the snap general election thread

Wednesday2000

Filo25 wrote: »

I wonder how the hinted at tax increases for those earning over £70k will play though, that's a good wage in London but not a fortune.

Yes, exactly, I thought the same.

gfplux

I read there is some discussion by remainders of "Tactical" voting. I.e. Ignore the politics this time round and vote for the candidate who is against Brexit.
I saw the phrase
"An MP is only for five years but Brexit is forever"
Is there any truth or strength in this.

System

https://www.thecanary.co/2017/04/23/young-people-nasty-surprise-sleeves-theresa-may/

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

I read there is some discussion by remainders of "Tactical" voting. I.e. Ignore the politics this time round and vote for the candidate who is against Brexit.
I saw the phrase
"An MP is only for five years but Brexit is forever"
Is there any truth or strength in this.

Yes this is true, but it doesn't mean that it will all go Labour's way. For example, in Vauxhall, London, Kate Hoey, a Labour Brexit voter, may be unseated by the Lib Dems.

In other parts of the country, you have pro Remain Labour MPs in areas that voted leave. You also have MPs such as the Tory Anne Main in St Albans who voted leave in a remain seat.

Certainly some of these seats will change hands. But it is more nuanced than their all going one way. Also, what isn't known is the extent to which a staunch Labour or Tory supporter will vote along party lines and forgive their MP's transgressions.

One thing that is likely to happen is that Lib Dems will pick up some seats as they have been consistent and on message for remain. However they are coming back from being wiped out in the last election so probably not enough.

PixelPound

There is the 20/20 campaign targeting 20 seats that have brexit MP's in pro-remain constituencies with the aim of pushing tactical voting and also 20 constituencies that voted brexit but whose MP's didn't to defend them.
Of course this is still small in number and more token if Conservatives end up with a big majority.

PixelPound

Joeskeppi wrote: »

https://www.thecanary.co/2017/04/23/young-people-nasty-surprise-sleeves-theresa-may/

If this had happened for the Brexit vote, then the outcome may have been different since the low number of that age group who were registered and the low number of those registered who actually voted meant it was that age group that lost it (if you remember all the blaming of the older ages for not thinking of the young when voting Brexit). However not sure it will have the same effect now, since a lot of these registrations are in areas of higher amounts of younger people, e.g. University areas, that already vote Labour.

Spidernick

gfplux wrote: »

I read there is some discussion by remainders of "Tactical" voting. I.e. Ignore the politics this time round and vote for the candidate who is against Brexit.
I saw the phrase
"An MP is only for five years but Brexit is forever"
Is there any truth or strength in this.

Yes, it's that 'pesky' Gina Miller again (much loved by Leave voters ):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/gina-miller-best-for-britain-tactical-voting-against-hard-brexit

The group, called Best For Britain, will formally launch next week. It eventually aims to endorse a slate of candidates who back its preference for a “meaningful” vote by MPs at the end of the EU negotiation period.

System

There's no such thing as an "anti-Brexit MP". Times move on, and just because an MP might once have favoured Remain and perhaps tried to impede the Brexit process does not mean he is going to actually going to do anything after the election.
I think so-called tactical voting is more likely just to spread the fluffy vote around pointlessly and probably to the government's advantage.

Filo25

nic_c wrote: »

There is the 20/20 campaign targeting 20 seats that have brexit MP's in pro-remain constituencies with the aim of pushing tactical voting and also 20 constituencies that voted brexit but whose MP's didn't to defend them.
Of course this is still small in number and more token if Conservatives end up with a big majority.

I think IDS is one of them, and as someone who lives in that seat I can't see that campaign being successful, its borderline whether this constituency even voted Remain, there were quite a few UKIP voters here in 2015, most of whom IDS should be able to pick up pretty easily and he is already defending a large majority, most of the seat is natural Tory territory.

kabayiri

I think you can honestly say that some people voted to stick 2 fingers up at the current political status quo, in both the last GE and the EU referendum.

My question is....what fundamentally has changed since those 2 votes for these people?

The answer is not a lot really.

If they didn't believe Labour promises in 2015 then why should they believe them now?

I suspect the LibDems were over punished in the 2015 GE and will swing back. My seat could go back to LibDem.

I suspect also some UKIP voters will think the Tories have taken on their mantle and vote for them.

Outside of that, I can't see much change in the regions.