the snap general election thread

antrobus

antrobus wrote: »

As far as I can see (OK I took the figures off UKpollingreport), the final polls have the following results;

BMG - CON 46%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%.
ICM - CON 46%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 5%
ComRes - CON 44%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5%
Panelbase - CON 44%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 5%, GRN 2%
Ipsos MORI - CON 44%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%
YouGov - CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%, GRN 2%
Opinium - CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%
Kantar - CON 43%, LAB 38%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%
Surveymonkey - CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 4%
Survation - CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 2%, GRN 2%
..

Since the actual result was;

CON 42.4%, LAB 40.0%, LD 7.4%, SNP 3.0%, UKIP 1.8%, GRN 1.6%

the winner would have to be Survation. They will be having a party tonight. They slightly underestimated CON support, but otherwise pretty much bang on. Not bad for an old fashioned telephone poll.:)

The obvious point would be that, having underestimated CON support in 2015, most of the pollsters seem to have overcorrected and ended up underestimating LAB support in 2017. Perhaps we can look forward to another 'investigation' into what went wrong.

And most of the polls got UKIP wrong. There is a difference between 5% and 1.8%. Only Survation got that one right.

antrobus

And the exit poll;

CON 314, LAB 266, SNP 34, LD 14, PC 3, GRN 1, Other 18

was pretty much on the money as well compared to,

CON 318, LAB 261, SNP 35, LD 10, PC 4, GRN 1, Other 18

(One seat left to declare, of course)

The exit poll is almost always right. Which is why you can do as I do, and go to bed after it's been announced, safe in the knowledge of what the result is going to be.

Joe_Horner

ThinkingOutLoud wrote: »

There is irony - but I think both Sinn Fein and DUP as now are what came out of a peace process.
Neither are perfect - but when you see how Paisley and McGuinness reconciled and even got on - you could try to move on in their regard as well.
The past should not be forgotten - but we don't hold every German we meet as responsible for Hitler.
Otherwise, there would be no peace or GFA.

Oh I totally agree, it's the tabliod headline writers who need convincing

michaels

antrobus wrote: »

And the exit poll;

CON 314, LAB 266, SNP 34, LD 14, PC 3, GRN 1, Other 18

was pretty much on the money as well compared to,

CON 318, LAB 261, SNP 35, LD 10, PC 4, GRN 1, Other 18

(One seat left to declare, of course)

The exit poll is almost always right. Which is why you can do as I do, and go to bed after it's been announced, safe in the knowledge of what the result is going to be.

Except in 2015 wasn't the exit poll for a hung parliament and the final result a Tory majority?

This time with the extra Sinn Fein seats the Tories probably only needed 321 for a numerical majority so the 314 call could easily actually still have resulted in this...although of course there would be no point staying up for such an outcome as with margins that thin the outcome would not have been known till the morning anyway.

Joe_Horner

Rinoa wrote: »

Who knows. If JC hadn't backed the terrorists he may well have been PM.

You are aware just who the DUP are, aren't you???

Thrugelmir

Rinoa wrote: »

The EU negotiators have probably just opened a bottle of champagne. They'll walk all over us.

Probably hacked off that our £ is even more competitive and will buy fewer Euros when people go holidaying.

agarnett

CKhalvashi wrote: »

In fairness, likely not.

Also in fairness, Labour haven't just partnered with an organisation with terrorists links to Proscribed Organisations in the United Kingdom under the Terrorism Act 2000.

Hold on ... where'd you get that picture? It's been maliciously Photoshopped by adding the DUP logo and a morphed picture of Arlene Foster as deliberate rabble-rousing anti-DUP propaganda surely?

The original mural on Boundary Way, Belfast and I am not at all sure that any of that mural still exists anyway?

hallmark

CKhalvashi wrote: »

I pledge to make the Conservatives lives as difficult as possible.

Haha, wow how will they sleep at night. Your angry posts on a few bulletin boards will cause them so many problems.

Meanwhile Corbyn gloriously kept out of power with nothing to do but fume from the sidelines & continue the destruction of the Labour Party. I wonder if they'll have anybody even vaguely moderate still there by 2022 :rotfl::rotfl:

kabayiri

Rinoa wrote: »

...
The EU negotiators have probably just opened a bottle of champagne. They'll walk all over us.

Nah.

May is cleverly luring them into a false sense of security.

They will spend months agreeing the money and citizens stuff, and then start bickering over trade.

One week before A50 completes, May will call another snap election.

She's the queen of them, dontcha know.

But, tbh, they have politicians too. If the nitty gritty gets tough, expect bickering between the Poles and the Germans and the Italians and the Irish and ....

They won't be able to keep the discussions under wraps. They have Juncker on their side, and is mouth is as loose as can be.

theEnd

michaels wrote: »

Except in 2015 wasn't the exit poll for a hung parliament and the final result a Tory majority?

I think the exit poll in 2015 was for a Tory win. I remember it being a shock at the time.