the snap general election thread

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

No way will core nations such as Holland and Germany (which fund the EU) vote to harm their UK sales and the jobs they generate. .

As per usual you entirely miss the point.

'Core Nations' have to now choose between short term selfish benefit (maximising trade with the mature UK market) and long term gain (continuing to develop the much larger long term opportunity with the growth markets of newer EU nations).

Most of the EU's budget is invested in modernising infrastructure across the parts of Europe that need it, specifically to accelerate their economic growth, and create larger & more prosperous markets for mutual trading benefit in the future.

The real threat to European prosperity is not losing a few percent of it's trade with the UK in the short term, it's allowing a Brexit outcome that threatens the stability of the EU project, and thus the ongoing work developing far larger parts of the EU into nations and markets that will deliver far greater long term gain for European businesses and prosperity than the UK will.

And that's why Matthias Wissmann, the head of the German auto industry group, recently said...

"The UK is an important market for us but the EU market is much more important. If the EU were to fall apart, that would be a lot worse for our industry."

German industry will absolutely accept short term disruption from Brexit if it strengthens the EU project for the long term.

And if you don't see that you've rather badly misread the situation.

chucknorris

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As per usual you entirely miss the point.

'Core Nations' have to now choose between short term selfish benefit (maximising trade with the mature UK market) and long term gain (continuing to develop the much larger long term opportunity with the growth markets of newer EU nations).

Most of the EU's budget is invested in modernising infrastructure across the parts of Europe that need it, specifically to accelerate their economic growth, and create larger & more prosperous markets for mutual trading benefit in the future.

The real threat to European prosperity is not losing a few percent of it's trade with the UK in the short term, it's allowing a Brexit outcome that threatens the stability of the EU project, and thus the ongoing work developing far larger parts of the EU into nations and markets that will deliver far greater long term gain for European businesses and prosperity than the UK will.

And that's why Matthias Wissmann, the head of the German auto industry group, recently said...

I agree with your take on this Hamish, there is going to be damage, I'm just hoping that it isn't too bad, but we won't know until we are in it.

ThinkingOutLoud_2

Damage will take some form.

But a mildly positive brexit for both sides is not mutually exclusive IMHO.

U.K. Is still worth £60Bn net a year in trade in the EUs favour. Why give that up out of spite?

Even a divorce bill of 100 Bn would be trounced over a few years of trade.

Also I cannot imagine we will sign up to a Brexit with freedom of access and nothing else but a heavy divorce bill. It can be negotiated first but only when the whole deal is on the table is the deal done.

Fella

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The real threat to European prosperity is not losing a few percent of it's trade with the UK in the short term, it's allowing a Brexit outcome that threatens the stability of the EU project

Essentially what you're saying is that the EU must punish the UK & be seen to do so, to prevent other countries leaving.

(I don't disagree they may see it that way).

However, that's the very reason people like me & many others wanted to leave. And completely gives the lie to the much-peddled line that the EU was warm & cuddly, inclusive initiative & leaving was some kind of racism.

IMO the way you describe them (& again, I'm not necessarily saying your incorrect) is more like an abusive partner who's missus is scared to leave him in case he beats her up. Not the kind of institution I want to be part of.

gfplux

It appears I am not the only one posting in the wrong thread. This one is about the snap General Election.
There is a thread specifically about the EU.

Herzlos

Fella wrote: »

Essentially what you're saying is that the EU must punish the UK & be seen to do so, to prevent other countries leaving.

No. He's saying that when any decisions are made, health of the EU will come before trade with the UK.

They aren't going to set back EU wide growth for years to keep the UKs money. Companies aren't going to throw away future growth to keep 3% of their sales (which might drop in the future anyway if we run out of money).

They don't need to (and shouldn't) care about what the impacts are for us, beyond the consequences for them.

Herzlos

ThinkingOutLoud wrote: »

Hmm ...

If it were easy to put up the price - then I imagine the manufacturers want to increase profit and so would do so.

The margins on new cars aren't as huge as you might think. It is after all hugely competitive marketplace.

True, but there are all sorts of factors at play. Special tooling for RHD models will get comparatively more expensive as we buy less cars. That means they'll likely need to either drop models from the RHD lineup or put up the prices.

Some cars will struggle with sales if you put the price up (mid range 3/5 series, for instance) because it'll either push people down the range or into another brand. Entry level and high end stuff will probably be OK, no-one is buying a poverty spec 118i for anything other than the badge or it's price (because there's better in class for less). The exception might be it's low leasing price due to depreciation, but I don't think adding £600 to the list price will make a difference there.
Same for the M series stuff. Will many people who want one be put off if it costs an extra £1k?

Arklight

The UK consumer already has 25% less in his pocket thanks to Brexit so the market for export to the UK has shrunk.


If I were a BMW business strategist I would probably surmise that a country that can't pay its nurses enough to stop them having to turn to charity to eat, and that has just voted to leave the world's biggest economic zone based on some mass delusional village mentality, probably isn't going to be a cash cow.


Anyway, all this is moot. The opening negotiations have already seen Theresa May completely roll over.


Hard Brexit won't happen so the Kippers will just have to explode with anger for all the world cares.

Thrugelmir

Chrysalis wrote: »

They may not be around when the long term consequences of brexit hit, they may not be around as the affect of under investment in public services takes affect more and more, they probably just excited to see what will happen with brexit and of course the ego with thinking we are some kind of super power as well as their support for keeping trident as well.

What's the financial correlation between Brexit and investment in public sector services?

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What's the financial correlation between Brexit and investment in public sector services?

Money, I'd assume. If our economy shrinks or our costs go up because of Brexit then we're going to get even more austerity.

If we manage to chase away a large percentage of public sector service workers, then we're either going to have staff shortages or cost increases.