the snap general election thread

Filo25

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 50% (+4)
LAB: 25% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via ComRes)

BobQ

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-yougov-idUKKBN17O0NV

A You Gov Poll tonight shows similar figures although puts UKIP on 5%.

BobQ

On the other hand the Daily Mail takes a different tack based on a Survation Poll

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4436044/Tory-lead-slashed-half-tax-U-turn.html

Tories don to 40% Labour up to 29..........surely not......

wotsthat

Watch out. Brits love an enthusiastic, eccentric underdog.

EDIT: Unless tax concessions are secured.

gfplux

ess0two wrote: »

I can't fathom your intention? you don't live here as you admit,so why bother voting on something that doesn't affect or concern you?

You really don't understand the world.
Actions of the British Government effect directly ALL British citizens wherever they live.
Just because I don't live in Britain does not mean that I am unaffected or concerned.
That is why I am angry that I am about to lose the opportunity to vote.

gfplux

It is a general right for citizens of many Country's to retain the right to vote wherever they live.
From my personal knowledge the Citizens of FRANCE, ITALY, SPAIN and DENMARK retain the right WITHOUT LIMIT.
The Conservatives have promised to get rid of the 15 year limit for British Citizens living outside of Britain.
For your information.
During the first round of the French election taking place today there are 1.3million French citizens entitled to vote who live outside of France.

davomcdave

You Gov/Sunday Times:

CON 48%(nc)
LAB 25%(+1)
LDEM 12%(nc)
UKIP 5%(-2)

Survation/Sunday Post
SNP 43%(-7)
CON 28%(+13)
LAB 18%(-6)
LDEM 9%(+1)
Changes are versus the General Election.

Re the Survation poll for The Mail, AIUI Survation has some differences with the way it deals with DKs and the probability of people voting. That might make its polls more or less accurate. We'll see when the election is over in a few weeks. Even if the Tories' lead is 'only' 11% they are looking at a landslide.

In some respects Labour is lucky as the election is being fought on the old boundaries (I think, please let me know if I'm wrong).

chris_m

davomcdave wrote: »

In some respects Labour is lucky as the election is being fought on the old boundaries (I think, please let me know if I'm wrong).

Correct - the new boundaries still aren't due to come in until 2020. I think they are still under consultation atm.

antrobus

Yes, five new polls appeared today;

Mail on Sunday (Survation) 40%-29% Con lead 11%
Sunday Times (YouGov) 48%-25% Con lead 23%
Observer (Opinium) 45%-26% Con lead 19%
Sunday Mirror (ComRes) 50%-25% Con lead 25%
Sunday Express (Norstat) 42%-26% Con lead 16%

The Lib Dems are on 10%-12% and UKIP on 5%-11%, if anyone cares about them.

There is a suggestion that since Survation carried out its field work on Friday afternoon (later than all the others) it may have picked up a backlash against the suugestions that the Cons were going to drop their no tax rises promise. Although it is also worth noting that (a) Survation where the only people that go it right in 2015 and (b) they have a different methodology. Otherwise, you can pick whichever one suits you best.

There are also two Scottish polls

SNP LAB CON LD
Sunday Post (Survation) 43% 18% 28% 9%
Sunday Times (Panelbase) 44% 13% 33% 5%

For those unfamiliar with Scottish politics, the 2015 GE results were

SNP 50.0
LAB 24.3
CON 14.9
LD 7.5
UKIP 1.6
GRN 1.3

Which would suggest a drop in the SNP lead, a further collapse for Labour, and trebles all round for the Conservatives.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4436282/Could-return-bigger-majority-Blair.html
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9846

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

You really don't understand the world.
Actions of the British Government effect directly ALL British citizens wherever they live.
Just because I don't live in Britain does not mean that I am unaffected or concerned.
That is why I am angry that I am about to lose the opportunity to vote.

But those are the rules and you knew about them. There's no point blaming the UK government and being angry.

How long have you known that you will be affected by being overseas for so long? If it is that important, why didn't you build in coming back for a period of time and resetting the clock?

Looking at it from the British govt point of view, they have looked after you as a child, possibly paid for your education, but you've gone overseas and not paid any taxes for a number of years. Why should they continue to incur costs any more than they have to?