Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
So it seems we're leaving the ECJ jurisdiction, so I think it's reasonable that we can't use that jurisdiction (which we apparently don't want) in order to uphold the bits we like whilst ignoring the reason.

Whilst we pay for membership, we should still get the membership facilities.

This includes any rulings such as reinforcement of the Dublin Agreement.

The state known as 'leaving' is immaterial. We have either left or not left.

kabayiri

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

....
If the UK can prove that a migrant has arrived from (say) France without EU identification papers then legally France would have no option other than to accept their return.
I suppose were France to refuse, the UK could sue since international law says such illegal migrants may be returned as long as they would not be at risk of "grave human rights violations".
...

Countries are savvy enough to put up practical barriers IMO.

If you have 10,000 cases to process, and you have a team of 3 state officials, you create an immediate backlog which creates a similar effect to direct refusal.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Relating in a way to this, an EU "court adviser" says that Poland & Hungary's refusal to accept migrants should be dismissed.

The two eastern EU states -- backed by neighbour Poland -- had argued that the EU's 2015 scheme to have each member state host a certain number of refugees was unlawful. The programme was designed to help ease pressure on asylum systems in Greece and Italy after mass arrivals across the Mediterranean.
But the court's Advocate General Yves Bot rejected most of the procedural arguments presented by Bratislava and Budapest and said the resettlement scheme was appropriate.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-slovakia-hungary-idUKKBN1AB0Y2?il=0

It will be interesting to see how this develops.

kabayiri

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Relating in a way to this, an EU "court adviser" says that Poland & Hungary's refusal to accept migrants should be dismissed.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-slovakia-hungary-idUKKBN1AB0Y2?il=0

It will be interesting to see how this develops.

Do we really think thousands of Syrian/Other migrants who happen to be Muslim are going to voluntarily head to Poland or Hungary?

I don't. In fact, they'd be nuts. The public have expressed their sentiment there quite clearly.

cogito

kabayiri wrote: »

Do we really think thousands of Syrian/Other migrants who happen to be Muslim are going to voluntarily head to Poland or Hungary?

I don't. In fact, they'd be nuts. The public have expressed their sentiment there quite clearly.

If the EU in it's infinite wisdom decides that they must go there, they wouldn't have a choice. The Poles and Hungarians see things differently though and that puts them and the other Visegrads on a collision course with the EU.

cogito

cogito wrote: »

This article should be compulsory reading for anyone who believes that the EU are seriously negotiating with the UK.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/eu-authoritarianism-complexity/

I have posted before that the EU are not in fact negotiating but Barmier has been sent with an inflexible set of position papers that every EU member has signed up to. This gives a veneer of unity but we'll see how long it lasts if the UK sticks to its red lines. Negotiating implies compromise but we can see how much the EU is willing to compromise when it rejects the UK's reasonable offer on the rights of EU citizens in the UK. There are two million EU citizens living in Canada but the EU didn't raise the subject of jurisdiction by the ECJ when negotiating its trade deal.

There's also an interesting scenario brewing over Irish exports to other EU countries. 80% of these go through the UK which is many hours faster than going by sea which matters a lot when these are perishable items. This potentially raises a number of issues over inspections. No doubt the EU will strain at a gnat as usual and hack off the Irish in the process.

And here's another one from the European Policy Centre which laughingly describes itself as an independent think tank despite being funded by the EU And other pro-EU bodies.

http://www.epc.eu/pub_details.php?cat_id=4&pub_id=7865

It's been retweeted by Sabine Weyand who is Barmier's right hand woman at the EU/UK discussions. She would not have done this without Barmier's endorsement.

It should by now be abundantly clear to Remainers that the EU are not negotiating at all but have simply presented the UK team with a set of unacceptable demands from which they are not prepared to budge.

It makes me wonder why we are even bothering to turn up to these meetings as we have thousands of civil servants tied up with them whose time would be better spent preparing for life outside the EU.

They have their red lines. We have ours. The EU clearly doesn't understand the concept of a sovereign state so let's not continue with this farce and leave them wondering where they will get the money to fund their army and other schemes.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

cogito wrote: »

And here's another one from the European Policy Centre which laughingly describes itself as an independent think tank despite being funded by the EU And other pro-EU bodies.

http://www.epc.eu/pub_details.php?cat_id=4&pub_id=7865

It's been retweeted by Sabine Weyand who is Barmier's right hand woman at the EU/UK discussions. She would not have done this without Barmier's endorsement.

It should by now be abundantly clear to Remainers that the EU are not negotiating at all but have simply presented the UK team with a set of unacceptable demands from which they are not prepared to budge.

It makes me wonder why we are even bothering to turn up to these meetings as we have thousands of civil servants tied up with them whose time would be better spent preparing for life outside the EU.

They have their red lines. We have ours. The EU clearly doesn't understand the concept of a sovereign state so let's not continue with this farce and leave them wondering where they will get the money to fund their army and other schemes.

Perhaps that's why we see such as this?

Brexit: Johnson, Davis and Fox push agenda on three continents

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40716323

I have stated my opinion before that huge EU fines being levied are in truth no more than at attempt to boost funds in an attempt to delay the inevitable consequences of the UK's removal of funding, the recent threat of action regarding a VW-BMW-Daimler conspiracy being one of the latest.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Following all the banking hoo-hah and particularly that surrounding JPMorgan comes this today:

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), the biggest U.S. bank by assets, is planning to merge its UK-based private banking unit with its wider European wealth operation ahead of the UK's exit from the European Union, Sky News reported on Wednesday. The merger will lead to the relocation of fewer than 100 of the roughly 1,000 jobs in the private banking unit in Britain, to Europe, Sky reported, citing sources.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-jpmorgan-restructuring-idUKKBN1AB1J6?il=0

Whatever happened to:

JP Morgan, which was one of the big Wall Street donors to Britain Stronger in Europe, the official Remain campaign, warned before the referendum that it could need to relocate as many as 4,000 UK-based jobs after Brexit.

http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-spurs-jp-morgan-to-merge-private-bank-10962301

"Under 100" is significantly less than 4000 although yes, we may prefer not to lose any.
And yes, I know it's not a "done deal" yet but still this alone is quite a volte-face.

always_sunny

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

"Under 100" is significantly less than 4000 although yes, we may prefer not to lose any.
And yes, I know it's not a "done deal" yet but still this alone is quite a volte-face.

Bloomberg had a nice infographic, maybe it'll get updated with JPMorgan, so far... Frankfurt seems the biggest gainer but as you say, nothing it's a done deal yet. Position on passporting is not resolved yet and still over a year to go before it's real Brexit.
Losing ~1/3 of these jobs is not ideal.

kabayiri

cogito wrote: »

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They have their red lines. We have ours. The EU clearly doesn't understand the concept of a sovereign state so let's not continue with this farce and leave them wondering where they will get the money to fund their army and other schemes.

They don't accept the UK government position, because they are clearly monitoring the public mood and dissenting voices.

So yes, it is a challenge to the role of an entity like a sovereign state and it's representatives.

I could accuse all the other French parties ganging up in the recent French elections, to push Macron in to power. But I accept that as a sovereign nation they have the right to run an electoral system which suits them.

I expect discussions to become more bitter before improving.