the snap general election thread

antrobus

zagubov wrote: »

This has been a good time for the government to bury the news about RBS getting sold at a loss to us. I wonder what else they'll try to sneak past us while this distraction is going on.

RBS is not getting sold.

Stop making things up.:)

antrobus

Spidernick wrote: »

I strongly suspect that every other party does not believe that the good of the country and the good of the Conservative Party amount to the same thing. I even more strongly suspect that you did not write what you meant!

I see what you mean.

Yes, what I meant to say was that every political party thinks that their interest and the country's interest are the same thing. Although, come to think of it, Labour has been behaving as if it thinks that the Conservative ought to be in government.:)

System

Facebook and twitter have turned into Corbyn fan clubs.

Images like this popping up every 15 seconds.

http://imgur.com/a/LP5dRp

antrobus

JP08 wrote: »

I wonder if the "young" vote, who apparently weren't interested in turning out for the Referendum but then didn't like the result,

According to this report in the Grauniad, voter turnout for 18-24 year olds was 64% in the referendum. Given that IPSOS-Mori reckon it was only 43% for the 2015 GE, that would actually be quite good.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/young-people-referendum-turnout-brexit-twice-as-high

JP08 wrote: »

...might be more in evidence this time as a result - might make for some unexpected movements.

Turnout for the referendum was supposed to be 90% for the over 65s, compared to 78% for the GE. They voted Conservative by a margin of 2-1 last time around. If they are 'more in evidence' the movements may be of a more expected nature.:)


https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

davomcdave

Malthusian wrote: »

There's a reason general elections are rarely fought on foreign trade policy. There are two parties involved in the negotiation and we are only voting for the leadership of one of them.

It is impossible to win an argument about what Brexit should look like with a Remoaner because if you say "I think we should have freedom of movement" they retort "well the EU won't let us have freedom of movement". And if you say "I think we shouldn't have freedom of movement" they retort "well the EU won't let us not have freedom of movement if we want any trade at all".

Obviously the idea that the EU might shut down all UK trade into the EU is absurd, but it does not matter - the Remainder philosophy is that the EU is an all-powerful entity at which the UK is utterly at mercy, and this conscious self-disempowerment is their answer to everything.

So May would be very stupid to campaign on what Tory policy is and what success looks like. If she says "Vote Conservative and we'll negotiate for freedom of movement / no freedom of movement" there are any number of Eurocrats that will take great delight in saying "We won't allow the UK to have freedom of movement / no freedom of movement" just to cause mischief - which will then be splashed all over the papers and social media causing her great embarrassment even if it doesn't harm the Tories' chances. The question being asked is which party you most trust to handle the process. If you think that's Corbyn's lot then good luck.

Yes because 48% of the population that is different to you in one way is utterly the same as each other in every way.

That's forum logic.

prosaver

ha ha

System

Bleh, nothing would surprise me any more. Labour will probbaly win if they keep tugging at the heartstrings of the "disenfranchised". Obviously learnt a bit from Boris and Nige.

JP08

Antrobus - interesting.

Not sure which way the voting percentages will move. Gut feel is that the over 65 vote will fall back to historic GE levels (after all, they "won"), but the younger vote may feel they have something to fight for still - the few I know do seem to be more politically engaged post Ref - and hence may hold up in the 60%s, may be higher. Either that or they may be so disillusioned after the Ref that they won't bother.

IveSeenTheLight

antrobus wrote: »

It is, of course, entirely possible that the good of the country and the good of the Conservative Party amount to the same thing.:)

In fact, I strongly suspect that every political party believes that these two things always operate in tandem.

Yeah Yeah, but under a fixed term parliament system, I stand by that you should not be able to call for a GE in these circumstances.
It should be immediately on the resignation of the PM, else within the fixed term timeline.

StevieJ

wotsthat wrote: »

A large majority would mean she'd be able to compose a cabinet without reference to how anyone voted in the referendum.

Hopefully Boris Johnson would be toast.

They are there to carry the can when it goes 'tits up', the last thing she wants is to get rid of them. She just wants more control over them.