the snap general election thread

setmefree2

kabayiri wrote: »

There is no "if", only a "when".

Only Gordon Brown promised 'no more boom and bust'

(and "Flash" has gone now)

The global economy is doing quite well - so things could feel good for a few years - a bit like it did under Blair.

Spidernick

Conrad wrote: »

Looing back at the polls just prior to GE 2015, the consensus had Labour much higher than the final result.


Polling firms say they've made changes to their methodology to improve accuracy but I do wonder whether they will still be flattering to Labour, because I find left leaning people so much more vocal on FB and other platforms, as well as in BBC audiences (even my uber Tory area saw a very left wing audience attend BBC Any Questions totally unrepresentative of this area), so it's reasonable to assume they may have managed to over represent themselves in polls (some pretending to be genuine swingers / Tories).


A major poll finding after 2015 was that Tories are so hard to reach as they are generally far less 'out there' - and time and again you get all the noise from the left in audiences hissing booing, grandstanding thier compassion credentials which gives a misleading bent. Saw this yet again on Newsnight yesterday.

Although the last election was only two years ago, the world has changed so much I'm not sure just how much store we can put in this. You may well be right, but if Corbyn can actually get the youth vote out (and he seems to 'reach the parts other politicians can't' to paraphrase an old beer advert) it could become very interesting. Time will tell.

kabayiri

setmefree2 wrote: »

As others have said on here - I might well lie to a pollster about my voting intensions.

Glad to see you seeing the light.

Pollsters encourage politicians to treat voters as data points.

Why come and canvass your opinion on the doorstep, when they can get the computer to profile you from where you live/what you drive/where you shop/where you work...

In the words of that most famous of 60s show : "I am not a number, I'm a free man!"

kabayiri

setmefree2 wrote: »

The global economy is doing quite well - so things could feel good for a few years - a bit like it did under Blair.

This is true, but does it come down to being prepared for the unexpected?

mayonnaise

Spidernick wrote: »

Corbyn has just upped the ante by agreeing to join the debate tonight:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40105324



Has he wrong-footed May? It certainly puts her on the back foot and, once again, Corbyn has well exceeded my expectations in this campaign (although it could all go terribly wrong tonight, of course).

I believe it would be marginally better for her to stay away.
As she's only capable of parroting the same old soundbites.

What if someone asks a question not covered by the No.10 soundbite production department aka Nick Timothy & Fiona Hill?? The horror...

Fella

Corbyn will be attacked from the left, not something he's used to. He hasn't demonstrated any ability to think on his feet in the past, let's see how he gets on tonight.

Conrad

Spidernick wrote: »

Corbyn has just upped the ante by agreeing to join the debate tonight:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40105324



Has he wrong-footed May? It certainly puts her on the back foot and, once again, Corbyn has well exceeded my expectations in this campaign (although it could all go terribly wrong tonight, of course).

Lol, of this was Mrs May you would be accusing her of a U-turn or manipulation


Will be just another audience full of hissing lefties all ganging up on Rudd, no wonder so many Tories don't watch TV affairs 'debates' any more.

Conrad

kabayiri wrote: »

This is true, but does it come down to being prepared for the unexpected?

Yes and that's the point.


Having a Labour sized debt is going to leave us ill prepared when the next storm hits. The lefties will scream that no one told them this could happen and will want someone else to blame, a Banker for example.

Filo25

Its safe to say that the country would be less able to withstand a financial shock than it was in 2008 at the moment, if only because Monetary policy is pretty much as slack as it can be, and Government debt is at a much higher level than it was back then which to an extent restricts our ability to go for expansive fiscal policies.

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

Looing back at the polls just prior to GE 2015, the consensus had Labour much higher than the final result.


Polling firms say they've made changes to their methodology to improve accuracy but I do wonder whether they will still be flattering to Labour, because I find left leaning people so much more vocal on FB and other platforms, as well as in BBC audiences (even my uber Tory area saw a very left wing audience attend BBC Any Questions totally unrepresentative of this area), so it's reasonable to assume they may have managed to over represent themselves in polls (some pretending to be genuine swingers / Tories).


A major poll finding after 2015 was that Tories are so hard to reach as they are generally far less 'out there' - and time and again you get all the noise from the left in audiences hissing booing, grandstanding thier compassion credentials which gives a misleading bent. Saw this yet again on Newsnight yesterday.

There was a piece in the Huffington Post yesterday showing that actually pre-adjustment the polls are remarkably similar, Tories had a 3-5 point lead in all of them, the variation in the published polls are largely due to the impact of the Turnout filters and the varying ways that "Don't Knows" are handled.