Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

Bloomberg had a nice infographic, maybe it'll get updated with JPMorgan, so far... Frankfurt seems the biggest gainer but as you say, nothing it's a done deal yet. Position on passporting is not resolved yet and still over a year to go before it's real Brexit.
Losing ~1/3 of these jobs is not ideal.

A 132,000 jobs were lost in the City in the aftermath of the GFC. Even now global banks are cutting their headcount by a further 10% - 15%.

The number therefore needs to be viewed in context. Banking is not the powerhouse it was for a couple of decades.

Funny how people now love bankers. When all they wanted to do was bash them for being overpaid.

setmefree2

cogito wrote: »

The EU clearly doesn't understand the concept of a sovereign state so let's not continue with this farce and leave them wondering where they will get the money to fund their army and other schemes.

It can't have been missed by businesses across Europe that while the EU is in the counting house counting how much money it wants from the UK to feather its nest and refusing to discuss trade - that the UK is off creating trade deals with other countries......

....I can't believe that European companies find this acceptable? But there you go.

setmefree2

Chickengate rumbles on. Lets hope this is the last word (though I doubt it).

Gove rules out imports of US chlorine chicken in post-Brexit trade deal

http://news.sky.com/story/gove-rules-out-imports-of-us-chlorine-chicken-in-post-brexit-trade-deal-10962562

setmefree2

EU supporters ignore the cost of external tariffs - EXPRESS COMMENT

DONALD TRUMP expressed the frustrations of many yesterday when he took aim at the EU’s protectionist policies.

While the supporters of Brussels talk endlessly about the wonders of free trade between members of the EU they are less keen to discuss some of the enormous tariffs on goods from countries outside the customs union.


Many of the unhelpful EU tariffs are in place simply because they offer protection to powerful vested interests.
Moreover, when every member state has to agree to a free trade deal it is all too easy for domestic lobby groups to prevent a continent-wide agreement being reached.

he failure to free up trade beyond Europe’s borders is making the goods we buy at home more expensive and preventing our exporters entering new markets around the world. This is why freeing ourselves from the customs union and winning back the right to strike our own trade deals has always been such a vital part of the Brexit process.
Stephen Pollard writes about the significance of a UK-US deal but such an agreement would just be the start. Countries around the world are already queueing up to do more business with Britain.
The opportunity to break free of Brussels and start striking our own deals is too good to miss.

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/833136/brexit-news-eu-trade-negotiations-tariffs

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

A 132,000 jobs were lost in the City in the aftermath of the GFC. Even now global banks are cutting their headcount by a further 10% - 15%.

The number therefore needs to be viewed in context. Banking is not the powerhouse it was for a couple of decades.

Funny how people now love bankers. When all they wanted to do was bash them for being overpaid.

Absolutely, but there's a difference between jobs lost as a result of GFC vs jobs being relocated elsewhere. That's the context.
To me, it's also very funny how suddenly there's so much support for fishing jobs when banking jobs are relocating. I suppose there's no logic in this.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

always_sunny wrote: »

Bloomberg had a nice infographic, maybe it'll get updated with JPMorgan, so far... Frankfurt seems the biggest gainer but as you say, nothing it's a done deal yet. Position on passporting is not resolved yet and still over a year to go before it's real Brexit.
Losing ~1/3 of these jobs is not ideal.

And yet ..................

Confidence in the City has bounced back after the snap General Election, with the number of jobs rising 17 per cent in June compared to the same time last year, according to the new Robert Walters City Job Index.

http://www.cityam.com/268762/confidence-city-high-job-volumes-rise-nearly-fifth-after

Deutsche Bank is bucking the trend among international investment banks and committing to London despite the looming Brexit.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-plans-new-london-hq-despite-brexit-2017-3

Many financial companies have said they will move some British jobs to continental Europe to keep serving clients in the single market. However Hays (HAYS.L) said it had not received requests to make large-scale hires in Europe. "The reality on the ground is there has been little or no movement at all so far," Finance Director Paul Venables said.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-hays-outlook-idUKKBN19Z0L4?il=0

Now besides taking into account what Thrugelmir says above, bear in mind that the city hosts something like 140,000 finance jobs.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/298358/uk-financial-sector-banking-sector-employment-in-london/

Given how many of the scare stories surrounding Brexit have so far proven to be false and that this example may not be proven until the UK actually leaves the EU I feel sure you will understand my doubting these forecasts.
That is not to say these predictions will not come to pass; evidence to date though does rather promote scepticism.

setmefree2

Investment in UK fintech tops pre-Brexit levels in first half of 2017

Over half a billion dollars were poured into British financial technology companies in the first half of 2017, over a third more than the same period last year, trade body Innovate Finance said on Wednesday, in the latest sign the fast-growing sector is so far weathering Brexit.

UK-based fintech startups pulled in $564 million of venture capital investment in the first six months of the year, more than half of which came from outside Britain.
That was up 37 percent from the first half of 2016, and put Britain in third place globally for fintech investment, behind the United States and China.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-fintech-investment-idUKKBN1AA2V5

Herzlos

Confidence in the City has bounced back after the snap General Election, with the number of jobs rising 17 per cent in June compared to the same time last year, according to the new Robert Walters City Job Index.

This is talking about number of job adverts being listed, and I can easily see new hiring totally freeze around June 2017 due to uncertainty.

So this article is saying that job availability is up 17% compared to presumably the worst month/quarter for jobs availability. Is it back to pre-referrendum highs?

setmefree2

David Davis to meet Bavaria’s Horst Seehofer

Germany’s economic powerhouse has close economic ties with the UK.

BERLIN — David Davis, the U.K.’s Brexit Secretary, will be in Germany on Wednesday for talks with Bavarian Premier Horst Seehofer about a post-Brexit relationship

The closed-door meeting in Munich will start at 11 a.m. local time, a spokesperson for the Bavarian state government said. There will be no statement issued or press conference held.

Bavaria, Germany’s second-most populous state and the country’s economic powerhouse, has particularly close economic ties with the United Kingdom. Seehofer has repeatedly stressed the importance of a quick trade deal between the U.K. and EU once the former leaves the bloc.

The trip will also include meetings in Berlin, according to a spokesman at the Department for Exiting the European Union.

A spokesperson for the German Foreign Office said Monday that no public meetings with Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel were planned but declined to give further details.


The Department for Exiting the European Union declined to comment on Davis’ schedule in Germany due to the “private” nature of the meetings, other than saying there would be no meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel.


Davis is on a European tour, and on Tuesday held talks in Prague with Czech Foreign Minister Lubom!r Zaor!lek.

http://www.politico.eu/article/david-davis-to-meet-bavarias-horst-seehofer/

kabayiri

always_sunny wrote: »

...
To me, it's also very funny how suddenly there's so much support for fishing jobs when banking jobs are relocating. I suppose there's no logic in this.

Well, let me be consistent.

I don't remember the wealth management sector of the banking industry (mostly London based) shedding any tears for the loss of the fishing fleets or the relocation of tens of thousands of IT jobs supporting the banking sector to Asia.

This is natural. You support your own interests first.

And on that basis, I don't personally care if some jobs are lost in London. Why should I? I am only interested in my sector; my part of the world. Brexit was a reminder that people vote in pure self interest.