Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

BobQ

always_sunny wrote: »

It doesn't matter even if the poll says 100% want to remain.
There's no turning back, Brexit of some sort will need to happen, even if that's going to be a Norway style membership.

I agree it will happen even if we end up with a Norwegian type deal and keep FoM, membership of the single market and pay almost as much as being a member. A somewhat pyric victory for Leave I suggest.

Arklight

For the same reason that proud Brits stood against Nazism in 1939, and Mosley's Blackshirts in 1936, we will stand against the fascism of Hard Brexit now.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-nazis-appease-lord-andrew-adonis-labour-peer-1930s-adolf-hitler-uk-leave-eu-a7840501.html

Sapphire

Arklight wrote: »

For the same reason that proud Brits stood against Nazism in 1939, and Mosley's Blackshirts in 1936, we will stand against the fascism of Hard Brexit now.

(Text removed by MSE Forum Team)

I take it you are not British, because clearly sovereignty of our nation is not an issue with you. Obviously, neither is the way the deeply unpleasant unelected EU commissars have been insulting us ever since we voted to Leave (thus making many people ever more convinced that they voted correctly), when they should be negotiating an amicable agreement that will cause the least harm to them and us. Clearly, you can't see that the EU will not work as an empire (rather than as a much more sensible economic arrangement for all countries concerned). Ah well, never mind. You can always go and live in your beloved EU while it does last.

I like the way you plaster each thread with your one liners, presumably hoping to thereby stifle all argument. It won't work, you know.

antrobus

Arklight wrote: »

For the same reason that proud Brits stood against Nazism in 1939, and Mosley's Blackshirts in 1936, we will stand against the fascism of Hard Brexit now.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-nazis-appease-lord-andrew-adonis-labour-peer-1930s-adolf-hitler-uk-leave-eu-a7840501.html

I think you'll find that the Nazis were very keen on establishing a European Union of their very own. That was why they invaded Poland. Followed by Norway, France, and a number of other countries. Etc and so forth. For some strange reason the UK objected to this plan to create a united Europe and declared war on Germany.

Claiming that a hard Brexit is 'fascist' simply means that you need to read a decent book on WWII history.

always_sunny

antrobus wrote: »

...means that you need to read a decent book on WWII history.

In fairness, I think the UK has a different version of WWII history books!

Rinoa

BobQ wrote: »

The question asked is what we are going to be export after Brexit to compensate for the loss of EU trade? Or you think the UK will increase trade with the EU when the tariffs begin?

Average WTO tariffs on most of the stuff we sell to the EU are around 3-4%.

Fortunately we now have a very recent practical example of just how tariffs affect trade, so we can gauge how much trade we will lose.

Last June the £ lost around 20% of its value. It's recovered a little but is still down 15% or so.

That means all goods and services we import from the EU now have an effective 15% tariff. Indeed that's why inflation has recently increased.

So, how has that affected EU trade. Is your Sainsbury's Deli still stocked with French and Italian cheeses, do they still sell French, German and Italian wines. Has your local VW or Mercedes dealer shut up shop because people have stopped buying their cars?

It very much appears that EU goods and services are selling just as well despite the 15% hit they've taken.

Sapphire

antrobus wrote: »

I think you'll find that the Nazis were very keen on establishing a European Union of their very own. That was why they invaded Poland. Followed by Norway, France, and a number of other countries. Etc and so forth. For some strange reason the UK objected to this plan to create a united Europe and declared war on Germany.

Claiming that a hard Brexit is 'fascist' simply means that you need to read a decent book on WWII history.

And boy, don't my parents, grandparents, great-grandparents and even further back know about that German invasion and others. The stories of their experiences would make your hair stand on end – I know the human spirit is resilient and we are adaptable as a species, but I really don't think I would have had the strength and guts to survive what they went through. I wish the ignoramus spouting off about 'fascism' in the UK could experience what they did – I really do. Having that happen, even for a week or so, would soon cure him and others like him of their brainwashed idiocy. :cool:

BobQ

Rinoa wrote: »

Average WTO tariffs on most of the stuff we sell to the EU are around 3-4%.

Fortunately we now have a very recent practical example of just how tariffs affect trade, so we can gauge how much trade we will lose.

Last June the £ lost around 20% of its value. It's recovered a little but is still down 15% or so.

That means all goods and services we import from the EU now have an effective 15% tariff. Indeed that's why inflation has recently increased.

So, how has that affected EU trade. Is your Sainsbury's Deli still stocked with French and Italian cheeses, do they still sell French, German and Italian wines. Has your local VW or Mercedes dealer shut up shop because people have stopped buying their cars?

It very much appears that EU goods and services are selling just as well despite the 15% hit they've taken.

Are you suggesting that EU exports to the UK have increased due to the fall in the £? Sure its easier for the EU to export but can we still afford to buy these products?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's only in the last few hours the government has acknowledged the UK will probably have to pay a 'divorce' bill.

It beggars belief that it's taken more than a year for it to sink in.

We won't be talking about trade deals at this rate until after March 2019. Not totally bad news for UK exporters in the short term - the uncertainty will suppress exchange rates and we'll still be part of the single market.

However, money looking for an investment home will be increasingly avoiding the UK.

I have never seen anyone deny that the UK should pay the EU what is rightly owed; I welcome proof of any other suggestion.

The point being missed by some is that the UK should only pay a fair sum for proven commitments as well as being reimbursed for capital which we have contributed towards. We await accurate calculations for whatever sum the EU thinks this will be.
Why do so many have a difficulty with that and try to make more hoo-ha of this "Brexit bill" than is necessary?

It beggars belief that supposedly intelligent people attempt to manipulate anything and everything Brexit-related into either pro- or anti-EU propaganda.
As I have repeatedly said within these forums, the vast majority of my posts are in response to such extreme views from pro-remain advocates as an attempt at displaying a more balanced viewpoint.
I acknowledge (yet again) that Brexit will not be a "walk in the park" but on balance It would appear to be very unlikely that Brexit - especially medium to long term - will be the disaster that some naysayers on here predict.

The negativity surrounding investment may well be substantiated but given the lack of cohesion and the vehement doom-laden rhetoric espoused by so many, why would that be a surprise?
If decreasing investment continues then perhaps in effect all we will see is a form of confirmation bias - which (as has been said) does more and more look like the wish of some for Brexit not to be a success.
But again it's not all bad news, is it?

http://techcitynews.com/2017/06/26/inbound-investment-into-uk-tech-reaches-10-year-high/

Plus significant investment from Google; Amazon; Boeing and more.
Oh and BTW, we (as in the UK) are already involved in trade talks with a number of nations.
Please try to understand the difference between talks and signing trade deals, which under EU rules we cannot do.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

In fairness, I think the UK has a different version of WWII history books!

There's some very authoritive books on the subject. If one takes the trouble to seek them out. The reality is literally just over the Channel. Spend a few days there and you'll realise what a fine line is. Between success and failure.