Your GE 2017 predictions

kabayiri

I'm interested in this young vote.

I heard a comment on the radio that one forecast assumed 90% turnout in the young voter section.

That does seem an optimistic assessment.

I always thought younger voters chose principal over practicality. They are more likely to adopt the Green party than think about keeping a candidate out.

Is this true, and would it dilute the effect of their vote?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

6.0 to 7.9 % Conservative Lead

kabayiri wrote: »

I'm interested in this young vote.

Everyone is.... Good article here.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/01/how-pollsters-deal-with-turnout-rates-is-key-to-tories-reduced-lead

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

6.0 to 7.9 % Conservative Lead

And another interesting article explaining why the polls may well be underestimating Tory support - but are just as likely to be over-estimating it this time around.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

kabayiri

It is indeed strange days here in my constituency.

It's a LibDem target, requiring a swing from the Tory voters.

So you can imagine the deluge of material coming through our doors. There were SEVEN different bits of paper this morning.

Thing is....I know a few people who you would describe as older shy Tories, and they really resent this intensive literature campaign.

If anything, it all goes straight in the bin, and increases their resolve. Not that they would tell you to your face.

padington

0 to 1.9 % Labour Lead

If I were a wavering-towards- Tory voter, I don't think I would stick my name to May's mast. Being responsible for taking school lunches of school children is a pretty heavy thing to be associated with.

Whilst the labour vote is galavnsised and chomping at the bit to vote.

I wouldn't count your Tory chickens. They look a bit manky.

Conrad

8.0 to 9.9 % Conservative Lead

I wont put a number on it as that is pure guess work. I'll go for a wishy washy prediction of moderately comfortable Tory majority.

spikyone

padington wrote: »

If I were a wavering-towards- Tory voter, I don't think I would stick my name to May's mast. Being responsible for taking school lunches of school children is a pretty heavy thing to be associated with.

Whilst the labour vote is galavnsised and chomping at the bit to vote.

I wouldn't count your Tory chickens. They look a bit manky.

They were only given universal free lunches a couple of years ago, ferchrissakes. I haven't read that part of the manifesto, but when I was a kid the poorest got free school lunches anyway. If they're proposing going back to that then no problem in my book; why should free lunches be given to kids whose parents earn over £100k/year? (FWIW that applies to some of my own family members - I'm pretty certain they couldn't care less whether their child's lunch is free when deciding where to put their X)

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

I think the Cons will scrape a win, but it will be messy and there will be some furious backroom conversations about how they managed to f-up so spectacularly. Remember the early campaign days of "Wales is turning Tory for the first time in decades!"?

Complacency, a manifesto that's mostly quite weak, failing to prepare for the inevitable criticism from other parties, and unnecessarily taking a step or two away from the centre ground. Corbyn's "free stuff for everyone, nationalise everything" manifesto is so far to the left that the Conservatives simply had no need to be as ruthless as they appear from some of their pledges.
And telling everyone you'll reduce human rights to allow suspected extremists or terrorists to be tackled - however much you agree with it - only gives the other parties another huge stick to beat you with. Doing that 24 hours before an election is bloody idiotic.

michaels

0 to 1.9 % Conservative Lead

padington wrote: »

If I were a wavering-towards- Tory voter, I don't think I would stick my name to May's mast. Being responsible for taking school lunches of school children is a pretty heavy thing to be associated with.

Whilst the labour vote is galavnsised and chomping at the bit to vote.

I wouldn't count your Tory chickens. They look a bit manky.

We are only going to vote because corbyn + farron + sturgeon is a possibility rather than because May and especially our local mp have enthused us.

I don't see why mainstream labour supporters are chomping to vote, Corbyn's policies are for the far left of his party not the majority and the tories are more one nation than scary free market radicals. The Tories mistake was thinking the opposition was so unlikely that they could tell the truth to the voters in the manifesto and get a mandate to be realistic.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

6.0 to 7.9 % Conservative Lead

michaels wrote: »

We are only going to vote because corbyn + farron + sturgeon is a possibility rather than because May and especially our local mp have enthused us.
.

A Corbyn/Farron/Sturgeon alliance via issue by issue supply and confidence votes would be an absolutely brilliant outcome for this election.

There's absolutely no chance of Corbyn getting a majority and therefore his more leftwards policy ideas through.

Sensible, centrist, compromise would be the order of the day.

Conrad

8.0 to 9.9 % Conservative Lead

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A

Sensible, centrist, compromise would be the order of the day.

People that have no passion for nor understanding of the huge benefits of Brexit would be an absolute disaster in terms of lost opportunity.


The Remain Lib Dums vote share is 8% - the majority of people want to get on with a successful Brexit journey, the last thing they want is a bunch of people in charge that relentlessly talk down our abilities and chances, that imply we are weak and at the beckon call of '27 other nations'