the snap general election thread

A_Medium_Size_Jock

kabayiri wrote: »

They all looked exposed IMO.

I thought Sadiq Khan sounded unsure as well.

It doesn't take a genius to work out when a politician is saying the same things after the Westminster bridge attack; after the Manchester attack; after the London Bridge attack...you start to glaze over and assume they are going through the motions.

I think May was trying to inject some freshness into her voice. She has no new answers though.

And therein lies the crux of the matter IMHO.
How on earth can anyone devise a more foolproof plan against the indefensible?

It is all but impossible to prevent a loner or even a small group hell-bent upon causing death and destruction - the latest in London for example wasn't exactly sophisticated, was it?
"Let's aim the car at some people and then run about stabbing them" even with the use of fake bomb vests; how do you think it's possible to guard against the possibility of that? Especially when those deciding to perform such an atrocity fully expect to die.

That the police managed to contain the risk within eight minutes is in fact quite remarkable and I'm struggling to see how that could reasonably be expected to be improved-upon.

For those suggesting that warning calls to the police/MI5 go unheeded and more should be done - how please, without a change in the law?
Last year (2016) 22,000 people phoned the anti-terrorist hotline. Think about how you might efficiently handle following up that number of investigations without impinging upon someone's rights; as I say, IMHO the law needs changing.
And be honest, that's not going to be an easy one to manage.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

CKhalvashi wrote: »

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

Cons down another 3 seats, Labour up 7 on pre-attack numbers.

The opposition 5 have now found the 10 seats required for a majority, so this is now even more interesting.

Eh?
The YouGov poll taken on May 30/31st says:


According to that Labour are down 1% today then.
And the [STRIKE]poll[/STRIKE] prediction you link to is the same as yesterdays YouGov/Times poll.

What you suggest is a possibility ................. but try to contain your excitement until after the only vote that counts, eh?
Because IMHO your possibility may well amount to nothing.

Filo25

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Eh?
The YouGov poll taken on May 30/31st says:


According to that Labour are down 1% today then.
And the poll you link to is the same as yesterdays YouGov/Times poll.

What you suggest is a possibility ................. but try to contain your excitement until after the only vote that counts, eh?
Because IMHO your possibility may well amount to nothing.

The Yougov daily prediction model is separate from their polling.

bobbymotors

CKhalvashi wrote: »

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

Cons down another 3 seats, Labour up 7 on pre-attack numbers.

The opposition 5 have now found the 10 seats required for a majority, so this is now even more interesting.

Take a chance. Have a charity bet.

£5 of mine to £1 of yours, conservative overall majority.

how lucky do you feel?

Arklight

ukcarper wrote: »

I could possibly be effect by changes to care but that would not put me off voting Tory, which I won't be doing for other reasons. But as a long time Labour voter I won't be voting Labour I don't like his stance on trident and the supposedly costed give away he is planning, to much of it is not targeted at the people who need it and is a waste.

Thanks for your support.

I hope that when old people are scared to go to the doctor in case their house is taken away, the NHS is a memory sold off to the Americans, half the country is fracked, the schools funding crisis turns kids away at the gate, disabled people are on the streets due to bedroom tax, nurses get another 14% pay cut, the Tories add another half a trillion to our national debt, young people pay even more for their education and the housing crisis worsens, and everyone is on zero hours contracts, you remember your protest against... Trident.

:wall:

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Filo25 wrote: »

The Yougov daily prediction model is separate from their polling.

Understood.
Is it though any more accurate?

CKhalvashi

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Eh?
The YouGov poll taken on May 30/31st says:


According to that Labour are down 1% today then.
And the poll you link to is the same as yesterdays YouGov/Times poll.

What you suggest is a possibility ................. but try to contain your excitement until after the only vote that counts, eh?
Because IMHO your possibility may well amount to nothing.

I'm using the numbers broken down by constituency, which I feel are a bit too pro-Conservative in some places (although not necessarily where I live) anyway.

Anything is a possibility at the moment, and I'm not necessarily overexcited. I did, however, raise the numbers there as a possibility, and that's following on from a post I made the other night, where I said that the same 5 parties (Labour, SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid and Green) only have 10 seats to find based on the numbers there.

I really need to get back to the pile of paperwork that's currently at the stage I didn't know where to start, so will check any response in a few hours when I take another 10 minute break

ThinkingOutLoud_2

Seabee42 wrote: »

There is no doubt in my opinion the Tories have done many things wrong (Tax cutting for the rich whilst at least saying your reducing government spending) but actually a policy changing a sex discrimination policy is not one of them.

I think the majority of objection is not that equality has been pursued but the notice period with which women of a "certain age" can prepare of this.

Of course, there are many tax and other changes which a government may impose without any or much notice that have equal £ impact.

Filo25

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Understood.
Is it though any more accurate?

My suspicion is both Yougov's polling and the model is optimistic for Labour, but that is purely gut feel on my part!

If I was guessing I would guess Tories are maybe 8 points up, hard to take much from the poling when it is a bit all over the place, differential turnout between the age groups seems to be the big variable, I suspect we will see somewhat increased youth turnout, but not nearly to the level you are seeing in the Survation numbers at the weekend.

bobbymotors

Arklight wrote: »

Thanks for your support.

I hope that when old people are scared to go to the doctor in case their house is taken away, the NHS is a memory sold off to the Americans, half the country is fracked, the schools funding crisis turns kids away at the gate, disabled people are on the streets due to bedroom tax, nurses get another 14% pay cut, the Tories add another half a trillion to our national debt, young people pay even more for their education and the housing crisis worsens, and everyone is on zero hours contracts, you remember your protest against... Trident.

:wall:

Except that the question the left can never answer is 'where's the money for all this going to come from?'

people get excited when you offer them something for nothing: but it can't be done.