of Glaswegians. That someone in Bavaria did file one doesn't have any bearing on anything unless it resulted in a referendum, which it didn't.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make unless you are trying to veer far enough off topic to claim a win.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

Oh, we could help the African states by not being so protectionist about European agriculture.

I agree. Not bombing the infrastructure out of them would certainly help too.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

Not at all, it's covered by my point. Catalonia has not had an official referendum to leave Spain (though the unoffial ones point to it doing so if it came up). I don't recall Catalonia or Spain having a referendum to leave the EU either.



Did the anti-EU party win a majority and get a referendum to leave the EU? I didn't think so. Anyone in the Western world can file a court case for anything, I could file one for a referendum about Glasgow leaving the UK but it wouldn't be representative of Glaswegians. That someone in Bavaria did file one doesn't have any bearing on anything unless it resulted in a referendum, which it didn't.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make unless you are trying to veer far enough off topic to claim a win.

You're blustering again.
The original point is about divisions within the EU as opposed to divisions within the UK, try though you may to detract and make some supposed pro-EU point which in reality does not exist.

Why hasn't Catalonia had an official referendum?
Because the Spanish have done everything they can to prevent it; that is the only reason.
That looks set to change soon though, doesn't it?

As for Bavaria - is it really so different to Salmond, Sturgeon & the SNP? After all the Scottish independence referendum failed; it was not representative of enough Scots obviously.


The one veering off-target is you again refusing to accept fact.
Namely in this instance that there are large, valid and current separatist movements within the EU which suggests then that the UK is not alone in it's threats to national existence despite your attempts to persuade others that the UK is somehow unique in having it's divisions.

Malthusian

Herzlos wrote: »

I agree. Not bombing the infrastructure out of them would certainly help too.

When did we last bomb an African country's infrastructure? Sierra Leone?

kabayiri

Only Africa can solve Africa's problems. That's not a pleasing thought to some, but it's reality.

More Africans kill fellow Africans. The reasons will be manifest, some cultural, some born of injustice.

The EU certainly doesn't have the answer, and it's not to be found by importing 100 million Africans in a flawed hope of cultural enlightenment.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Oh dear.
As if it is not enough that Junckers with his outbursts has not aided opinion surrounding the EU's stance on Brexit, now Michel Barmier appears to be having a hissy-fit of his own because things are not going all his way:

Lack of progress on key divorce issues makes it unlikely that talks on future ties might start in October, Michel Barnier says.

http://news.sky.com/story/eu-negotiator-warns-of-possible-delays-to-brexit-talks-10963798

This is very obviously purely and simply because the UK has not agreed to pay whatever the sum is that the EU request be paid.
Could Brexit come sooner than the end of March 2019 with EU intransigence rather than UK the cause?

kabayiri

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Oh dear.
As if it is not enough that Junckers with his outbursts has not aided opinion surrounding the EU's stance on Brexit, now Michel Barmier appears to be having a hissy-fit of his own because things are not going all his way:
http://news.sky.com/story/eu-negotiator-warns-of-possible-delays-to-brexit-talks-10963798

This is very obviously purely and simply because the UK has not agreed to pay whatever the sum is that the EU request be paid.
Could Brexit come sooner than the end of March 2019 with EU intransigence rather than UK the cause?

Portillo called it right months and months ago.

There will be no real substantive progress on Brexit until the German elections are completely out of the way.

Until then, it will be more a case of political posturing and positioning.

This is a case of trying to blame delays on each other.

The real issue is that the EU don't want to spook the German electorate with pesky issues about jobs and EU stability. They have enough to worry about with the struggle to cope with hundreds of thousands of migrant refugees.