Your GE 2017 predictions

Seabee42

2.0 to 3.9 % Conservative Lead

I wish I could be smug the conservative campaign was terrible. Brexit was going to be hard enough still see what comes post May.

mayonnaise

2.0 % or greater Labour Lead

Can I act smug, OP?
My prediction was a bit off, but I just feel like acting smug today.

kabayiri

mayonnaise wrote: »

Can I act smug, OP?
My prediction was a bit off, but I just feel like acting smug today.

You are now entitled to use the new official smugness term :

"As smug as a pollster."

kinger101

10.0 to 11.9 % Conservative Lead

mayonnaise wrote: »

Can I act smug, OP?
My prediction was a bit off, but I just feel like acting smug today.

No second prizes. If you want to be smug, you'll have to do it on a different thread. The rest of us, myself and yourself included, get the Theresa May Egg on Face badge.

Thrugelmir

8.0 to 9.9 % Conservative Lead

On Tuesday I was so disillusioned with all the campaigns. I took 5.3 to 1 for no overall majority at the bookies. Though didn't expect the SNP to implode. Also that the LibDems would also perform better with tactical voting.


:beer: on me.

padington

0 to 1.9 % Labour Lead

kinger101 wrote: »

Surely not more than 1997? I'd not get your hopes up. I think Labour voters often like wearing their heart on their sleeve. I've not got a single friend whom I know votes Tory make a political comment of facebook, but many of my Labour voting friends post political comments frequently.

Here are the figures for Blair’s three wins. He got a 36 per cent share of the vote in 2005 – much less than Corbyn. He received a 41 per cent of the vote – about the same as Corbyn – in 2001. And Blair’s landslide victory in 1997 was secured on 43 per cent of the vote, just two percentage points ahead of Corbyn.

kinger101

10.0 to 11.9 % Conservative Lead

padington wrote: »

Here are the figures for Blair’s three wins. He got a 36 per cent share of the vote in 2005 – much less than Corbyn. He received a 41 per cent of the vote – about the same as Corbyn – in 2001. And Blair’s landslide victory in 1997 was secured on 43 per cent of the vote, just two percentage points ahead of Corbyn.

Do you have the London figures at hand? In 1997, it was 49.5% Lab. Would be interesting to see how he did in the capital now Lib Dems are diminished.

kinger101

10.0 to 11.9 % Conservative Lead

ilovehouses wrote: »

You didn't participate in this poll and, if your bet had gone South you would never have mentioned it.

The definition of success bias.

He did actually. But I think you missed on whole point on odds-based betting. Betting on something doesn't necessarily mean you think the outcome is likely. Just that the price is good. You'd take 4/1 on a six sided dice rolling a two. OK, there's more uncertainty about the election, but you get my drift.

kinger101

10.0 to 11.9 % Conservative Lead

ilovehouses wrote: »

Fair enough. My point would be the same. How many people would take 4/1 on rolling a two and then show off about it after rolling a three instead.

I don't think the poster was showing off by the way but I thought it worth highlighting the obvious success bias at play.

I see what you mean. But I just took at has someone being happy to share their good news.