the snap general election thread

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

Several core EU nations do high trade volumes with the UK upon which 5 million citizens depend.

When Cleggy or some other remoaner stated that 2 or 3 million UK jobs depend on trade with the UK he was laughed away by the usual suspects on here.
But 5 million jobs in the EU depend on UK trade.
Yep, very plausible Conrad. As always.

ThinkingOutLoud_2

ilovehouses wrote: »

I won't be doing the sums again because I'm happy with my assumption that, in return for DUP support, eye watering sums of new money will be changing hands.

I think the government is spending too much money.

However, when money is spent I'd prefer it be done after assessing needs and priorities rather than for reasons of political expediency.

Maybe the Tory faithful could make personal contributions rather than socialising the costs.

Don't necessarily disagree with your second point.

There is supposedly specific allocations to specific projects so you can form a view of those. You might even think some are worthwhile...

But not actually using the right numbers just leaves you irked about the wrong thing. 1Bn is new money apparently. 0.5Bn is already allocated / existing provision.

gfplux

mayonnaise wrote: »

When Cleggy or some other remoaner stated that 2 or 3 million UK jobs depend on trade with the UK he was laughed away by the usual suspects on here.
But 5 million jobs in the EU depend on UK trade.
Yep, very plausible Conrad. As always.

All the numbers are huge but also guesses.
Just like the value of trade and profit it will cost Company's who trade with Britain.
While I might consider Brexit a car crash for Britain, the analogy is completely wrong. A car crash happens in seconds.
"Brexit" as a business (PROFIT) threat is already 12 months old. By the time we reach March 2019 the "Brexit PROFIT threat" will be nearly three years old.
Any shareholder will be entitled to ask "you have had long enough to mitigate this threat why is my dividend reduced" in fact any CEO and the board will already have take action to mitigate any threat to profits and by 2019 would be expected to be reporting only slight turbulence due to sales to Britain being harmed.
While no CEO wants to be ordering a change of course this complex and difficult they are taking action as they have no choice.
They and the board will not keep their jobs if they fall at the fence called "Brexit PROFIT threat"
Those in business will know this to be true. Those who rely on the underlying funds of their present or future pensions that are invested in the large European Company's will not except reduced profits.

So all this talk of Company's trembling at the thought of the "Brexit profit threat" leaning heavily on their political connections to cut a good deal for their sector is just talk.
The real work is in the contingency plans being implemented NOW.

That's how business works.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

In raw numbers yes, in percentages, no. Across Europe in general they'll barely notice the loss of our sales.

A million cars......... hardly noticed. That's a strange perception. Easy to be dismissive until it's your livelihood.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

A million cars......... hardly noticed. That's a strange perception. Easy to be dismissive until it's your livelihood.

Without going into details my livelihood is probably more on the line than yours.

The article I'm referencing (and being used to explain how the EU will cave to us) is saying that they predict Brexit will result in a 20% drop in UK purchases of German cars.

Currently the UK is responsible for about 15% of car sales ($3bn) So we're talking about a drop in Germanys car sales of 3% ($700m).

They can offset that easily enough by adding 3% to the cost of the other cars, which are most likely still going to have the price hidden by PCPs.

Will a threat to take away 3% of the German car industry allow us to get our own way, when sales to the far east are going through the roof?

The numbers just don't show us having the upper hand here in any capacity beyond sheer pigheaded optimism.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Without going into details my livelihood is probably more on the line than yours.

The article I'm referencing (and being used to explain how the EU will cave to us) is saying that they predict Brexit will result in a 20% drop in UK purchases of German cars.

Currently the UK is responsible for about 15% of car sales ($3bn) So we're talking about a drop in Germanys car sales of 3% ($700m).

They can offset that easily enough by adding 3% to the cost of the other cars, which are most likely still going to have the price hidden by PCPs.

Will a threat to take away 3% of the German car industry allow us to get our own way, when sales to the far east are going through the roof?

The numbers just don't show us having the upper hand here in any capacity beyond sheer pigheaded optimism.

I was merely making the point that there's no simplistic answer. Where it hits. The damage will be severe. As there'll be knock on effects in the local regional economy, and further down the supply chain. On both sides of the Channel.

You cannot replace lost revenue by simply increasing the selling price. Running a business is far more complex than that.

ukcarper

Rinoa wrote: »

£1Bn to save the country from a marxist, terror sympathizing government?

Worth every penny.

ilovehouses wrote: »

She could've done that for free by not calling an election.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

But that's not what happened. She did call one and we are where we are now.

So what would you rather?

£1.5bn for N.Ireland via the DUP confidence and supply deal, or a "progressive" "alliance", which is neither progressive nor allied in any way, that would be a chaotic shambolic Marxist insurgency.

She could save it by forming a minority government and getting on with it without DUP it's not as if they would vote with Corbyn.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I was merely making the point that there's no simplistic answer. Where it hits. The damage will be severe. As there'll be knock on effects in the local regional economy, and further down the supply chain. On both sides of the Channel.

Indeed it's not simple and there will be knock on effects all over the place, but the finger of blame will be pointed squarely at us for causing the mess, and not with the EU for not giving us what we want.

I'm mostly trying to point out that the sway we have over the German car industry is nothing like as big as some people believe it to be.

You cannot replace lost revenue by simply increasing the selling price. Running a business is far more complex than that.

If the price is elastic enough, then you sort of can. People already pay significant premiums for them, so there's presumably some stretch in the price.

You're right though, that's an overly simplistic statement too.

ThinkingOutLoud_2

Herzlos wrote: »

...
If the price is elastic enough, then you sort of can. People already pay significant premiums for them, so there's presumably some stretch in the price.

You're right though, that's an overly simplistic statement too.

Hmm ...

If it were easy to put up the price - then I imagine the manufacturers want to increase profit and so would do so.

The margins on new cars aren't as huge as you might think. It is after all hugely competitive marketplace.

Chrysalis

Herzlos wrote: »

Without going into details my livelihood is probably more on the line than yours.

The article I'm referencing (and being used to explain how the EU will cave to us) is saying that they predict Brexit will result in a 20% drop in UK purchases of German cars.

Currently the UK is responsible for about 15% of car sales ($3bn) So we're talking about a drop in Germanys car sales of 3% ($700m).

They can offset that easily enough by adding 3% to the cost of the other cars, which are most likely still going to have the price hidden by PCPs.

Will a threat to take away 3% of the German car industry allow us to get our own way, when sales to the far east are going through the roof?

The numbers just don't show us having the upper hand here in any capacity beyond sheer pigheaded optimism.

I think most people who voted for brexit dont care.

The majority of people supporting us leaving the EU as well as the majority of people who votes tories in the last election are older people.

They may not be around when the long term consequences of brexit hit, they may not be around as the affect of under investment in public services takes affect more and more, they probably just excited to see what will happen with brexit and of course the ego with thinking we are some kind of super power as well as their support for keeping trident as well.

It is all very worrying but we in for the ride now so have to see what happens.