Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

always_sunny

gfplux wrote: »

If you have a hard Brexit how will the new mini electric get its engines into the country?

That's marginal, apparently... wasn't that article in the Austrian paper about Supply Chain?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

always_sunny wrote: »

That's marginal, apparently... wasn't that article in the Austrian paper about Supply Chain?

Obviously you read it then.
So now go on to explain how something built in Oxford, UK is classed as German Industry?
:think:

Despite the owners being German, Brexit has obviously not prevented the decision to build here.
What a shame that some in our own country cannot be as supportive of the country they choose to live in, preferring instead derision and/or negativity.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

These jobs are becoming less skilled. Especially as the battery, drive train and IP will be imported.

British manufacturing has been in decline for decades. Still a Mini body panel plant in Swindon.

On a wider note many jobs are less skilled. Take virtually any administration based role. Technology is dumbing down the job. By 2020 estimated that 12% of the working population will be earning the minimum age. There's a slow but subtle change.

buglawton

ilovehouses wrote: »

Of course. Some seem to think everything is about Brexit - if UK workers are willing to take a pay cut they'll become more attractive to take lower skilled jobs.

These jobs are becoming less skilled. Especially as the battery, drive train and IP will be imported.

Not being negative - electrification will massively reduce complexity and reduce the skills required to assemble cars. Winter is coming for all European car makers.

It'll be interesting to see how the e-Mini competes with the Chinese e-MG compact hatch. Both derived from an original British car.

TrickyTree83

ilovehouses wrote: »

What are you expecting? Everyone to take to the street and sing Land of Hope and Glory?

No, I don't think anyone is, a bit of pragmatism and honesty wouldn't go amiss though.

Frankly it's descended into some wanting to be proved right more than make a success of it. Petty and immature if you ask me.

GreatApe

ilovehouses wrote: »

Of course. Some seem to think everything is about Brexit - if UK workers are willing to take a pay cut they'll become more attractive to take lower skilled jobs.

These jobs are becoming less skilled. Especially as the battery, drive train and IP will be imported.

Not being negative - electrification will massively reduce complexity and reduce the skills required to assemble cars. Winter is coming for all European car makers.

even without electrification winter is coming for the auto industry thanks to self drive technology

The average British car only does 9,000 miles and lives 12 years.
A more typical (median) British car might be 6,000 miles annually and 10 years.
That means utilization of a car is only about 3-4% the other 96-97% it sits idle

If computer taxi fleets could be utilized at just 14% and sit idle for 86% of the time that menas the uk fleet of cars could be cut from 32 million cars to just 8 million robo fleet cars. Even if robo cars are replaced in half the time and only kept for 5 years instead of the more typical 10 years for human cars that means new sales of cars halves

Once self drive tech hits the car industry is screwed.
It will have to consolidate rapidly and close about half of its factories.

That happens with or without electrification

GreatApe

Thrugelmir wrote: »

British manufacturing has been in decline for decades

Its great news, hopefully manufacturing can become like agriculture. Only 1-2% of the workforce and GDP. This does not mean we will not produce manufactured goods it just means they will be so cheap and plentiful it wont be a big part of the workforce or economy. Just like primary agriculture today.

TrickyTree83

ilovehouses wrote: »

You honestly don't see that thinking brexit is going to be net negative has been hijacked to being evidence of a lack of patriotism? It's a nonsense - I voted remain for the same reason you voted leave - I thought it was best for the UK. One of us is wrong - I didn't vote remain with malicious intent and vice versa.

Well that's just it, 52% of the populace believed that other things were in the best interests of the nation. Rather than try and prove each other right or wrong after the fact, it's happening so it must be made to work for the population. Doom-mongering in the face of positive news - which there has been quite a bit of today (yesterday at the time of posting) - is ignored above a devotion to the faith that remaining was the right choice.

I wouldn't accuse anyone who voted remain of a lack of patriotism, I think that argument completely misses the point. It's happening, we will be leaving the EU and across the two major parties single market membership is not an option.

My personal belief is that the net negative you talk of is less harmful than what would come under continued EU membership. Outside of the EU, and even the single market (which I would have been fine to remain in) we will still be able to forge a successful future for ourselves the way we want. There will be no higher power than parliament who answer to me, you and everyone else here. Sometimes what you're most afraid of is the very thing that can set you free.

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

By sea. In all likelihood there'll be manufactured or at least the components will be in the Far East.

The DP World London Gateway Port is only running at around 30% capacity.

You bring it back to the BMW announcement. The engine/drive train/battery will be manufactured in a purpose built plant in Germany. The "new" plug in electric mini will be manufactured in UK.
A hard Brexit will make it difficult/expensive to get the Engine/drivetrain/battery to the UK.
A hard Brexit will mean switching the production of the car to Holland.
All this is all in the announcement by BMW.
BMW are being very nimble.

gfplux

buglawton wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see how the e-Mini competes with the Chinese e-MG compact hatch. Both derived from an original British car.

I didn't know about the e-MG.
However they are likely be aimed at two different segments of the market and be priced very differently.
As someone who will buy plug in electric in due course I look forward to more information on both cars.

Edit. Just looked at the MG. Very swish. "The talk" is of a 2020 launch. Looks more of a competitor to Plug in electric sports cars like the BMW and Tesla, not the mini.