the snap general election thread

Aberdeenangarse

ilovehouses wrote: »

Only one of us seems to be screaming and shouting.

Yes, please stop.

bobbymotors

^^^^^^

Correct.

In any deal making you give nothing away without something in return.

And there WILL be a deal.

Because they sell us more than we sell thm, meaning that tariffs / duties will hurt them more than they hurt us.

It's simple maths...lots of bluster and posturing to com, but the maths is on our side.

Herzlos

bobbymotors wrote: »

Because they sell us more than we sell thm, meaning that tariffs / duties will hurt them more than they hurt us.

In raw numbers yes, in percentages, no. Across Europe in general they'll barely notice the loss of our sales.

Conrad

Glastonbury, the most bourgeois event in the world cheering on a Marxist. The irony is delicious...

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

In raw numbers yes, in percentages, no. Across Europe in general they'll barely notice the loss of our sales.

Several core EU nations do high trade volumes with the UK upon which 5 million citizens depend. The fact Romania sells us b%%gger all is neither here nor there.


As I always ask, how will several hundred thousand Dutch feel about Brussels deliberately harming their sales with barriers?

German car industry worried about a no deal WTO SCENARIO


The hit to German carmakers from a “no-deal”, so-called “hard Brexit”, characterised by the introduction of WTO tariffs on imports, could be as catastrophic as the impact of the financial crisis and lead to a massive reduction in its trade surplus and huge, politically traumatic job cuts in its core industry.


That, at least, is the message from a devastating study published by Deloitte’s German unit


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/22/europe-waking-impact-hard-brexit/

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Scream and shout about DUP as much as you like, they're not front bench, they're not ministers, their input is limited.

They're not front bench but their power is huge, since we know that the Tories will throw money at them and they are presumably happy to threaten to pull their votes.

They can be ignored when another party votes with the Tories though. How you think the DUP are better than Corbyn is beyond me.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Several core EU nations do high trade volumes with the UK upon which 5 million citizens depend. The fact Romania sells us b%%gger all is neither here nor there.


As I always ask, how will several hundred thousand Dutch feel about Brussels deliberately harming their sales with barriers?

I thought you made a big deal about how the EU just steamrolled everyone? So they can only be swayed by a small group when it suits you?

Sure, there will be losses on both sides, but they'll consider the bigger picture.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

They're not front bench but their power is huge, since we know that the Tories will throw money at them and they are presumably happy to threaten to pull their votes.

They can be ignored when another party votes with the Tories though. How you think the DUP are better than Corbyn is beyond me.

Corbyn would have thrown far more money around at his coalition of chaos partners, and borrowed vastly more putting us in a far more precarious position WHEN the next big crash comes along (see yesterdays news on impending global crash potential)

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

I thought you made a big deal about how the EU just steamrolled everyone? So they can only be swayed by a small group when it suits you?

Sure, there will be losses on both sides, but they'll consider the bigger picture.

No way will core nations such as Holland and Germany (which fund the EU) vote to harm their UK sales and the jobs they generate.


Remainers all share this view we have little / no leverage, hence why it is right not to have Remainers at the negotiating table.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

In raw numbers yes, in percentages, no. Across Europe in general they'll barely notice the loss of our sales.

Not so.

I've outlined this a few times.

The UK is a major trading partner, a MAJOR trading partner of the net contributing nations of the EU.

A downturn in their GDP equals a reduction in the EU budget which affects the investment members such as Romania receive from the EU budget. They are all intertwined and slow to react.

You can look on tradingeconomics.com to check my facts if you wish but I assure you the above is the case, look at the list of the net contributor nations and then check where the UK ranks in terms of their export destination and you'll find we're in the top 5 of almost all of them. Plus, during a downturn it's beneficial to have access to money markets, so cutting off London isn't going to be good for the EU either.

The arguments for the EU in this scenario are far too simplistic which to me means that those who claim the EU will suffer very little just haven't done the research. In the event of a no deal scenario, or a bad deal scenario, both the UK and the EU will hurt. One will be nimble enough to quickly react to the situation and the other not. A good deal is in everyone's best interests.

Edit: I dug out the post I made on the subject

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72336386&postcount=18124

And here are the contributors and recipients:



Losing the UK's contribution will hurt, losing further contributions due to a harsh trading climate will exacerbate that problem for the EU nations that you and others claim fear nothing from losing UK trade.

It's just not that simple.