Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

And on that basis, I don't personally care if some jobs are lost in London. Why should I?

Because you'll have to chip in to cover some of the tax shortfall we're likely to get by chasing high tax payers into another country.

You want to keep as many bankers in London as you can purely out of self interest.

lisyloo

I don't personally care if some jobs are lost in London. Why should I?

From an economic point of view, you should care if corporation tax AND personal tax from higher earners is being lost. These people are net contributors as well as their wealth being spread to a number of restaurants/cleaners/retail/cafes/cinemas/theatres/taxi drivers etc.


There is no magic money tree (haven't you heard :-) so we need people and companies who are net contributors because there are plenty of people who are net takers.

kabayiri

lisyloo wrote: »

From an economic point of view, you should care if corporation tax AND personal tax from higher earners is being lost. These people are net contributors as well as their wealth being spread to a number of restaurants/cleaners/retail/cafes/cinemas/theatres/taxi drivers etc.


There is no magic money tree (haven't you heard :-) so we need people and companies who are net contributors because there are plenty of people who are net takers.

Indeed, and this with Herzlos point is based on a reasonably logical point about the idea of collective good.

I put forward the idea, before the referendum, that people would vote on what they saw were local issues. I still stand by this statement.

If you look at voting patterns you see true partisan interests coming through.

It's not just North/South. It's the divide between wealthy Uni Towns and places not so far away which get overlooked.

Somehow, the collectivisation/trickle down message has become lost. If you read lots of comments from people attending something like the Work Program, you can see how the attendees who receive state support despise the very same people who provide for their welfare!

Maybe the Brexit vote did come at a wrong time. I can't imagine it would have turned out the same if we had carried out the referendum a decade earlier.

mayonnaise

ilovehouses wrote: »

This merger will see 10% of the 1000 jobs in their private wealth division move to Europe - that's a lot.

I remember Conrad proclaiming it would be a simple matter of brass plating. How times change.

cogito

kabayiri wrote: »

They don't accept the UK government position, because they are clearly monitoring the public mood and dissenting voices.

More fool them then. The only voices that matter are those of the negotiating team and the UK parliament.

And if they continue to prove intransigent by saying no to every reasonable suggestion put forward bu the UK team, they will soon find the mood turning even further against them in the UK.

kabayiri

cogito wrote: »

More fool them then. The only voices that matter are those of the negotiating team and the UK parliament.

And if they continue to prove intransigent by saying no to every reasonable suggestion put forward bu the UK team, they will soon find the mood turning even further against them in the UK.

One thing we have in the UK which differs from Europe is a fairly partisan press.

If you can whip up sentiment and support from the likes of DM/Express/Sun you have a sizeable audience.

I think there will be opportunities to turn the mood against the EU negotiators. There isn't really a whole lot of love for Tusk and Juncker and co. They are grey men in suits.

Pushing the UK into the role of underdog could backfire.

Personally, if I wanted to gain the upper hand, I would find ways to split the EU27. You go for the soft targets, like Eire. Their trade traffic could easily be put in to a very precarious position.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

This merger will see 10% of the 1000 jobs in their private wealth division move to Europe - that's a lot.

The impact of Brexit on their wider strategy remains to be seen. There's no about face - you're comparing apples and oranges.

No, rather you are struggling as usual.
Why not stop talking fruit and look at the wider picture?

Bank will move ‘several hundred’ staff on day one after Brexit

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-11/dimon-says-europe-could-force-more-brexit-moves-after-first-step

That from 16,000 according to this, which again mentions the four thousand:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/04/jamie-dimon-admits-not-many-jp-morgan-jobs-will-leave-uk-major/

So to your "wider strategy" - the original estimate of 4,000 from their 16,000 would have been 25%, yes?
And now tell us what "several hundred" from 16,000 is?
Just over 3% if you round up to 500 for generosity's sake.
Three percent!
If that "several hundred" is not an about-face from 4000 then nothing ever will be.


As said before, indeed more may go or they may not; read the first link.
You will have to wait quite some time yet before you - or Mayo - can gloat and rub your hands in glee.

Before the inevitable ping-pong response style you appear to love so dearly is attempted, here is a definition of "several":

more than two but not many.

buglawton

ilovehouses wrote: »

This merger will see 10% of the 1000 jobs in their private wealth division move to Europe - that's a lot.

The impact of Brexit on their wider strategy remains to be seen. There's no about face - you're comparing apples and oranges.

That might slightly ease the housing squeeze in overcrowded London. All good.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

I remember Conrad proclaiming it would be a simple matter of brass plating. How times change.

They have changed?
Oh please do explain how - we would love to hear?
Especially since no decisions have been reached and Brexit negotiations have not been concluded.
Not to mention that JPMorgan say the same in my post above, in the link from Bloomberg.



*Note*
Fact and statistics will be required here.
Not forecasts.
The facts so far were given in post #1942:


* More jobs; 17% more than this time last year.
(If jobs had gone surely there would be less - since some seem to struggle with the concept.)
* No evidence of jobs moving yet.
* Investment in UK premises by EU banks.

mayonnaise

Interesting article in the FT today.

The UK economy since the Brexit vote — in 5 charts

https://www.ft.com/content/cf51e840-7147-11e7-93ff-99f383b09ff9

Only for those who prefer facts over the Robert Walters City Job Index (:)).