Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

Average WTO tariffs on most of the stuff we sell to the EU are around 3-4%.

Fortunately we now have a very recent practical example of just how tariffs affect trade, so we can gauge how much trade we will lose.

Last June the £ lost around 20% of its value. It's recovered a little but is still down 15% or so.

That means all goods and services we import from the EU now have an effective 15% tariff. Indeed that's why inflation has recently increased.

So, how has that affected EU trade. Is your Sainsbury's Deli still stocked with French and Italian cheeses, do they still sell French, German and Italian wines. Has your local VW or Mercedes dealer shut up shop because people have stopped buying their cars?

It very much appears that EU goods and services are selling just as well despite the 15% hit they've taken.

Conversely British exports are so much cheaper, has this turbo charged growth in exports?
The great promises made by Brexiters (apart from immigration) were that Britain would enter a new prosperous age due to having so many more export markets available.
Frankly this was a little insulting to many British factory's who work hard in the export market.
OK Brexit has surely focused British manufacturers on the world of exports and during the phoney war while Britain waits to exit I hope they have at least increased or at least started exporting to some of the 27.
This increase in volume of exports and increased investment in plant and materials will be showing in the figures by now. I believe it's called grasping the opportunity.
Those posters in tune with this hopefully will tell us the figures.

gfplux

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I have never seen anyone deny that the UK should pay the EU what is rightly owed; I welcome proof of any other suggestion.

The point being missed by some is that the UK should only pay a fair sum for proven commitments as well as being reimbursed for capital which we have contributed towards. We await accurate calculations for whatever sum the EU thinks this will be.
Why do so many have a difficulty with that and try to make more hoo-ha of this "Brexit bill" than is necessary?

It beggars belief that supposedly intelligent people attempt to manipulate anything and everything Brexit-related into either pro- or anti-EU propaganda.
As I have repeatedly said within these forums, the vast majority of my posts are in response to such extreme views from pro-remain advocates as an attempt at displaying a more balanced viewpoint.
I acknowledge (yet again) that Brexit will not be a "walk in the park" but on balance It would appear to be very unlikely that Brexit - especially medium to long term - will be the disaster that some naysayers on here predict.

The negativity surrounding investment may well be substantiated but given the lack of cohesion and the vehement doom-laden rhetoric espoused by so many, why would that be a surprise?
If decreasing investment continues then perhaps in effect all we will see is a form of confirmation bias - which (as has been said) does more and more look like the wish of some for Brexit not to be a success.
But again it's not all bad news, is it?

http://techcitynews.com/2017/06/26/inbound-investment-into-uk-tech-reaches-10-year-high/

Plus significant investment from Google; Amazon; Boeing and more.
Oh and BTW, we (as in the UK) are already involved in trade talks with a number of nations.
Please try to understand the difference between talks and signing trade deals, which under EU rules we cannot do.

Could you help out by linking to any of your posts in 2016 when you acknowledged "that Brexit would not be a walk in the park"

gfplux

BobQ wrote: »

Exactly. As an example I read that UK imports of French cheese have dropped by 25% since Brexit vote. Its still on the shelves, but those on a tight budget will leave it there. And that is without any import tariffs or costs. It may be a temporary thing, but logic says that as inflation further erodes wages buying French cheese will not be so popular.

Sorry this post has been overtaken by more cheese information.

Rinoa

BobQ wrote: »

Thank you for providing a source for my statistic. As I said imports of French cheese are 25% down which this confirms.

Its reassuring that imports of cheddar, edam and gouda are up. Maybe people are just buying cheaper cheese.:)

I think you've misread the stats. Cheddar imports are down, specialty cheeses, presumably French and more expensive, are up.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Conversely British exports are so much cheaper, has this turbo charged growth in exports?
The great promises made by Brexiters (apart from immigration) were that Britain would enter a new prosperous age due to having so many more export markets available.
Frankly this was a little insulting to many British factory's who work hard in the export market.
OK Brexit has surely focused British manufacturers on the world of exports and during the phoney war while Britain waits to exit I hope they have at least increased or at least started exporting to some of the 27.
This increase in volume of exports and increased investment in plant and materials will be showing in the figures by now. I believe it's called grasping the opportunity.
Those posters in tune with this hopefully will tell us the figures.

Had you paid attention to past posts you would see reports from various places in this thread describing how exports are indeed already increasing.
What you should note however is that the "turbo charged growth in exports" of which you speak cannot take place until after the UK leaves the EU since, as you must know, new trade deals cannot be completed until then as per EU guidelines.

But since you appear reluctant to accept the word of anyone except those supporting your anti-UK POV in this thread, here you go with two from June this year to start you off:

UK outperforms both Germany and France’s export growth for five consecutive quarters

http://startups.co.uk/uk-outperforms-germany-and-frances-export-growth/

Scotland’s food and drink exports increased by over 11% in the first quarter of this year, compared with the same period in 2016.

http://www.fwi.co.uk/business/scotlands-food-drink-exports-continue-grow.htm

gfplux wrote: »

Could you help out by linking to any of your posts in 2016 when you acknowledged "that Brexit would not be a walk in the park"

No, if you want them you look for them if you have more free time than I do. You ignore most of what I post any way so why the concern now?
They are there for all to see.

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

According to the dairy industry's own figures cheese imports for the period Jan-March 2016 were 38,028 tonnes compared with Jan-March 2017 38201 tonnes. That's an actual increase albeit small.

Plus butter imports increased by 22%. All this despite having the equivalent of a 15% tariff imposed on them. Makes me wonder if EU trade post Brexit will suffer that much.

https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/processing-trade/imports-exports/uk-dairy-imports/#.WWn6IojyuUk

Do you have the figures for British cheese and milk exports as it would be interesting to know if there has been a similar "business as usual" effect.

Sorry should have looked at link.

Rinoa

gfplux wrote: »

I suspect that as inflation is already eroding purchasing power that choices over food will be driven by price but while French Camembert might no longer on poorer family's table I wonder if it ever was.
So a drop of 25% (volume or quantity) must suggest that all British family's are being squeezed and hurt by the Brexit effect on the Pound

Except that they haven't dropped.

https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/processing-trade/imports-exports/uk-dairy-imports/#.WWn6IojyuUk

Rinoa

gfplux wrote: »

Do you have the figures for British cheese and milk exports as it would be interesting to know if there has been a similar "business as usual" effect.

Sorry should have looked at link.

Very similar year on year. Which again would suggest that price/tariff is not as important as some believe.


https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/processing-trade/imports-exports/uk-dairy-exports/#.WWoLhojyuUk

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

Except that they haven't dropped.

https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/processing-trade/imports-exports/uk-dairy-imports/#.WWn6IojyuUk

Sorry should have looked more carefully at link. They do like to make it complicated.
In fact after a few minutes of browsing the link I am just confused.

BobQ

cogito wrote: »

Imagine that the Civil Service is empowered to legislate. Imagine that the UK Parliament has no power to propose legislation but can only discuss or suggest amendments to the Civil Service proposals which the Civil Service is then free to accept or reject.

That is the relationship between the Commission and the Parliament. Do you think that is democratic? Neither do I.

What I am saying is that it is different, maybe bureaucratic but not undemocratic. I do think that you have oversimplified this matter.
The powers of the EU Parliament have been changed since the original concept (notably by the Maastricht Treaty)

The process of EU legislation is defined in treaties we freely signed (the fact we allowed our UK politicians to sign them or did not have a referendum is not a flaw in the EU)

I agree the Commission generates the draft legislation but the EU Parliament does have the authority to initiate legislation from the Commission Also to become law it does need the approval of the elected EU Parliament and the Council and can be amended and rejected by either.

How different is this in practice to the UK?

- Most UK legislation is initiated by Civil Servants under the direction of Ministers. While there are private members bills they rarely succeed without Ministerial support.

- Some legislation is proposed to Ministers by Select Committees: the EU Parliament has its own committee system to propose legislation.
- Much legislation is enacted through EU Directives and Regulations: in the UK we have Statutory Instruments and Henry VIII powers.

Democracy has many forms.