the snap general election thread

vivatifosi

There was an article about that question on Sky News yesterday, gfplux.

They said that some were former Tories and some were previously Labour. They also made the point that the UKIP vote was likely to go down. Plus they said that Labour voters, when switching allegiances, tend not to go straight to the Tories, instead going through another party first. However many of those Labour voters that switched to UKIP because they have already crossed the ideological barrier of leaving Labour, would now vote Tory instead, as they will deliver benefit.

There were of course also Tories that switched to UKIP.

vivatifosi

The polls on Sky yesterday also showed a huge swing to the Tories in Wales, with their regaining more seats that at any time since before the Labour movement.

kabayiri

vivatifosi wrote: »

There was an article about that question on Sky News yesterday, gfplux.

They said that some were former Tories and some were previously Labour. They also made the point that the UKIP vote was likely to go down. Plus they said that Labour voters, when switching allegiances, tend not to go straight to the Tories, instead going through another party first. However many of those Labour voters that switched to UKIP because they have already crossed the ideological barrier of leaving Labour, would now vote Tory instead, as they will deliver benefit.

There were of course also Tories that switched to UKIP.

Portillo has mentioned more than once how working class Labour voters are also quite right of centre when it comes to certain issues , defence being one of them.

Corbyn seems uncomfortable with some aspects of traditional Labour voters. I can't see him bending somehow.

Out,_Vile_Jelly

kabayiri wrote: »

Portillo has mentioned more than once how working class Labour voters are also quite right of centre when it comes to certain issues , defence being one of them.

Corbyn seems uncomfortable with some aspects of traditional Labour voters. I can't see him bending somehow.

I really think traditional right vs left ideas are becoming more outdated by the day. Plenty of otherwise lefty folk oppose abortion. Plenty of otherwise rightwing types support gay marriage. The other classic working class trait that the sneering Guardianistas despair of is their unwavering loyalty to the monarchy. Modern society is more complex than the old two party system can easily accommodate.

Filo25

A lot of the problem for Labour's own vote is apparently not just losing voters to other parties but also a lot of former Labour voters saying they either aren't sure who they will vote for or they aren't sure if they will vote at all.

I suppose the one "upside" for Labour at present is that if the polls keep looking this bad as we move into the campaign, it will slightly weaken the effective Tory attacks that people need to vote for the Tories to stop Corbyn becoming PM. It's going to become pretty obvious to at least some of the voting public that Corbyn isn't going to become PM whoever they personally vote for.

So even though the Tories may well pick up a bit more UKIP support, maybe the race will tighten slightly, still going to be a big Tory majority though, unless something massively unexpected happens during the campaign

antrobus

Filo25 wrote: »

... It's going to become pretty obvious to at least some of the voting public that Corbyn isn't going to become PM whoever they personally vote for....

According to Polly Toynbee, someone has already thought of that one;:)

Labour canvassers are reassuring voters there’s not a snowball’s hope in hell that Corbyn could ever be prime minister, so it’s safe to vote for well-liked local Labour MPs. Every Labour seat needs saving in any way possible...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/26/labour-sandbags-survive-yory-tidal-wave-tactical-voting-progressive-alliances

I don't know how that will play out in practice, voters might well wonder what !!!!!! is going on.

WengerIn

antrobus wrote: »

According to Polly Toynbee, someone has already thought of that one;:)

Labour canvassers are reassuring voters there’s not a snowball’s hope in hell that Corbyn could ever be prime minister, so it’s safe to vote for well-liked local Labour MPs. Every Labour seat needs saving in any way possible...

I don't know how that will play out in practice, voters might well wonder what !!!!!! is going on.

Are there many well liked local MPs? I've never even mt my MP to know if I like him.

kabayiri

antrobus wrote: »

According to Polly Toynbee, someone has already thought of that one;:)

Labour canvassers are reassuring voters there’s not a snowball’s hope in hell that Corbyn could ever be prime minister, so it’s safe to vote for well-liked local Labour MPs. Every Labour seat needs saving in any way possible...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/26/labour-sandbags-survive-yory-tidal-wave-tactical-voting-progressive-alliances

I don't know how that will play out in practice, voters might well wonder what !!!!!! is going on.

:rotfl:

!!!!!!? WWF more like !

I can see posters going up showing Labour MPs on the endangered species list, with a background showing evil Tories with their hunting groups and shotguns !

What's the tag line?

"Every decade, tens of innocent Labour MPs are vanquished. Just 3 votes a decade will be enough for you to save them.

Please.....X generously"

Filo25

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 49 (+6)
LAB: 26% (-4)
LDEM: 13% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 1% (-3)

(via Ipsos Mori / 21 - 25 Apr)

I think this one is one of the few phone polls we have but it seems to be pretty similar to the online ones, Survation looking like the only outlier at present.

WengerIn

Filo25 wrote: »

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 49 (+6)
LAB: 26% (-4)
LDEM: 13% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 1% (-3)

(via Ipsos Mori / 21 - 25 Apr)

Those are some big changes. Well over the MoE. Ipsos Mori asked about who would be the best PM.

Theresa May’s lead on who would make the most capable Prime Minister is now 61% to Corbyn’s 23%, the highest MORI have recorded since they began asking the question in 1979 (Thatcher hit 48% against Foot, Blair 52% against Hague).

Panelbase have their first poll out:

CON 49%
LAB 27%
LD 10%
UKIP 5%

No earlier figures provided.