Your GE 2017 predictions

Kim_13

kabayiri wrote: »

I'm interested in this young vote.

I heard a comment on the radio that one forecast assumed 90% turnout in the young voter section.

That does seem an optimistic assessment.

I always thought younger voters chose principal over practicality. They are more likely to adopt the Green party than think about keeping a candidate out.

Is this true, and would it dilute the effect of their vote?

I certainly voted for what I wanted rather than tactically as a young voter.

This time I am voting tactically, as I don't want any of them!

I guess the effect will partially (if young voters in general do express a preference for a smaller party) depend on the constituency they are in. If they are in one of the areas where UKIP and the Greens are standing aside, will they not vote, spoil their ballot or vote the same as their parents?

Herzlos

0 to 1.9 % Conservative Lead

gardner1 wrote: »

heavy rain tomorrow so that will keep the students and young kids from voting

Isn't heavy rain more likely to put off the older voters than the younger ones?

Filo25

I will go for a Tory lead of around 7% nationally, but a significant increase in majority as Labour racks up more votes in safe seats while the Tories pick up a fair few seats in the North and Midlands due to picking up a lot of former UKIP voters.

davidwood123

8.0 to 9.9 % Conservative Lead

My prediction.

Hamish will get it wrong once again

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

6.0 to 7.9 % Conservative Lead

davidwood123 wrote: »

My prediction.

Hamish will get it wrong once again

I'm predicting a Tory win...

Pious_Scot

Amended below as highlighted in red to describe Hamish's worst nightmare, LOL:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I'm predicting a Tory win... in Scotland!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

6.0 to 7.9 % Conservative Lead

Pious_Scot wrote: »

Amended below as highlighted in red to describe Hamish's worst nightmare, LOL:

I'd be delighted to see a Tory govt in Scotland - just as soon as we've achieved Indy and rejoined the EU.;)

Pious_Scot

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I'd be delighted to see a Tory govt in Scotland - just as soon as we've achieved Indy and rejoined the EU.;)

Oh, so never then?
:cool:

michaels

0 to 1.9 % Conservative Lead

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Final Survation poll - fieldwork completed at 9pm tonight.

Tory lead drops to under 1%.

Whereas others have the Tory lead ranging from 4% to 10%.

Remarkable variations... Guess we'll find out who was right in 22 hours.

I think it is really interesting. Last time the polls were all too close together with matching percentages between companies even where the 3% confidenc einterval should have resulted in some pread. After the event it turned out that this had to an extent been intentional with one company even supressign publishing a poll which differed from the concensus but actually turned out to be more accurate. No doubt at that point it was felt by each company that it was safer to be as wrong as everyone else than to be the only company who got it wrong when everyone else got it right.

This time it looks like the opposite is true - given the spread of predictions then most companies will be wrong so it is considered safe to actually go with the raw data plus whatever adjustments make sense to each companies statiticians.

Filo25 wrote: »

I will go for a Tory lead of around 7% nationally, but a significant increase in majority as Labour racks up more votes in safe seats while the Tories pick up a fair few seats in the North and Midlands due to picking up a lot of former UKIP voters.

I disagree on the split, I think UGOV have it right, the tories will make vote gains in traditional labour seats but not enough to overturn labour majorities in all but a few - but they will lose support in targetted marginals especially in London where the brexit sentiment is against them and thus will actually do worse for a given percentage of overall vote share than they did in 2015.

Even in Scotland where it looked for a tiem as if they could be the default 'not the SNP/independence' party Labour have clawed back ground so it is no longer a simple choice for those who want to remove a sitting SNP MP.

wotsthat

3.0 to 5.9 % Conservative Lead

michaels wrote: »

I disagree on the split, I think UGOV have it right, the tories will make vote gains in traditional labour seats but not enough to overturn labour majorities in all but a few - but they will lose support in targetted marginals especially in London where the brexit sentiment is against them and thus will actually do worse for a given percentage of overall vote share than they did in 2015.

Even in Scotland where it looked for a tiem as if they could be the default 'not the SNP/independence' party Labour have clawed back ground so it is no longer a simple choice for those who want to remove a sitting SNP MP.

What happens in Scotland is so interesting because Labour have got to make gains to be in with a chance of getting into government.

I suspect the SNP are going to lose vote share but not as many seats as the lost votes will be split between Labour & Tories.