the snap general election thread

setmefree2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Different perception from this link today
[urlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39856354[/url]



It'll be interesting to see what TM does if these are the outcomes.

Different methodology. Apparently it includes a high turn out among the youth.

And TM will be thrown under the nearest bus if that is the outcome.

Would that make her the shortest term PM? Ans. No - George Canning holds the record for the shortest term as prime minister, serving just 119 days in 1827.

setmefree2

Filo25 wrote: »

Corbyn has now confirmed he will attend tonight's debate, which seems very sensible for him given the way the election is going, the question now will be whether May flip-flops on this and decides to attend.

Difficult call.

kabayiri

Spidernick wrote: »

Whilst there are some interesting replies to my 'bankrupt' comment above, you all seem to have missed the point (if it's my fault, I apologise, but don't think it is). Many people on here have said that Labour made the country 'bankrupt' in 2010 and I was merely pointing out that these people obviously have no idea what 'bankrupt' actually means, so shouldn't use that term. The wider economic issues are, of course, open to debate.

Labour were fire fighting, and the significant ramp up in debt shows that.

They didn't bankrupt the country though.

They did put an extra 1 million on the PS payroll though. They also signed up to some pretty poor PFI deals.

It's not difficult to see why it was always going to take several political terms in office to eliminate the deficit. Politicians introduce policies like the 50p tax rate to raise more money, and people act in self interest to avoid these additional taxes!

Filo25

setmefree2 wrote: »

Difficult call.

Apparently there is "no chance" she is going, although I heard the same thing about a GE before 2020, so I'm not ruling it out just yet!

kabayiri

setmefree2 wrote: »

Different methodology. Apparently it includes a high turn out among the youth.
...

A pollster commented on the radio the other day, to say that young people turnout predictions was one of those areas which cause polling firms headaches.

They may make all sorts of noises on social media, but turning out isn't guaranteed.

The evidence on older people is more solid. They have shown consistent tendency to turn out and vote.

I think social media is 'self selecting'. It's very easy to create your own echo chamber where you believe everybody else shares your own personal bias.

Conrad

Looing back at the polls just prior to GE 2015, the consensus had Labour much higher than the final result.


Polling firms say they've made changes to their methodology to improve accuracy but I do wonder whether they will still be flattering to Labour, because I find left leaning people so much more vocal on FB and other platforms, as well as in BBC audiences (even my uber Tory area saw a very left wing audience attend BBC Any Questions totally unrepresentative of this area), so it's reasonable to assume they may have managed to over represent themselves in polls (some pretending to be genuine swingers / Tories).


A major poll finding after 2015 was that Tories are so hard to reach as they are generally far less 'out there' - and time and again you get all the noise from the left in audiences hissing booing, grandstanding thier compassion credentials which gives a misleading bent. Saw this yet again on Newsnight yesterday.

setmefree2

Spidernick wrote: »

Whilst there are some interesting replies to my 'bankrupt' comment above, you all seem to have missed the point (if it's my fault, I apologise, but don't think it is). Many people on here have said that Labour made the country 'bankrupt' in 2010 and I was merely pointing out that these people obviously have no idea what 'bankrupt' actually means, so shouldn't use that term. The wider economic issues are, of course, open to debate.

The LP were running a budget deficit of £50 billion pa as the global crisis hit - making our situation less than ideal for weathering the global storm.

The same thing can happen again - we are currently running a deficit of £50 billion - 2.5% of GDP. The IFS says LP plans will take this to 5% -

Of course 5% of GDP is not bankrupting the country but what happens if there is a recession?

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

Looing back at the polls just prior to GE 2015, the consensus had Labour much higher than the final result.


Polling firms say they've made changes to their methodology to improve accuracy but I do wonder whether they will still be flattering to Labour, because I find left leaning people so much more vocal on FB and other platforms, as well as in BBC audiences (even my uber Tory area saw a very left wing audience attend BBC Any Questions totally unrepresentative of this area), so it's reasonable to assume they may have managed to over represent themselves in polls (some pretending to be genuine swingers / Tories).


A major poll finding after 2015 was that Tories are so hard to reach as they are generally far less 'out there' - and time and again you get all the noise from the left in audiences hissing booing, grandstanding tier compassion credentials.

As others have said on here - I might well lie to a pollster about my voting intensions.

Spidernick

Corbyn has just upped the ante by agreeing to join the debate tonight:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40105324

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says he will take part in a seven-way BBC general election debate later.


Lib Dem leader Tim Farron, UKIP's Paul Nuttall, SNP deputy leader Angus Robertson, Green co-leader Caroline Lucas and Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood will take part.


Theresa May has refused to take part in any debates, so Home Secretary Amber Rudd will be representing the Tories.

Has he wrong-footed May? It certainly puts her on the back foot and, once again, Corbyn has well exceeded my expectations in this campaign (although it could all go terribly wrong tonight, of course).

kabayiri

setmefree2 wrote: »

...
The same thing can happen again - we are currently running a deficit of £50 billion - 2.5% of GDP. The IFS says LP plans will take this to 5% - what happens if there is a recession?

There is no "if", only a "when".

Only Gordon Brown promised 'no more boom and bust'

(and "Flash" has gone now)