Your GE 2017 predictions

antrobus

wotsthat wrote: »

What happens in Scotland is so interesting because Labour have got to make gains to be in with a chance of getting into government.

I suspect the SNP are going to lose vote share but not as many seats as the lost votes will be split between Labour & Tories.

Electoral Calculus have a Scotland prediction, for what it's worth.:)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

kinger101

10.0 to 11.9 % Conservative Lead

Exit poll = 314 con, 266 lab, 14 LD, 34 SNP, 3 PC, 1 green.

Minority con government. Potential for labour led coalition with SNP/LD/SDLP

kinger101

10.0 to 11.9 % Conservative Lead

Is it too early to start a new prediction thread for the Sept 2017 general election?

michaels

0 to 1.9 % Conservative Lead

michaels wrote: »

I disagree on the split, I think UGOV have it right, the tories will make vote gains in traditional labour seats but not enough to overturn labour majorities in all but a few - but they will lose support in targetted marginals especially in London where the brexit sentiment is against them and thus will actually do worse for a given percentage of overall vote share than they did in 2015.

Even in Scotland where it looked for a tiem as if they could be the default 'not the SNP/independence' party Labour have clawed back ground so it is no longer a simple choice for those who want to remove a sitting SNP MP.

SNP can't be that low so does that mean Tories could be even lower?

Do Tories need at least 318 to form govt?

Castle

kinger101 wrote: »

Is it too early to start a new prediction thread for the Sept 2017 general election?

Tory/Lib Dem Coalition, (again)?

kinger101

10.0 to 11.9 % Conservative Lead

michaels wrote: »

SNP can't be that low so does that mean Tories could be even lower?

Do Tories need at least 318 to form govt?

I thought it was 650 (Seats) - say 4 (Sinn Fein) / 2 + 1

So 323. So if the 314 is correct, they'd need 9 DUP and a blank cheque to the orange men.

kinger101

10.0 to 11.9 % Conservative Lead

Castle wrote: »

Tory/Lib Dem Coalition, (again)?

I really don't think the Lib Dems will do it this time.

wotsthat

3.0 to 5.9 % Conservative Lead

kinger101 wrote: »

I really don't think the Lib Dems will do it this time.

They won't be able to help themselves. Moths to a flame.

People are going to be pretty angry if we're meant to be starting negotiations with the EU in a few days and the Tories force us into another election in September.

They'll bite the bullet too and promise another referendum on Brexit terms.

padington

0 to 1.9 % Labour Lead

Looks like the majority of numpties on this thread got it well wrong. :beer:

IveSeenTheLight

kinger101 wrote: »

Exit poll = 314 con, 266 lab, 14 LD, 34 SNP, 3 PC, 1 green.

Minority con government. Potential for labour led coalition with SNP/LD/SDLP

I can't see there being a 4 way coalition.
If anything, it would be a minority government