Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

always_sunny

let's be nice...at least the Express is optimistic!

BRITAIN'S economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2017, as doom-monger forecasts of a Brexit downturn were again shrugged off, official figures revealed

fatbeetle

Not just the Express; http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40726833

Herzlos

gfplux wrote: »

If you have a hard Brexit how will the new mini electric get its engines into the country?

Do we know where the bulk of Mini sales are? I haven't been able to find out, but Mini sells about the same in the US as Europe, and I assume Mini to primarily be a UK market car.

So if it's going to sell most models in the UK (assuming the US has it's own Mini factory), then building them in the UK is the obvious thing to do. You're still paying whatever tariff to import all the components, but you're not going to be paying tariffs to import the finished product, and not exporting many of them back to Europe so tariffs aren't as big a deal.

So even with a bad Brexit, building Mini's in the UK seems like a pretty safe move.

I'm not sure if the same could be said for any car that sells a lot in mainland Europe though.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

This is an interesting one; it has long been the case that the UK for example when finding migrants illegally entering from France have not returned them but have processed them here.
Hence the previous camps around Calais and the continuing efforts around the Channel Tunnel.

Well it seems that the ECJ have just upheld Austria and Slovenia's case that migrants/refugees must seek asylum in the first country they seek.
Who remembers Croatia laying on buses to transport these migrants/refugees to Austria etc?

The EU's top court has ruled that a law requiring refugees to seek asylum in the first country they reach applies even in exceptional circumstances.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40714946

Herzlos

I wonder how that's impacted by us not being in the EU - if they make it over here will we have any mechanism to return them to France?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

I wonder how that's impacted by us not being in the EU - if they make it over here will we have any mechanism to return them to France?

Legally though the right has been established.
Now what about those that made it to the UK over these past years?
Who knows, there may be a case for recompense from the EU.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Legally though the right has been established.
Now what about those that made it to the UK over these past years?
Who knows, there may be a case for recompense from the EU.

The right has been established as part of a body and judiciary we're leaving. Will that right be carried over into our new agreement, or will we find ourselves outside of that arrangement?

We won't be able to appeal to the ECJ if France tell us to go forth and multiply.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

The right has been established as part of a body and judiciary we're leaving. Will that right be carried over into our new agreement, or will we find ourselves outside of that arrangement?

We won't be able to appeal to the ECJ if France tell us to go forth and multiply.

Didn't you say recently that being subject to ECJ rulings after Brexit wouldn't be a problem?

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

Didn't you say recently that being subject to ECJ rulings after Brexit wouldn't be a problem?

Yeah I'm fine with being under the ECJ, but IIRC that's one of Jocks red lines, as well as being the red line for the UK Brexit team.

So it seems we're leaving the ECJ jurisdiction, so I think it's reasonable that we can't use that jurisdiction (which we apparently don't want) in order to uphold the bits we like whilst ignoring the reason.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

The right has been established as part of a body and judiciary we're leaving. Will that right be carried over into our new agreement, or will we find ourselves outside of that arrangement?

We won't be able to appeal to the ECJ if France tell us to go forth and multiply.

Being in or out the EU is irrelevant.
Migrants arriving illegally via EU countries must be processed in the first EU country of arrival.

If the UK can prove that a migrant has arrived from (say) France without EU identification papers then legally France would have no option other than to accept their return.
I suppose were France to refuse, the UK could sue since international law says such illegal migrants may be returned as long as they would not be at risk of "grave human rights violations".

But this kinda misses the point which is that the EU themselves, via the ECJ, might have just given the UK another Brexit bargaining tool.
After all, last year the UK processed 38,517 asylum seekers.
At what cost - and this for just one year?
Since it is not possible to walk to the UK, by far the majority must arrive via an EU entry-point.

Do not take this as a suggestion of what will happen BTW.
The possibility however is there; also it will undoubtedly make further French encouragement (as before at Sangatte etc.) much more difficult to justify.

BTW, you do seem to have a difficulty differentiating between posting an article and agreeing with the article.
In this case the law is the law whether you, I or anybody else likes it or not.
Whether it applies to you or I is irrelevant; what is relevant is how the law relates to a person passing through the countries where that law does apply.



http://www2.ohchr.org/english/issues/migration/taskforce/docs/Discussion-paper-expulsions.pdf

https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/assets/0004/0083/Asylum_in_Europe_March_2017.pdf