Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

This is talking about number of job adverts being listed, and I can easily see new hiring totally freeze around June 2017 due to uncertainty.

So this article is saying that job availability is up 17% compared to presumably the worst month/quarter for jobs availability. Is it back to pre-referrendum highs?

I don't know, but have you considered the vacancies are caused by them damb foreign immigrants from the EU being run out of town?

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

One thing we have in the UK which differs from Europe is a fairly partisan press.

If you can whip up sentiment and support from the likes of DM/Express/Sun you have a sizeable audience.

I think there will be opportunities to turn the mood against the EU negotiators. There isn't really a whole lot of love for Tusk and Juncker and co. They are grey men in suits.

Pushing the UK into the role of underdog could backfire.

Personally, if I wanted to gain the upper hand, I would find ways to split the EU27. You go for the soft targets, like Eire. Their trade traffic could easily be put in to a very precarious position.

I agree with much of the post up to
"Pushing the U.K. Into the role of underdog could backfire"
I am at a complete loss to understand how that can influence the negotiations.

gfplux

Frankly all the boring practical stuff is being ignored by all of us.
The practicalities of a free trade deal
Trying to register 3.2 million EU nationals living in the U.K.
Etc
Etc
Etc

For over 40 years things have just worked and now sugar has been thrown in the engine and too many people think it will all be OK. Well it won't.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

I am at a complete loss to understand how that can influence the negotiations.

Doesn't influence anything. The topic can be returned to at a later date. Simply moves the process along. Rather than getting bogged down.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Trying to register 3.2 million EU nationals living in the U.K.

Aren't the majority already registered, i.e. National Insurance number. Bigger problem is for those under the radar. Paid cash and work in the black economy.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Did you notice how the 'mood music' changed though? Fox, who was against transitional arrangement is now all for them, then the cabinet are united in the need for them.

Everyone has to compromise at some point. While the UK Government can adapt and form a consensus stance. One suspects that the EU is going to get bogged down in the mire. With self interest and to a degree dislike over ruling pragmatism.

Herzlos

gfplux wrote: »

I managed to find this from 2012
http://raycee1234.blogspot.fr/2013/02/bmw-mini-car-sales-by-country-2012.html
It looks like the mini is very popular but where you would build a new model only BMW knows.

Thanks. That largely confirms what I thought, Mini's sell most in the US and UK, so having a plant in the UK that's just agreed to ditch their pensions seems a reasonable thing to keep doing.

gfplux wrote: »

I don't know, but have you considered the vacancies are caused by them damb foreign immigrants from the EU being run out of town?

I'm not sure, I'd have thought a lot of the foreigners would be allowed to move their job to another branch. It could always be that a lot of them have decided to retire early or change careers which has produced a bit of a shortfall.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Thanks. That largely confirms what I thought, Mini's sell most in the US and UK, so having a plant in the UK that's just agreed to ditch their pensions seems a reasonable thing to keep doing.




I'm not sure, I'd have thought a lot of the foreigners would be allowed to move their job to another branch. It could always be that a lot of them have decided to retire early or change careers which has produced a bit of a shortfall.

Yet again let's all pretend those recent large scale German redundancies and offshoring cases never happened...

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

I agree with much of the post up to
"Pushing the U.K. Into the role of underdog could backfire"
I am at a complete loss to understand how that can influence the negotiations.

Oh the EU negotiators are intransigent alright. I think they'd listen more from moaning individual EU states, that's all.

The underdog bit is about changing UK sentiment towards buying EU goods. We've seen sentiment bed in before. Nobody pretty much buys the Sun newspaper in Liverpool, not since Hillsborough.

Now, the French are fiercely defensive of their agriculture and livestock business, which is in some respects admirable. We could whip up a bit of UK-first buying sentiment here. It'd give the Daily Mail a break from house prices!

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

...
Doesn't anybody understand they should worry about this?
It's all the practical stuff that will cause the problems,

Nope. I don't worry about the EU migrants one bit. It's their problem to work out.

I don't think they should be offered any rights until a complete settlement on all matters EU-UK is arrived at.