the snap general election thread

davomcdave

Filo25 wrote: »

here have been growing rumours recently that Labour are in big trouble in Wales, but even allowing for that those are hugely surprising numbers

Very surprising.

So does Labour now represent only London, and northern England? My feeling as someone that knows London quite well is that Londoners vote Labour because they feel that they earn so much more than the rest of the country that a few quid can go elsewhere.

Filo25

davomcdave wrote: »

Very surprising.

So does Labour now represent only London, and northern England? My feeling as someone that knows London quite well is that Londoners vote Labour because they feel that they earn so much more than the rest of the country that a few quid can go elsewhere.

London will be interesting this time around (for me anyway, as I live there!).

The Labour leadership's lukewarm support for the Remain cause won't do them any favours, although the local MPs are generally pretty vocal Remainers, those who aren't though could bleed significant support to the LibDems.

The advantage Labour do have down here though is that there were fewer UKIP voters to start with in most constituencies, and a lot of the growth in Tory support is coming from UKIP voters flipping to the Tories.

I wonder how the hinted at tax increases for those earning over £70k will play though, that's a good wage in London but not a fortune.

westernpromise

Having already lost Scotland, and now - we learn - Wales, I reckon Labour could be up for some shocks from London.

Filo25

westernpromise wrote: »

Having already lost Scotland, and now - we learn - Wales, I reckon Labour could be up for some shocks from London.

The most recent poll I could find for London was the earlier this month, movement compared to 2015 election is shown in brackets.

CON 34%(-1), LAB 37%(-7), LDEM 14%(+6), UKIP 9%(+1)

BobQ

michaels wrote: »

Before the polls got it wrong because of 'shy tories' and differential turnout.

It is possible that they are now adjusting to address these two issues but neither of them may exist anymore:

It is no longer uancceptable to admit to being a tory; and
As a tory you no longer feel you must vote as otherwise Labour will get in (Labour are even more scary than they were under Ed and Ed but the threat of them winning is so remote it won't scare any potential Tories into voting. (Similarly if you are terrified of Labourno longer have to vote tory rather than libdem to ensure labour won't get in.)

Maybe this is the era of the shy social democrat, who supports Mr Corbyn's policies but would never admit to voting for them?

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

London will be interesting this time around (for me anyway, as I live there!).

The Labour leadership's lukewarm support for the Remain cause won't do them any favours, although the local MPs are generally pretty vocal Remainers, those who aren't though could bleed significant support to the LibDems.

The advantage Labour do have down here though is that there were fewer UKIP voters to start with in most constituencies, and a lot of the growth in Tory support is coming from UKIP voters flipping to the Tories.

I wonder how the hinted at tax increases for those earning over £70k will play though, that's a good wage in London but not a fortune.

Isn't the make up of the electorate changing though. Affluence is far wider spread than even 10 15 years ago.

antrobus

Filo25 wrote: »

Truly awful numbers for Labour in Wales (they have had the highest share of the vote there since 1922 I believe)

Welsh Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (+12)
LAB: 30% (-3)
PC: 13% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 6% (-7)

(via YouGov) Chgs. w/ Jan

It is one of those !!!!!! moments.

The Conservatives did OK in Wales last time around (won three seats) but the Lab-Con share was still 37%-27%. If it flips around to 30%-40%, well crumbs, qualifying for the Euros and stuffing Russia 3-0 was pretty sensational, but Labour coming second in Wales?

Here's one academic who reckons it's down to ex-UKIP voters.
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/24/the-first-welsh-poll-of-the-general-election/

antrobus

davomcdave wrote: »

My take, mostly from reading the uk polling report website, is that polling errors were mostly due to not understanding that Tories were more likely to turn up to vote than Labourites....

Anthony Wells, who is responsible for UK polling report, seems to accept the conclusions of the BPC inquiry.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9662






Most polling companies have adjusted for that apart, I believe, from Survation. Survation shows the smallest Tory lead measuring it in the high teens.

My guess is that there will be two forces at play this election to make the polls wrong:

1. Shy Labour. Are you seriously going to admit you want Corbyn to be PM?
2. Not turning out Labour. I'm Labour I love, love, love them and would never vote anything else but Corbyn, seriously???

Labour constituencies already have the lowest turnout. At some point the turnout will get so low that someone else gets in and Labour stops being the official opposition. That's when politics gets interesting. I wonder how it was socially as Labour displaced the Liberal Party.[/QUOTE]

antrobus

BobQ wrote: »

Maybe this is the era of the shy social democrat, who supports Mr Corbyn's policies but would never admit to voting for them?

I suppose you can hope.:)

Although I'm not convinced that a modern social democrat would support Mr Corbyn's policies.

antrobus

Filo25 wrote: »

The most recent poll I could find for London was the earlier this month, movement compared to 2015 election is shown in brackets.

CON 34%(-1), LAB 37%(-7), LDEM 14%(+6), UKIP 9%(+1)

The 2015 London results can be found here.
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/general-election-results-2015

There was a swing to Labour in 2015; looks like it was voters dumping the Lib Dems for Labour - now they appear to be going back.