Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Isn't it strange how the pro-EU contingent turn to distraction or failing that downright derision when things do not go their way?
The points must be hitting home.


Here's another reason Ireland are worrying about Brexit:

Irish racehorse trainers and breeders fear a Brexit that impedes the free movement of animals could threaten its success on the track and position as Europe's largest producer of thoroughbreds.

"With bloodstock, we are an export nation and rely heavily on being able to do that unencumbered by any restriction," Beeby said, referring to the two-thirds of foals born in Ireland each year that are exported, 80 percent of them to Britain.
For Ireland's world-renowned trainers, the stakes are just as high.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-horseracing-idUKKBN1AB1N1?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=69

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

You've got to be careful with context. If jobs are lost it's not made any better by reminding people that it was worse during something called the global financial crisis no less.

Rather than supplying context you could be accused of setting a really low bar for success to be claimed.

Self inflicted crisis to put matters in context.

kabayiri

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Isn't it strange how the pro-EU contingent turn to distraction or failing that downright derision when things do not go their way?
The points must be hitting home.


Here's another reason Ireland are worrying about Brexit:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-horseracing-idUKKBN1AB1N1?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=69

I'm sure they feel assured that Monsieur Barnier and his team will defend their interests.

Wait a minute. What am I saying? It's all about red lines and principles, the EU tell us.

That must mean they are stuffed.

So what wins out? Pragmatism over ideals? Only time will tell. I'm selling EU popcorn, btw

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

That might slightly ease the housing squeeze in overcrowded London. All good.

Only if they sell their properties in London and anyone can afford to buy them. Maybe they'll just rent them out or leave them sitting empty.

I agree though, if we shift enough economic contributors out of London we'll drive the prices of London property down.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Three percent!

How many job losses due to Brexit are acceptable? You keep downplaying the banking staff moving to the EU because it's only a couple hundred here and there. Definitely more than the "brass plating" we were told would happen.

100 investment bankers can be putting a lot of money back into the economy.

Sure, it's not as bad as it could be. But are we really going to justify Brexit with "well, it could have been worse!"

Do they need to move all of their staff to the EU before you admit it's a bad thing?

How are we planning to recover the economic input from these guys? I don't want to have to pay more tax for it. I mean, I'm not a fan of bankers but I'm not short sighted enough to think that driving them and their tax receipts out of the country is a good thing.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Isn't it strange how the pro-EU contingent turn to distraction or failing that downright derision when things do not go their way?
The points must be hitting home.

What points are hitting home? What's going well about Brexit so far?

I'll be the first to admit I was wrong, if I do turn out to be wrong, but as I've said, I just can't see it yet. Maybe everything will fall into place once the negotiating starts properly and we'll become a business haven without screwing over the population.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

How many job losses due to Brexit are acceptable? You keep downplaying the banking staff moving to the EU because it's only a couple hundred here and there. Definitely more than the "brass plating" we were told would happen.

Bank staff have been relocated overseas for many years. Little point in continually blaming Brexit for what happens in the commercial business world.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

Only if they sell their properties in London and anyone can afford to buy them. Maybe they'll just rent them out or leave them sitting empty.

I agree though, if we shift enough economic contributors out of London we'll drive the prices of London property down.



How many job losses due to Brexit are acceptable? You keep downplaying the banking staff moving to the EU because it's only a couple hundred here and there. Definitely more than the "brass plating" we were told would happen.

100 investment bankers can be putting a lot of money back into the economy.

Sure, it's not as bad as it could be. But are we really going to justify Brexit with "well, it could have been worse!"

No, no one needs to justify anything to anyone with relation to Brexit. We had a referendum where your vote counted equally as much as anyone else in the UK.

kabayiri

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Bank staff have been relocated overseas for many years. Little point in continually blaming Brexit for what happens in the commercial business world.

Yep. The banking industry has seen significant change since the early 90s, and the rationalization since the GFC has yet to be completed. It doesn't look like the fines coming the way of the big banks have finished yet either.

In the greater scheme it's just another change. Somewhere; somehow; we really need to find other revenue generators which can apply in the other parts of the country.

If we don't, we will end up with much greater division in future.

EU Europe faces similar challenges. I notice that nobody is talking about relocating the banking jobs we lose to Lisbon or Athens. Nope. It's just the wealthy EU parts gaining and stuff the poor Southern states.

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

Do we know where the bulk of Mini sales are? I haven't been able to find out, but Mini sells about the same in the US as Europe, and I assume Mini to primarily be a UK market car.

So if it's going to sell most models in the UK (assuming the US has it's own Mini factory), then building them in the UK is the obvious thing to do. You're still paying whatever tariff to import all the components, but you're not going to be paying tariffs to import the finished product, and not exporting many of them back to Europe so tariffs aren't as big a deal.

So even with a bad Brexit, building Mini's in the UK seems like a pretty safe move.

I'm not sure if the same could be said for any car that sells a lot in mainland Europe though.

I managed to find this from 2012
http://raycee1234.blogspot.fr/2013/02/bmw-mini-car-sales-by-country-2012.html
It looks like the mini is very popular but where you would build a new model only BMW knows.

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

Countries are savvy enough to put up practical barriers IMO.

If you have 10,000 cases to process, and you have a team of 3 state officials, you create an immediate backlog which creates a similar effect to direct refusal.

Just as is planned or (not) working now for the registration of EU nationals working and living in Britain (+3 million cases) to get "settled status". Don't you wonder why there is so much suspicion surrounding Britains red line over the ECJ.
As it happens the line can not form yet as the Government have NOT STARTED to except registration under this "new" system. There is only 612 days to go.
Doesn't anybody understand they should worry about this?
It's all the practical stuff that will cause the problems,