Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Herzlos

A decent article with a bit more insight into what an US/UK trade deal may look like:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/chlorine-washed-chicken-liam-fox-trade-deal-us-ttip-deregulation-a7860706.html

Essentially the TTIP that the EU rejected - lowered food standards, inability to prioritize renewable energy, privitization of health care, companies able to sue the government for hurting their profits.

And what do we get in return? Cheaper meat?

gfplux

cogito wrote: »

They'll split themselves in the end. It all comes down to rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU. Let's remember that Barmier and co are not actually doing any negotiating. They have simply turned up at the meetings with EU position papers and expect the UK to roll over and agree. The UK has clearly and correctly said that ECJ jurisdiction is not acceptable and made reasonable offers to the EU for ways to resolve the impasse. Barmier has said no because he has no authority to negotiate.

If this situation isn't resolved, clearly nothing else can be resolved including the question of the fantasy money that the EU want. The EU position papers are simply a consensus of what the 27 members want and any movement by the EU means that one or more of the members isn't going to be happy. We'll see then just how united the EU members actually are.

With everyone now on holiday (including me, did I mention the beach!) we all have to wait for the next round of negotiations at the end of August.
I will be looking out for some hints from either side of any changes to position so to prepare the public everywhere for a change that would be announced at that round of negotiations. If there are no hints then there is likely to be no change as surely Davis in particular should have learnt to prepare his audience and not be accused of capitulating.

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

Which is my point, though I may have written awkwardly. Those in jobs will likely stay in jobs. It doesn't make sense to deport a couple of million workers.

Makes sense but those from the EU will have to register and that will take a long time. Having to register to keep your job is not a great incentive to stay.
Of course if the talks break down the UK Government will not have to set this registration system up. Perhaps they know it will never happen or they know the task is beyond the civil service without throwing a lot of money at it.

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

Even if there is a total breakdown of relationships between the UK and EU, which I hope won't happen, the UK will seek to support those EU workers already here and working. To not do so would damage the economy and cause shortages in key sectors such as the NHS.

Those that aren't formally employed, or who are claiming benefits or are retired would be the ones that should worry in that circumstance, whether here or in the EU27. Anyone who takes more out than they put into a system.

Agreed, what sort of support did you have in mind?
Perhaps getting them to register and granting them indefinite leave to stay was one thing I thought of. That would have to include non working trailing spouse and children.

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

Thanks. That largely confirms what I thought, Mini's sell most in the US and UK, so having a plant in the UK that's just agreed to ditch their pensions seems a reasonable thing to keep doing.




I'm not sure, I'd have thought a lot of the foreigners would be allowed to move their job to another branch. It could always be that a lot of them have decided to retire early or change careers which has produced a bit of a shortfall.

Sorry to be pedantic but you forgot the biggest market.
Back of the envelope using those 2012 figures I get this.

EU 94,000 excluding U.K.
USA 66,000
UK 51,000

So presently a mini produced in Britain can be freely exported to the EU and to the USA (with duty of course)
Post Brexit minis built in the UK might still be exported to the EU and minis built in the EU will still move freely.
However a big win for Britain and UK and BMW Could be a free trade deal signed the day after Brexit with the USA agreeing zero tariffs both ways on cars could ensure prosperity in Cowley and American made BMW's coming into Britain.

Of course signing a USA/UK deal BREXIT +1 is not likely but worth thinking about.

always_sunny

kabayiri wrote: »

Nope. I don't worry about the EU migrants one bit. It's their problem to work out.

Actually as an EU migrant I completely disagree; like you I am not worried one bit because the UK needs to work out.

If the UK doesn't resolve the issue it's going to be stuck with 5% of the population in limbo.
I cannot imagine EU member states' ratifying any EU/UK FTA if the issue with their nationals is not addressed.

Countries outside the EU are looking at the same bargaining chip like "Australia has warned Britain the issue of visas will weigh heavily on the success or failure of trade deal talks."

A_Medium_Size_Jock

kabayiri wrote: »

Personally, if I wanted to gain the upper hand, I would find ways to split the EU27. You go for the soft targets, like Eire. Their trade traffic could easily be put in to a very precarious position.

Interesting how the pro-EU contingent ignore what already threatens that EU unity, isn't it?
NOT to suggest that the EU is falling apart at the seams BTW.
Not yet, at least.

Apart from various countries and factions already calling for EU leniency in Brexit trade talks (Denmark, Ireland, Bavaria etc.) there are other potentially divisive factors:

The EU is threatening Poland with being stripped of it's voting rights: http://www.politico.eu/article/article-7-judiciary-european-commission-to-put-poland-on-path-to-ultimate-eu-sanction-if-top-judges-sacked/

The Visegrad nations are it seems losing their battle to refuse the relocation of migrants: http://www.france24.com/en/20170726-brussels-piles-pressure-eu-eastern-bloc-countries-migrants-poland-hungary-slovakia-czech

Politico publicises the inherent dishonesty within the EU's leading nation: http://www.politico.eu/article/daimler-volkswagen-bmw-porsche-audi-siemens-the-dishonest-germans/

External threats as the USA sanctions against Russia could, it seems according to Junckers, 'have "unintended unilateral effects" on the EU's energy security.'. : http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/26/europe/russia-us-sanctions/index.html

Should we even mention migrants and the effect upon Italy, Greece and increasingly Spain?
And the above is far from an exhaustive summary.

Again note that I am not predicting or indeed wishing imminent demise for the EU. I have said before that EU difficulties inevitably also affect the UK to some degree at least.
These problems do exist though and are without doubt threats to continued EU cohesion.
Whether or not the EU survives intact remains to be seen.

Herzlos

I don't think we're ignoring them, we just don't see them as something that'll actually dissolve the EU.

However, what are we planning to do about this stuff? We could veto these things and encourage the EU to be more like what we want, or we could just walk away and deal with whatever it turns into.

If you're so worried about the effect of migrants on Eastern EU, why aren't we volunteering to help them out by either (a) taking more than a handful of them or (b) sending them some sort of aid/staffing/cash?

What should we be doing about these refugees (rather than migrants)? Send them home and hope that (a) it's still there and (b) they can survive there?

always_sunny

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Interesting how the pro-EU contingent ignore what already threatens that EU unity, isn't it?
NOT to suggest that the EU is falling apart at the seams BTW.
Not yet, at least.

Can't the same thing be said for the UK though? The country is still fairly divided and even within countries in the UK there's no strong unity. I'd think it's easier to crack the UK than then EU.

Rinoa

I reckon it's just a matter of time. The EU want too much.